2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota

November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Tina Smith Jason Lewis Kevin O'Connor
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican Legal Marijuana Now
Popular vote 1,566,522 1,398,145 190,154
Percentage 48.74% 43.50% 5.91%

Smith:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Lewis:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
     No votes

U.S. senator before election

Tina Smith
Democratic (DFL)

Elected U.S. Senator

Tina Smith
Democratic (DFL)

The 2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Minnesota, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and other state and local elections. Some Republican pundits and strategists believed Minnesota to be a potential pickup opportunity due to its increasingly favorable demographics and unexpectedly close result in the 2016 presidential election, along with potential backlash from the 2020 George Floyd protests, originating after the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis. However, every poll showed incumbent Democratic Senator Tina Smith in the lead by varying degrees.

Smith was reelected to a full term in office by a margin of 5.2 points, making this the closest Senate election in Minnesota since 2008. The primary took place on August 11.[1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Steve Carlson, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 and write-in candidate for president in 2016[3][4][5]
  • Ahmad Hassan[5]
  • Paula Overby, Green Party nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018[6][5]
  • Christopher Seymore, Sr.[5]

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Results

Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Smith—>90%
  •   Smith—80–90%
  •   Smith—70–80%
Democratic primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic (DFL) Tina Smith (incumbent) 497,498 87.14%
Democratic (DFL) Paula Overby 30,497 5.34%
Democratic (DFL) Ahmad Hassan 20,037 3.51%
Democratic (DFL) Steve Carlson 16,429 2.88%
Democratic (DFL) Christopher Seymore 6,480 1.13%
Total votes 570,941 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • John L. Berman[5]
  • Bob Carney Jr.[5][33]
  • Cynthia Gail, art teacher[34]
  • James Reibestein[5]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Jason Lewis

Results

Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Lewis—80–90%
  •   Lewis—70–80%
  •   Lewis—60–70%
  •   Lewis—50–60%
Republican primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jason Lewis 191,290 78.11%
Republican Cynthia Gail 17,675 7.22%
Republican John Berman 16,213 6.62%
Republican Bob Carney Jr. 10,503 4.29%
Republican James Reibestein 9,210 3.76%
Total votes 244,891 100.00%

Other candidates

Grassroots - Legalize Cannabis

Nominee

  • Oliver Steinberg[5]

Results

Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Grassroots—LC Oliver Steinberg 3,275 100.00%
Total votes 3,275 100.00%

Nominee

  • Kevin O'Connor[5]

Primary results

County Results for Kevin O'Connor:
Map legend
  •   8%
  •   7%
  •   6%
  •   5%
  •   4%
  •   3%
Legal Marijuana Now primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Legal Marijuana Now Kevin O'Connor 6,996 100.00%
Total votes 6,996 100.00%

Independent write-in candidate

Declared

  • George Dennis Jr.[47]
  • Josh D. Ondich, perennial candidate[48][49]

General election

Debate

Two general election debates were held. The first, on October 2, 2020, was hosted by Minnesota Public Radio and was attended by Smith and Lewis.[50] The second debate was hosted by Twin Cities PBS on October 23, 2020, and attended only by Lewis.[51]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[52] Safe D October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[53] Safe D October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[54] Likely D November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[55] Likely D October 30, 2020
Politico[56] Likely D November 2, 2020
RCP[57] Tossup October 23, 2020
DDHQ[58] Likely D November 3, 2020
538[59] Safe D November 2, 2020
Economist[60] Likely D November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Jason Lewis (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. representatives
Other Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tina
Smith (D)
Jason
Lewis (R)
Other Undecided
Research Co. October 31 – November 1, 2020 450 (LV) 4.6% 50% 39% 2%[lower-alpha 1] 9%
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 1,259 (LV) ± 2.8% 54% 44% 2%[lower-alpha 2]
Swayable October 23 – November 1, 2020 430 (LV) ± 6.1% 55% 46%
Public Policy Polling October 29–30, 2020 770 (V) 51% 42% 6%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart October 25–30, 2020 1,138 (LV) 53% 44% 3%[lower-alpha 3]
St. Cloud State University October 10–29, 2020 372 (A) ± 6.7% 53% 36%
SurveyUSA Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 23–27, 2020 649 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 42% 3%[lower-alpha 4] 10%
Gravis Marketing October 24–26, 2020 657 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 39% 8%
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 17–20, 2020 840 (LV) ± 3.6% 54% 43% 2%[lower-alpha 5] 1%
SurveyUSA Archived October 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 16–20, 2020 625 (LV) ± 5% 43% 42% 3%[lower-alpha 4] 12%
Change Research October 12–15, 2020[lower-alpha 6] 1,021 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 44% 4%[lower-alpha 7] 5%
SurveyUSA Archived October 11, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 1–6, 2020 929 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 37% 4%[lower-alpha 8] 16%
Suffolk University September 20–24, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 35% 6%[lower-alpha 9] 14%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy September 21–23, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 41% 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies September 12–17, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.7% 51% 36% 2%[lower-alpha 10] 11%
CBS News/YouGov September 9–11, 2020 1,087 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 40% 2%[lower-alpha 1] 10%
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 8–10, 2020 814 (LV) ± 3.9% 49% 40% 0%[lower-alpha 11] 11%[lower-alpha 12]
SurveyUSA September 4–7, 2020 553 (LV) ± 5.2% 47% 36% 3%[lower-alpha 4] 14%
Public Policy Polling September 3–4, 2020 877 (V) ± 3.3% 49% 41% 3%[lower-alpha 13] 7%
Harper Polling (R)[upper-alpha 1] August 30 – September 1, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 41% 10%
Emerson College August 8–10, 2020 733 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 45% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] July 22–23, 2020 1,218 (V) ± 3.2% 48% 39% 13%
Harper Polling (R)[upper-alpha 1] May 26–28, 2020 510 (LV) 46% 35% 20%
Hypothetical polling
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Other Undecided
PPP Sep 3–4, 2020 877 (V) ± 3.3% 51% 44% 4%
Harper Polling/Jason Lewis[upper-alpha 1] Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.38% 45% 43% 3%[lower-alpha 13] 9%
Emerson College Aug 8–10, 2020 733 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 46% 7%
Harper Polling (R)[upper-alpha 1] May 26–28, 2020 510 (LV) 44% 40%

Results

United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2020[87]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic (DFL) Tina Smith (incumbent) 1,566,522 48.74% -4.23%
Republican Jason Lewis 1,398,145 43.50% +1.15%
Legal Marijuana Now Kevin O'Connor 190,154 5.91% +2.21%
Grassroots—LC Oliver Steinberg 57,174 1.78% N/A
Write-in 2,261 0.07% +0.03%
Total votes 3,214,256 100.00% N/A
Democratic (DFL) hold
By county
County[88] Tina Smith
DFL
Jason Lewis
Republican
Kevin O'Connor
LMN
Oliver Steinberg
G—LC
Write-in Margin Total votes
# % # % # % # % # %
Aitkin 3,474 35.29 5,761 58.52 462 4.69 143 1.45 5 0.05 -2,287 -23.23 9,845
Anoka 89,416 43.24 98,043 47.41 15,385 7.44 3,842 1.86 118 0.06 -8,627 -4.17 206,804
Becker 6,370 33.49 11,274 59.28 1,069 5.62 297 1.56 9 0.05 -4,904 -25.78 19,019
Beltrami 9,987 41.88 11,468 48.09 1,804 7.57 564 2.37 22 0.09 -1,481 -6.21 23,845
Benton 6,835 31.39 12,915 59.32 1,539 7.07 465 2.14 17 0.08 -6,080 -27.93 21,771
Big Stone 1,106 37.52 1,637 55.53 163 5.53 39 1.32 3 0.10 -531 -18.01 2,948
Blue Earth 16,527 46.78 15,040 42.57 2,847 8.06 871 2.47 41 0.12 1,487 4.21 35,326
Brown 4,808 33.23 8,736 60.38 690 4.77 224 1.55 10 0.07 -3,928 -27.15 14,468
Carlton 9,577 48.01 8,906 44.65 1,092 5.47 361 1.81 11 0.06 671 3.36 19,947
Carver 27,616 42.16 33,623 51.33 3,292 5.03 928 1.42 38 0.06 -6,007 -9.17 65,497
Cass 5,913 32.66 10,877 60.08 966 5.33 333 1.84 16 0.09 -4,964 -27.42 18,105
Chippewa 2,270 34.77 3,807 58.32 358 5.48 90 1.38 3 0.05 -1,537 -23.54 6,528
Chisago 11,014 32.62 19,700 58.34 2,340 6.93 692 2.05 20 0.06 -8,686 -25.72 33,766
Clay 15,136 47.99 13,308 42.20 2,348 7.45 716 2.27 29 0.09 1,828 5.80 31,537
Clearwater 1,224 26.50 3,078 66.65 242 5.24 69 1.49 5 0.11 -1,854 -40.15 4,618
Cook 2,344 63.08 1,162 31.27 133 3.58 73 1.96 4 0.11 1,182 31.81 3,716
Cottonwood 1,794 29.94 3,796 63.35 321 5.36 80 1.33 1 0.02 -2,002 -33.41 5,992
Crow Wing 12,964 32.76 23,792 60.11 2,032 5.13 774 1.96 16 0.04 -10,828 -27.36 39,578
Dakota 131,394 50.89 107,117 41.49 15,318 5.93 4,162 1.61 196 0.08 24,277 9.40 258,187
Dodge 4,013 33.45 6,924 57.71 806 6.72 248 2.07 6 0.05 -2,911 -24.26 11,997
Douglas 7,617 32.03 14,775 62.13 1,055 4.44 321 1.35 14 0.06 -7,158 -30.10 23,782
Faribault 2,531 32.66 4,624 59.66 444 5.73 148 1.91 3 0.04 -2,093 -27.01 7,750
Fillmore 4,696 39.22 6,440 53.79 625 5.22 205 1.71 6 0.05 -1,744 -14.57 11,972
Freeborn 6,797 41.09 8,364 50.57 1,057 6.39 313 1.89 10 0.06 -1,567 -9.47 16,541
Goodhue 11,186 39.45 15,171 53.50 1,486 5.24 489 1.72 25 0.09 -3,985 -14.05 28,357
Grant 1,349 37.51 2,044 56.84 163 4.53 39 1.08 1 0.03 -695 -19.33 3,596
Hennepin 478,129 64.46 209,754 28.28 41,282 5.56 12,130 1.63 496 0.07 268,375 36.18 741,791
Houston 4,478 39.96 5,778 51.56 700 6.25 243 2.17 8 0.07 -1,300 -11.60 11,207
Hubbard 4,281 33.43 7,713 60.23 572 4.47 232 1.81 7 0.06 -3,432 -26.80 12,805
Isanti 6,751 28.34 14,774 62.01 1,671 7.01 608 2.55 20 0.08 -8,023 -33.68 23,824
Itasca 10,463 39.88 13,949 53.17 1,353 5.16 458 1.74 14 0.05 -3,486 -13.29 26,237
Jackson 1,744 30.55 3,524 61.74 323 5.66 115 2.01 2 0.04 -1,780 -31.18 5,708
Kanabec 2,612 28.91 5,657 62.62 577 6.39 185 2.05 3 0.03 -3,045 -33.71 9,034
Kandiyohi 8,117 35.32 13,388 58.25 1,151 5.01 312 1.36 16 0.07 -5,271 -22.93 22,984
Kittson 1,116 42.97 1,350 51.98 98 3.77 32 1.23 1 0.04 -234 -9.01 2,597
Koochiching 2,637 39.08 3,629 53.78 365 5.41 114 1.69 3 0.04 -992 -14.70 6,748
Lac Qui Parle 1,477 37.08 2,314 58.10 139 3.49 52 1.31 1 0.02 -837 -21.01 3,983
Lake 3,485 48.95 3,155 44.31 332 4.66 144 2.02 4 0.06 330 4.64 7,120
Lake of the Woods 650 27.61 1,545 65.63 121 5.14 37 1.57 1 0.04 -895 -38.02 2,354
Le Sueur 5,401 32.74 9,825 59.56 969 5.87 297 1.80 5 0.03 -4,424 -26.82 16,497
Lincoln 911 29.55 1,936 62.80 183 5.94 49 1.59 4 0.13 -1,025 -33.25 3,083
Lyon 4,464 35.03 7,401 58.08 668 5.24 195 1.53 14 0.11 -2,937 -23.05 12,742
Mahnomen 1,039 45.85 1,007 44.44 169 7.46 48 2.12 3 0.13 32 1.41 2,266
Marshall 1,490 29.73 3,255 64.96 198 3.95 62 1.24 6 0.12 -1,765 -35.22 5,011
Martin 3,348 30.79 6,707 61.68 613 5.64 200 1.84 6 0.05 -3,359 -30.89 10,874
McLeod 6,114 29.64 12,875 62.43 1,223 5.93 393 1.91 19 0.09 -6,761 -32.78 20,624
Meeker 3,889 29.12 8,575 64.20 664 4.97 221 1.65 7 0.05 -4,686 -35.08 13,356
Mille Lacs 4,123 28.74 8,851 61.69 1,025 7.14 334 2.33 15 0.10 -4,728 -32.95 14,348
Morrison 4,452 23.25 13,368 69.82 1,012 5.29 307 1.60 7 0.04 -8,916 -46.57 19,146
Mower 8,472 44.92 8,615 45.68 1,380 7.32 385 2.04 7 0.04 -143 -0.76 18,859
Murray 1,448 30.15 3,081 64.15 221 4.60 52 1.08 1 0.02 -1,633 -34.00 4,803
Nicollet 8,992 47.64 8,397 44.48 1,062 5.63 412 2.18 13 0.07 595 3.15 18,876
Nobles 2,776 32.87 4,959 58.72 543 6.43 162 1.92 5 0.06 -2,183 -25.85 8,445
Norman 1,497 44.59 1,617 48.17 193 5.75 48 1.43 2 0.06 -120 -3.57 3,357
Olmsted 45,543 51.22 36,972 41.58 4,730 5.32 1,604 1.80 60 0.07 8,571 9.64 88,909
Otter Tail 11,728 32.75 21,738 60.70 1,817 5.07 510 1.42 19 0.05 -10,010 -27.95 35,812
Pennington 2,574 35.76 3,919 54.45 566 7.86 133 1.85 5 0.07 -1,345 -18.69 7,197
Pine 5,055 32.16 9,341 59.44 1,005 6.39 310 1.97 5 0.03 -4,286 -27.27 15,716
Pipestone 1,200 24.68 3,324 68.37 264 5.43 71 1.46 3 0.06 -2,124 -43.69 4,862
Polk 5,577 36.45 8,559 55.94 917 5.99 236 1.54 10 0.06 -2,982 -19.49 15,299
Pope 2,390 34.66 4,135 59.96 290 4.20 77 1.12 4 0.06 -1,745 -25.30 6,896
Ramsey 188,784 65.55 73,638 25.57 19,087 6.63 6,158 2.14 324 0.11 115,146 39.98 287,991
Red Lake 769 35.92 1,222 57.08 114 5.32 33 1.54 3 1.40 -453 -21.16 2,141
Redwood 2,297 28.06 5,415 66.15 355 4.34 114 1.39 5 0.06 -3,118 -38.09 8,186
Renville 2,500 31.47 4,927 62.01 390 4.91 122 1.54 6 0.07 -2,427 -30.55 7,945
Rice 16,201 46.20 15,999 45.63 2,138 6.10 701 2.00 24 0.07 202 0.58 35,063
Rock 1,461 28.42 3,286 63.93 294 5.72 98 1.91 1 0.02 -1,825 -35.51 5,140
Roseau 2,321 27.93 5,494 66.11 396 4.76 95 1.14 4 0.05 -3,173 -38.18 8,310
Scott 35,758 41.34 44,215 51.11 5,218 6.03 1,269 1.47 46 0.05 -8,457 -9.78 86,506
Sherburne 16,584 30.46 33,145 60.88 3,702 6.80 974 1.79 42 0.08 -16,561 -30.42 54,447
Sibley 2,368 28.52 5,391 64.94 426 5.13 112 1.35 5 0.06 -3,023 -36.41 8,302
St. Louis 63,036 53.81 45,016 38.43 6,545 5.59 2,451 2.09 87 0.07 18,020 15.38 117,135
Stearns 29,931 35.89 47,080 56.45 4,843 5.81 1,484 1.78 64 0.08 -17,149 -20.56 83,402
Steele 7,412 36.00 11,358 55.16 1,381 6.71 435 2.11 5 0.02 -3,946 -19.16 20,591
Stevens 1,906 38.02 2,848 56.81 192 3.83 67 1.34 0 0.00 -942 -18.79 5,013
Swift 1,838 35.70 3,020 58.66 226 4.39 63 1.22 1 0.02 -1,182 -22.96 5,148
Todd 3,354 25.68 8,842 67.70 650 4.98 205 1.57 10 0.08 -5,488 -42.02 13,061
Traverse 656 35.87 1,045 57.13 98 5.36 27 1.48 3 0.16 -389 -21.27 1,829
Wabasha 4,513 35.02 7,535 58.47 643 4.99 190 1.47 5 0.04 -3,022 -23.45 12,886
Wadena 1,977 26.09 5,041 66.52 419 5.53 137 1.81 4 0.05 -3,064 -40.43 7,578
Waseca 3,365 32.95 6,043 59.17 629 6.16 172 1.68 4 0.04 -2,678 -26.22 10,213
Washington 80,479 49.21 71,906 43.97 8,382 5.12 2,679 1.64 106 0.06 8,573 5.24 163,552
Watonwan 1,960 38.48 2,752 54.02 298 5.85 81 1.59 3 0.06 -792 -15.55 5,094
Wilkin 1,095 32.61 1,988 59.20 203 6.05 71 2.11 1 0.03 -893 -26.59 3,358
Winona 12,002 45.48 11,961 45.32 1,813 6.87 594 2.25 20 0.08 41 0.16 26,390
Wright 25,896 34.96 48,173 65.04 5,009 6.76 1,523 2.06 60 0.08 -22,277 -30.08 74,069
Yellow Medicine 1,678 30.78 3,436 63.02 270 4.95 65 1.19 3 0.06 -1,758 -32.24 5,452
Totals 1,566,522 48.74 1,398,145 43.50 190,154 5.92 57,174 1.78 2,261 0.07 168,377 5.24 3,214,256
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Smith and Lewis each won 4 congressional districts.

District Smith Lewis Representative
1st 41.9% 48.8% Jim Hagedorn
2nd 47.9% 44.5% Angie Craig
3rd 53.1% 40.1% Dean Phillips
4th 61.7% 30.1% Betty McCollum
5th 73.4% 18.3% Ilhan Omar
6th 36% 55.7% Tom Emmer
7th 34% 58.9% Collin Peterson
Michelle Fischbach
8th 40% 52.3% Pete Stauber

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 "Someone else" with 2%
  2. "Other candidate or write-in" with 2%
  3. "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 3%
  4. 1 2 3 "Some other candidate" with 3%
  5. O'Connor (LMN) and Steinberg (GLC) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
  6. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  7. O'Connor (LMN) with 3%; Steinberg (GLC) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  8. "Some other candidate" with 4%
  9. O'Connor (LMN) and "Refused" with 2%; Steinberg (GLC) and "Other" with 1%
  10. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%
  11. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  12. Includes "Refused"
  13. 1 2 "Someone else" with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by Lewis' campaign
  2. Giffords endorsed Tina Smith prior to the sampling period

References

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