2016 United States presidential election in Vermont
November 8, 2016
Turnout67.95% Increase
 
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Bernie Sanders
(write-in)
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Home state New York New York Vermont
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence none
Electoral vote 3 0 0
Popular vote 178,573 95,369 18,218
Percentage 55.72% 29.76% 5.68%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.

The 2016 United States presidential election in Vermont was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Vermont voters chose three electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders received unsolicited write-in votes.

Clinton won Vermont with 55.7% of the vote and[1] a vote margin of 25.9%, a substantial decline from Barack Obama's 35.6% margin in 2012.[2] Trump received 29.8% of the vote statewide and carried Essex County—the most rural and sparsely populated county in the state, thus making him the first Republican presidential candidate to win a county in Vermont since George W. Bush in 2004.

After voting Republican in all but one election from 1856 to 1988, Vermont has since become one of the most reliably Democratic strongholds in the nation. In 2016, Trump became only the second Republican, after George W. Bush, to win the White House without carrying Vermont.

Vermont Senator and Democratic primary candidate Bernie Sanders, who had endorsed Clinton after she won the primary, received 5.7% of the vote through write-ins, the highest write-in draft campaign percentage for a statewide presidential candidate in history.[3] Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, received 3.1%, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein received 2.1%.[4] Trump's 29.76% vote share is the worst for a Republican presidential nominee in Vermont history.

Primary elections

On March 1, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Vermont voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian parties. Voters who were unaffiliated chose any 1 primary in which to vote.

Democratic primary

The 2016 Vermont Democratic primary took place on March 1 as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, dubbed "Super Tuesday," Democratic primaries were held in 10 other states plus American Samoa, while the Republican Party held primaries in 11 states including their own Vermont primary.

As Sanders was an extremely popular favorite son, there was no campaign to speak of and all pledged delegates were given to Sanders, due to Clinton getting less than 15% of the popular vote. Sanders won every municipality in the state.

Republican primary

Vermont Republican primary, March 1, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 19,974 32.34% 8 0 8
John Kasich 18,534 30.01% 8 0 8
Marco Rubio 11,781 19.08% 0 0 0
Ted Cruz 5,932 9.61% 0 0 0
Ben Carson 2,551 4.13% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 1,106 1.79% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 423 0.68% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 361 0.58% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 212 0.34% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 164 0.27% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 61,756 100.00% 16 0 16
Source: The Green Papers

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[5] Safe D November 6, 2016
CNN[6] Safe D November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[7] Safe D November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[8] Safe D November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[9] Safe D November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] Safe D November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[11] Safe D November 8, 2016
Fox News[12] Safe D November 7, 2016

Polling

Hillary Clinton won every poll pre-election by double digits. Interestingly, she only reached 50% in the last poll, leading 50% to 22%, which may indicate support for writing in Bernie Sanders or other third party candidates. The average of the final three polls showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump 48% to 22%.[13]

Results

2016 United States presidential election in Vermont[14][15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hillary Clinton 178,573 55.72%
Republican Donald Trump 95,369 29.76%
Independent Bernie Sanders (write-in) 18,218 5.68%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 10,078 3.14%
Green Jill Stein 6,758 2.11%
Reform Rocky De La Fuente 1,063 0.33%
Republican John Kasich (write-in) 831 0.26%
Independent Evan McMullin (write-in) 641 0.20%
Liberty Union Gloria La Riva 327 0.10%
Constitution Darrell Castle (write-in) 63 0.02%
Socialist Mimi Soltysik (write-in) 3 <0.01%
Write-in Other Write-in 3,143 1.00%
n/a No Name/None of the Above 257 0.09%
n/a Spoiled/blank 5,400 1.69%
Total votes 320,467 100.00%
Democratic win
Extended content
Other Write-ins Candidate Votes Percentage
Republican Mike Pence (write-in) 305 0.09%
Republican Paul Ryan (write-in) 209 0.06%
Republican Mitt Romney (write-in) 122 0.04%
Republican Marco Rubio (write-in) 93 0.03%
Republican Jeb Bush (write-in) 79 0.03%
Republican John McCain (write-in) 76 0.03%
Republican Ted Cruz (write-in) 63 0.02%
Libertarian Ron Paul (write-in) 25 0.02%
Republican Colin Powell (write-in) 25 0.02%
Democratic Martin O'Malley (write-in) 6 <0.01%
n/a Write-in (Other) 2,140 0.72%

Results by county

County Clinton Votes Trump Votes Third-Parties / Others Votes Johnson Votes Stein Votes Others Votes Margin Votes Total
Democrat Republican Libertarian Green
Addison58.95%11,21927.83%5,29713.22%2,5153.36%6391.90%3617.96%1,515 31.12% 5,92219,031
Bennington54.88%9,53934.09%5,92511.03%1,9172.75%4781.83%3186.45%1,121 20.79% 3,61417,381
Caledonia45.79%6,44539.32%5,53414.89%2,0954.11%5782.37%3338.41%1,184 6.47% 91114,074
Chittenden65.71%54,81422.30%18,60111.99%10,0012.96%2,4692.15%1,7966.88%5,736 43.41% 36,21383,416
Essex34.84%1,01951.49%1,50613.68%4004.14%1211.47%438.07%236 -16.65% -4872,925
Franklin43.67%9,35140.88%8,75215.45%3,3083.90%8361.49%32010.05%2,152 2.79% 59921,411
Grand Isle50.96%2,09436.19%1,48712.85%5283.19%1311.22%508.40%345 14.77% 6074,109
Lamoille56.74%7,24127.97%3,57015.29%1,9513.58%4572.55%3269.15%1,168 28.77% 3,67112,762
Orange51.48%7,54134.18%5,00714.34%2,1013.50%5132.39%3508.45%1,238 17.30% 2,53414,649
Orleans43.04%5,18542.83%5,15914.13%1,7023.30%3981.61%1949.21%1,110 0.21% 2612,046
Rutland46.04%13,63542.14%12,47911.82%3,5013.19%9461.58%4677.05%2,088 3.90% 1,15629,615
Washington59.81%18,59425.71%7,99314.47%4,4993.21%9992.93%9118.33%2,589 34.10% 10,60131,086
Windham63.36%14,34024.10%5,45412.55%2,8402.57%5822.99%6776.99%1,581 39.26% 8,88622,634
Windsor58.66%17,55628.75%8,60512.59%3,7673.11%9312.04%6127.43%2,224 29.91% 8,95129,928
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the At-Large district because it covers the entire state, is thus equivalent to the statewide election results.

District Trump Clinton Representative
At-large 29.76% 55.72% Peter Welch

See also

References

  1. ↑ "2016 Presidential General Election Results - Vermont".
  2. ↑ "Vermont Election Results 2016". The New York Times. August 1, 2017. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved January 11, 2020.
  3. ↑ Weigel, David (November 17, 2016). "More than 18,000 Vermonters wrote in Bernie Sanders for president". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 11, 2020.
  4. ↑ "Vermont Election Night Results". sec state vt us/. Archived from the original on May 28, 2019. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
  5. ↑ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  6. ↑ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  7. ↑ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  8. ↑ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  9. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  10. ↑ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  11. ↑ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  12. ↑ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  13. ↑ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Vermont: Trump vs. Clinton". www.realclearpolitics.com. 2017. Retrieved September 15, 2020.
  14. ↑ "Presidential Election Statement of Votes". Vermont Secretary of State. Archived from the original on April 7, 2016. Retrieved November 26, 2016.
  15. ↑ http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G16/VT The Green Papers
  16. ↑ "Here's a map of the US counties that flipped to Trump from Democrats". www.cnbc.com. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
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