2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota
November 2, 2004
Turnout78.77%[1] Increase
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 9[lower-alpha 1] 0
Popular vote 1,445,014 1,346,695
Percentage 51.09% 47.61%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota took place on November 2, 2004 as part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose ten representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Minnesota was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 3.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a major swing state in 2004 based on pre-election polling. The state is historically a blue state, as the last Republican to carry the state in a presidential election was Richard Nixon in 1972. However, in 2000 Al Gore carried the state with just 48% of the vote, by a margin of just 2.5%. In 2004, Minnesota was the only state to split its electoral votes, as a faithless elector pledged to Kerry cast a ballot for John Edwards (written as John Ewards), his running mate.

Caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Lean D
Cook Political Report Tossup
Research 2000 Lean D
Zogby International Likely D
Washington Post Tossup
Washington Dispatch Likely D
Washington Times Tossup
The New York Times Tossup
CNN Likely D
Newsweek Tossup
Associated Press Lean D
Rasmussen Reports Tossup

Polling

Minnesota was considered a swing state based on its tight poll numbers. In early 2004, Kerry was leading in every poll against Bush, sometimes even reaching 50%. However, in the summer, Kerry was still leading in most of the polls but the gap was very small. It wasn't until late October when Bush was leading him. In the last poll by Rasmussen Reports, Kerry won with 48% to 47%, but left a lot of undecided voters. In the last 3 polling average, Kerry lead 49% to 47%, but with Bush winning 2 of 3.[3] The last poll average by Real Clear Politics showed Kerry leading 49% to 45%.[4] Overall polls showed a lot of undecided voters. On election day, Kerry won with 51% of the vote.

Fundraising

Bush raised $2,507,181.[5] Kerry raised $2,635,150.[6]

Advertising and visits

Both tickets visited the state 7 times.[7] A total of $1 million to $3 million was spent each week.[8]

Analysis

Kerry on the campaign trail in Rochester, Minnesota

Minnesota is the state with the longest streak as a blue state, having last backed the Republican presidential nominee in Richard Nixon's 1972 landslide, and even sticking with the Democrats during Ronald Reagan's two landslides in 1980 and 1984. However, in 2000 and 2004 it was considered a battleground state. Both campaigns invested resources in it, and it ultimately stayed in the Democratic column both times but by relatively narrow margins.

In 2004, the county results were fairly uniform across the state; only a handful of counties had either Bush or Kerry getting over 60% of the vote, and no county had either candidate with over 70% of the vote. Despite winning the state, Kerry won just three of eight congressional districts: Minnesota's 4th congressional district, Minnesota's 5th congressional district, and Minnesota's 8th congressional district.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Washington County, Olmsted County, and Dakota County voted for the Republican candidate. This was the first time since 1928 that a Republican had won a majority in Anoka County. Bush became the first ever Republican to win the White House without carrying Nicollet County.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic (DFL) John Kerry 1,445,014 51.09% 9
Republican Party George W. Bush (Inc.) 1,346,695 47.61% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 18,683 0.66% 0
Libertarian Party Michael Badnarik 4,639 0.16% 0
Green Party David Cobb 4,408 0.16% 0
Constitution Party Michael Peroutka 3,074 0.11% 0
Independent Write Ins 2,530 0.09% 0
Christian Freedom Party Thomas Harens 2,387 0.08% 0
Socialist Equality Party Bill Van Auken 539 0.02% 0
Socialist Workers Party Roger Calero 416 0.01% 0
Socialist Party USA (Write-in) Walt Brown (Write-in) 2 0.00% 0
Democratic (DFL) John Edwards 0 0.00% 1
Totals 2,828,387 100.00% 10
Voter Turnout (Voting Age Population) 74.2%

By county

County John Kerry
DFL		 George W. Bush
Republican		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total votes cast
#  % #  % #  % #  %
Aitkin 4,539 48.02% 4,768 50.44% 145 1.53% -229 -2.42% 9,452
Anoka 80,226 46.09% 91,853 52.77% 1,987 1.14% -11,627 -6.68% 174,066
Becker 6,756 40.21% 9,795 58.30% 250 1.49% -3,039 -18.09% 16,801
Beltrami 10,592 50.13% 10,237 48.45% 302 1.43% 355 1.68% 21,131
Benton 8,059 43.84% 10,043 54.63% 282 1.43% -1,984 -10.79% 18,384
Big Stone 1,536 50.08% 1,483 48.35% 48 1.57% 53 1.73% 3,067
Blue Earth 16,865 50.92% 15,737 47.52% 517 1.56% 1,128 3.40% 33,119
Brown 5,158 37.44% 8,395 60.93% 225 1.63% -3,237 -23.49% 13,778
Carlton 11,462 62.52% 6,642 36.23% 230 1.25% 4,820 26.29% 18,334
Carver 16,456 36.24% 28,510 62.78% 445 0.98% -12,054 -26.54% 45,411
Cass 6,835 42.96% 8,875 55.78% 200 1.26% -2,040 -12.82% 15,910
Chippewa 3,424 51.83% 3,089 46.76% 93 1.41% 335 5.07% 6,606
Chisago 12,219 43.24% 15,705 55.57% 336 1.19% -3,486 -12.33% 28,260
Clay 12,989 46.83% 14,365 51.79% 383 1.38% -1,376 -4.96% 27,737
Clearwater 1,871 42.90% 2,438 55.90% 52 1.19% -567 -13.00% 4,361
Cook 1,733 52.47% 1,489 45.08% 81 2.45% 244 7.39% 3,303
Cottonwood 2,726 42.80% 3,557 55.85% 86 1.36% -831 -13.05% 6,369
Crow Wing 14,005 41.75% 19,106 56.96% 434 1.29% -5,101 -15.21% 33,545
Dakota 104,635 48.48% 108,959 50.48% 2,252 1.04% -4,324 -2.00% 215,846
Dodge 4,117 41.72% 5,593 56.68% 158 1.60% -1,476 -14.96% 9,868
Douglas 8,219 40.47% 11,793 58.07% 297 1.46% -3,574 -17.60% 20,309
Faribault 3,767 43.39% 4,794 55.22% 120 1.38% -1,027 -11.83% 8,681
Fillmore 5,825 49.79% 5,694 48.67% 179 1.53% 131 1.12% 11,698
Freeborn 9,733 55.09% 7,681 43.48% 252 1.43% 2,052 11.61% 17,666
Goodhue 12,103 47.26% 13,134 51.29% 371 1.45% -1,031 -4.03% 25,608
Grant 1,856 48.60% 1,893 49.57% 70 1.83% -37 -0.97% 3,819
Hennepin 383,841 59.33% 255,133 39.43% 8,007 1.24% 128,708 19.90% 646,981
Houston 5,276 47.61% 5,631 50.81% 175 1.58% -355 -3.20% 11,082
Hubbard 4,741 41.81% 6,444 56.83% 155 1.37% -1,703 -15.02% 11,340
Isanti 7,883 40.82% 11,190 57.94% 240 1.24% -3,307 -17.12% 19,313
Itasca 13,290 54.54% 10,705 43.93% 372 1.52% 2,585 10.61% 24,367
Jackson 2,652 45.89% 3,024 52.33% 103 1.78% -372 -6.44% 5,779
Kanabec 3,592 43.55% 4,527 54.89% 129 1.56% -935 -11.34% 8,248
Kandiyohi 9,337 43.74% 11,704 54.82% 308 1.45% -2,367 -11.08% 21,349
Kittson 1,333 49.70% 1,307 48.73% 42 1.57% 26 0.97% 2,682
Koochiching 3,662 50.10% 3,539 48.42% 108 1.48% 123 1.68% 7,309
Lac Qui Parle 2,390 52.63% 2,093 46.09% 58 1.27% 297 6.54% 4,541
Lake 4,212 59.57% 2,769 39.16% 90 1.27% 1,433 20.41% 7,071
Lake of the Woods 921 38.38% 1,428 59.50% 51 2.13% -507 -21.12% 2,400
Le Sueur 6,466 44.83% 7,746 53.70% 212 1.46% -1,280 -8.87% 14,424
Lincoln 1,558 46.62% 1,736 51.94% 48 1.44% -178 -5.32% 3,342
Lyon 5,292 41.76% 7,203 56.84% 178 1.40% -1,911 -15.08% 12,673
McLeod 6,712 36.45% 11,407 61.95% 293 1.60% -4,695 -25.50% 18,412
Mahnomen 1,339 53.39% 1,132 45.14% 37 1.48% 207 8.25% 2,508
Marshall 2,308 41.50% 3,187 57.30% 67 1.21% -879 -15.80% 5,562
Martin 4,590 41.55% 6,311 57.13% 146 1.33% -1,721 -15.58% 11,047
Meeker 5,292 42.91% 6,854 55.57% 188 1.52% -1,562 -12.66% 12,334
Mille Lacs 5,677 43.45% 7,194 55.06% 194 1.48% -1,517 -11.61% 13,065
Morrison 6,794 40.54% 9,698 57.87% 266 1.59% -2,904 -17.33% 16,758
Mower 12,334 60.99% 7,591 37.54% 297 1.47% 4,743 23.45% 20,222
Murray 2,218 44.38% 2,719 54.40% 61 1.22% -501 -10.02% 4,998
Nicollet 8,797 49.59% 8,689 48.98% 255 1.43% 108 0.61% 17,741
Nobles 3,898 42.35% 5,159 56.05% 147 1.60% -1,261 -13.70% 9,204
Norman 1,954 51.29% 1,794 47.09% 62 1.62% 160 4.20% 3,810
Olmsted 33,285 46.50% 37,371 52.21% 919 1.29% -4,086 -5.71% 71,575
Otter Tail 12,038 37.41% 19,734 61.33% 406 1.26% -7,696 -23.92% 32,178
Pennington 3,117 44.42% 3,767 53.68% 133 1.89% -650 -9.26% 7,017
Pine 7,228 49.79% 7,033 48.44% 257 1.78% 195 1.35% 14,518
Pipestone 1,900 37.76% 3,066 60.93% 66 1.31% -1,166 -23.17% 5,032
Polk 6,729 42.95% 8,724 55.68% 215 1.37% -1,995 -12.73% 15,668
Pope 3,301 49.27% 3,303 49.30% 96 1.43% -2 -0.03% 6,700
Ramsey 171,846 63.04% 97,096 35.62% 3,635 1.34% 74,750 27.42% 272,577
Red Lake 963 44.24% 1,164 53.47% 50 2.29% -201 -9.23% 2,177
Redwood 3,104 38.14% 4,898 60.18% 137 1.68% -1,794 -22.04% 8,139
Renville 3,787 45.36% 4,430 53.06% 132 1.58% -643 -7.70% 8,349
Rice 16,425 53.42% 13,881 45.15% 439 1.43% 2,544 8.27% 30,745
Rock 2,000 38.53% 3,111 59.93% 80 1.54% -1,111 -21.40% 5,191
Roseau 2,442 30.87% 5,355 67.69% 114 1.44% -2,913 -36.82% 7,911
St. Louis 77,958 65.20% 40,112 33.55% 1,495 1.25% 37,846 31.65% 119,565
Scott 23,958 39.51% 36,055 59.46% 626 1.03% -12,097 -19.95% 60,639
Sherburne 15,816 38.15% 25,182 60.75% 456 1.10% -9,366 -22.60% 41,454
Sibley 3,109 39.11% 4,669 58.74% 171 2.15% -1,560 -19.63% 7,949
Stearns 32,659 43.21% 41,726 55.21% 1,192 1.58% -9,067 -12.00% 75,577
Steele 7,994 42.76% 10,389 55.57% 312 1.67% -2,395 -12.81% 18,695
Stevens 2,821 47.42% 3,030 50.93% 98 1.64% -209 -3.51% 5,949
Swift 3,165 55.19% 2,481 43.26% 89 1.55% 684 11.93% 5,735
Todd 5,034 41.21% 6,945 56.86% 235 1.92% -1,911 -15.65% 12,214
Traverse 1,026 47.92% 1,076 50.26% 39 1.82% -50 -2.34% 2,141
Wabasha 5,548 46.88% 6,120 51.71% 167 1.41% -572 -4.83% 11,835
Wadena 2,791 39.35% 4,214 59.41% 88 1.24% -1,423 -20.06% 7,093
Waseca 4,179 42.64% 5,457 55.68% 164 1.67% -1,278 -13.04% 9,800
Washington 61,395 47.80% 65,751 51.19% 1,303 1.01% -4,356 -3.39% 128,449
Watonwan 2,514 45.03% 2,970 53.20% 99 1.77% -456 -8.17% 5,583
Wilkin 1,169 33.14% 2,303 65.30% 55 1.56% -1,134 -32.16% 3,527
Winona 14,231 51.90% 12,686 46.26% 505 1.84% 1,545 5.64% 27,422
Wright 22,618 37.99% 36,176 60.77% 740 1.24% -13,558 -22.78% 59,534
Yellow Medicine 2,799 48.61% 2,878 49.98% 81 1.40% -79 -1.37% 5,758
Totals1,445,01451.09%1,346,69547.61%36,6781.40%98,3193.48%2,828,387
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Bush won 5 of 8 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[9]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 51% 47% Gil Gutknecht
2nd 54% 45% John Kline
3rd 51% 48% Jim Ramstad
4th 37% 62% Betty McCollum
5th 28% 71% Martin Olav Sabo
6th 57% 42% Mark Kennedy
7th 55% 43% Collin Peterson
8th 46% 53% Jim Oberstar

Electors

Technically the voters of Minnesota cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Minnesota is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. Nine were pledged for Kerry/Edwards, but one made a mistake and ended up voting for Ewards/Edwards[10] and thus became a faithless elector. Minnesota's electors cast secret ballots, so unless one of the electors claims responsibility, it is unlikely that the identity of the faithless elector will ever be known. As a result of this incident, Minnesota Statutes were amended to provide for public balloting of the electors' votes and invalidation of a vote cast for someone other than the candidate to whom the elector is pledged.[11]

  1. Sonja Berg
  2. Vi Grooms-Alban
  3. Matthew Little
  4. Michael Meuers
  5. Tim O'Brien
  6. Lil Ortendahl
  7. Everett Pettiford
  8. Jean Schiebel
  9. Frank Simon
  10. Chandler Harrison Stevens

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Although John Kerry won Minnesota's 10 electoral votes, 1 faithless elector voted for John Edwards (written as John Ewards) instead of Kerry

References

  1. ↑ "Office of the State Of Minnesota Secretary of State". www.sos.state.mn.us. Retrieved July 22, 2017.
  2. ↑ "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved January 15, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  3. ↑ "2004 Presidential Election Polls. Minnesota Polls". US Election Atles.
  4. ↑ "RealClear Politics - Polls". Archived from the original on July 6, 2004.
  5. ↑ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
  6. ↑ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
  7. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  8. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  9. ↑ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
  10. ↑ "MPR: Minnesota elector gives Edwards a vote; Kerry gets other nine".
  11. ↑ "208.08, 2008 Minnesota Statutes". Revisor.leg.state.mn.us. Retrieved May 5, 2009.
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