Antarctic Skin Temperature Trends between 1981 and 2007, based on thermal infrared observations made by a series of NOAA satellite sensors. Skin temperature trends do not necessarily reflect air temperature trends.

Climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities occurs everywhere on Earth, and while Antarctica is less vulnerable to it than any other continent,[1] climate change in Antarctica has already been observed. There has been an average temperature increase of >0.05 °C/decade since 1957 across the continent.[2] It had been very uneven, as West Antarctica warmed by over 0.1 °C/decade from 1950s to 2000s, the exposed Antarctic Peninsula warmed by 3 °C (5.4 °F) since the mid-20th century,[3] while the colder and more stable East Antarctica had experienced some cooling.[2] Between 2000 and 2020, East Antarctica interior had also demonstated clear warming, particularly at the South Pole,[4] while the warming of West Antarctica areas slowed or partially reversed between 2000 and 2020.[5] Water temperatures around the West Antarctic had also warmed by 1 °C since year 1955.[3] Southern Ocean has experienced limited warming on the surface, but greater warming at depths below 2000 than any other ocean.[6]: 1230 

The warming of Antarctica's territorial waters, particularly in West Antarctica, has caused the weakening or sometimes outright collapse of ice shelves, which float just offshore glaciers and stabilize them. Coastal glaciers in West Antarctica (and some in the East) have been losing mass and retreating as the result. This been the dominant reason for net annual ice loss across Antarctica,[6]: 1264  even as the East Antarctic ice sheet continues to gain ice inland. By 2100, net ice loss from Antarctica alone is expected to add about 11 cm (5 in) to the global sea level rise. However, marine ice sheet instability may cause West Antarctica to potentially contribute tens of centimeters more if it is triggered before 2100.[6]: 1270  It would have a greater impact and become much more likely to occur under higher warming scenarios, where it may double overall 21st century sea level rise.[7][8][9]

Ice loss from Antarctica also generates fresh meltwater, at a rate of 1100-1500 billion tons (GT) per year. This meltwater may already be starting to weaken the flows of much more saline Antarctic bottom water, which would also affect Southern Ocean overturning circulation. As greater warming will cause more more melting, it is increasingly likely to severely weaken or collapse both, which can have global implications.[6]: 1240  Climate change further affects the biodiversity on the continent, although the extent of this is uncertain as many species in Antarctica remain undiscovered. There are documented changes to flora and fauna on the continent already. Changes include increase in population size in plants, and adaptation to new habitat by penguins. Increase in temperature cause permafrost thaw, which contributes to release of greenhouse gases and chemicals that trapped in the ice.[10]

In the long run, it is considered very likely that the West Antarctic ice sheet will disappear even if the warming does not progress any further, [11][12][13] and only reducing the warming to 2 °C (3.6 °F) below the temperature of 2020 may save it.[14] It is believed that the loss of the ice sheet would take place between 2,000 and 13,000 years,[15][16] although several centuries of high emissions may shorten this to 500 years.[17] 3.3 m (10 ft 10 in) of sea level rise would occur if the ice sheet collapses but leaves ice caps on the mountains behind, and 4.3 m (14 ft 1 in) if those melt as well.[18] Isostatic rebound may also add around 1 m (3 ft 3 in) to the global sea levels over another 1,000 years.[17] The East Antarctic ice sheet is far more stable and may only cause 0.5 m (1 ft 8 in) - 0.9 m (2 ft 11 in) of sea level rise from the current level warming, which is a small fraction of the 53.3 m (175 ft) contained in the full ice sheet.[19] Around 3 °C (5.4 °F), vulnerable locations like Wilkes Basin and Aurora Basin may collapse over a period of around 2,000 years,[15][16], which would add up to 6.4 m (21 ft 0 in) to sea levels.[17] The loss of the entire ice sheet would take global warming in a range between 5 °C (9.0 °F) and 10 °C (18 °F), and a minimum of 10,000 years.[15][16]

Temperature and weather changes

East Antarctica had demonstrated cooling in the 1980s and 1990s, even as the West Antarctica warmed (left-hand side). This trend had largely reversed in 2000s and 2010s (right-hand side).[5]

Antarctica is the coldest and driest continent on Earth, as well as the one with the highest average elevation, and all of these factors make it less subject to climate change than the other continents.[1] Yet, consistent temperature records across Antarctica, which began in 1957, still show warming of >0.05 °C/decade since 1957 across the continent. This warming trend is an average, as there had been substantial differences between different locations.[2] In general, East Antarctica had experienced cooling in the 1980s and 1990s: a location in East Antarctica's so-called Dry Valleys had experienced cooling of 0.7 °C per decade between 1986 and 2006.[20] On the other hand, West Antarctica experienced an average temperature increase of at least 0.176 ± 0.06 °C per decade between 1957 and 2006.[2] Another estimate suggested even larger West Antarctica warming of 2.4 °C (4.3 °F) since 1958, or around 0.46 °C (0.83 °F) per decade,[21] although there has been some uncertainty about it.[22] In 2022, a study had narrowed the warming of the Central area of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet between 1959 and 2000 to 0.31 °C (0.56 °F) per decade, and had conclusively attributed it to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations caused by human activity.[23] Yet, Central WAIS didn't warm as much as the Antarctic Peninsula (also in West Antarctica), which at that point was the fastest-warming place on Earth.[24]

After 2000, local changes in atmospheric circulation, particularly that of the Southern Annular Mode, had slowed or even partially reversed the warming of West Antarctica between 2000 and 2020. On the other hand, East Antarctica interior had demonstated clear warming over those two decades. This occurred partly due to natural variability, and partly as the result of the ozone layer beginning to recover following the Montreal Protocol, interrupted the 600-year record strengthening of Southern Annular Mode caused by depletion of ozone above the continent.[25].[5][26] In particular, the South Pole warmed by 0.61 ± 0.34 °C per decade between 1990 and 2020, which is three times the global average.[4] Antarctica-wide warming trend also continued after 2000, and in February 2020, the continent recorded its highest temperature of 18.3 °C, which was a degree higher than the previous record of 17.5 °C in March 2015.[27]

Models predict that under the most intense climate change scenario, known as RCP8.5, Antarctic temperatures will be up 4 °C (7.2 °F), on average, by 2100 and this will be accompanied by a 30% increase in precipitation and a 30% decrease in total sea ice.[28] RCPs were developed in the late 2000s, and early 2020s research considers RCP8.5 much less likely[29] than the more "moderate" scenarios like RCP 4.5, which lies in between the worst-case and the Paris Agreement goals.[30][31]

Black carbon and effects on albedo

Black carbon accumulated on snow and ice reduces the reflection of ice causing it to absorb more energy and accelerate melting. This can create an ice-albedo feedback loop where meltwater itself effects the acceleration of melting because of the affected surface reflection.[32] Black carbon is considered an impurity which goes on to darken snow and other icy surfaces which leads to a reduction in the surface albedo. This causes solar energy to get absorbed at a greater rate which causes an acceleration in the melting of snow. [33] In Antarctica black carbon has been found on Antarctic Peninsula and around Union Glacier with the highest concentrations near anthropic activities.[34][35] The result of human activities in Antarctica will accelerate snowmelt on the continent, but the speed of melting will differ depending on how far black carbon and other emissions will spread, along with the size of the area that they will cover. A study from 2022 estimate that the seasonal melt during the summer period will start sooner on sites with black carbon because of the reduction in albedo reflection that ranges from 5 to 23 kg/m2.[35]

Effects on ocean currents

The temperature in the upper layer of the ocean in West Antarctica has warmed 1 °C since 1955, and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is warming faster than the average, which can affect circulation in the other oceans.[3]

Ice loss from Antarctica also generates fresh meltwater, at a rate of 1100-1500 billion tons (GT) per year.[6]: 1240  A study published in 2022 revealed that glacier melting from the Antarctica ice sheet accounted for most of the total freshening occurring in the Southern Ocean.[36] The freshening of the Southern Ocean results in increased stratification and stabilization of the ocean.[37] Thus, meltwater may already be starting to weaken the flows of much more saline Antarctic bottom water. That would also weaken Southern Ocean overturning circulation, as less deep water would be rising to the surface. As greater warming will cause more more melting, it would be increasingly likely to severely weaken or collapse both, which can have global implications.[6]: 1240 

Impacts on the cryosphere

Observed changes in ice mass

Contrasting temperature trends across parts of Antarctica, as well as its remoteness, mean that some locations lose mass, particularly at the coasts, while others that are more inland continue to gain it, and estimating an average trend can be difficult.[38] In 2018, a systematic review of all previous studies and data by the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE) estimated an increase in West Antarctic ice sheet annual mass loss from 53 ± 29 Gt in 1992 to 159 ± 26 Gt in the final five years of the study. On the Antarctic Peninsula, the study estimated to −20 ± 15 Gt per year with an increase in loss of roughly 15 Gt per year after year 2000, with a significant role played by the loss of ice shelves.[39] The review's overall estimate was that of Antarctica losing 2720 ± 1390 gigatons of ice during the period from 1992 to 2017 with an average rate of 109 ± 56 Gt per year. This would amount to 7.6 millimeters to sea level rise.[39] Then, though, a 2021 analysis of data from four different research satellite systems (Envisat, European Remote-Sensing Satellite, GRACE and GRACE-FO and ICESat) indicated annual mass loss of only about 12 Gt from 2012-2016, due to much greater ice gain in East Antarctica than estimated earlier, which had offset most of the losses from West Antarctica.[40] East Antarctic ice sheet can still gain mass in spite of warming because effects of climate change on the water cycle increase precipitation over its surface, which then freezes and helps to build up more ice.[6]: 1262 

21st century ice loss and sea level rise

An illustration of the theory behind marine ice sheet and marine ice cliff instabilities.[41]

By 2100, net ice loss from Antarctica alone is expected to add about 11 cm (5 in) to the global sea level rise.[6]: 1270  However, processes such as marine ice sheet instability, which describes the potential for warm water currents to enter between the seafloor and the base of the ice sheet once it is no longer heavy enough to displace such flows,[42] and marine ice cliff instability, when ice cliffs with heights greater than 100 m (330 ft) may collapse under their own weight once they are no longer buttressed by ice shelves (which has never been observed, and only occurs in some of the modelling)[43] may cause West Antarctica have a much larger contribution. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, such processes may increase sea level rise caused by Antarctica to 41 cm (16 in) by 2100 under the low-emission scenario and 57 cm (22 in) under the high-emission scenario.[6]: 1270  Some scientists have even larger estimates, but all agree it would have a greater impact and become much more likely to occur under higher warming scenarios, where it may double the overall 21st century sea level rise to 2 meters or more.[7][8][9] One study suggested that if the Paris Agreement is followed and global warming is limited to 2 °C, the loss of ice in Antarctica will continue at 2020 rate for the rest of the century, but if the then-current trajectory leading to 3 °C is followed, Antarctica ice loss will accelerate after 2060 and start adding 0.5 cm to global sea levels per year by 2100.[44]

Long-term sea level rise

If countries cut greenhouse gas emissions significantly (lowest trace), then sea level rise by 2100 can be limited to 0.3–0.6 m (1–2 ft).[45] If the emissions instead accelerate rapidly (top trace), sea levels could rise 5 m (16+1⁄2 ft) by the year 2300. Higher levels of sea level rise would involve substantial ice loss from Antarctica, including the East Antarctica.[45]

Sea level rise will continue well after 2100, but potentially at very different rates. According to the most recent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (SROCC and the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report), there will be a median rise of 16 cm (6+1⁄2 in) and maximum rise of 37 cm (14+1⁄2 in) under the low-emission scenario. On the other hand, the highest emission scenario results in a median rise of 1.46 m (5 ft) metres, with a minimum of 60 cm (2 ft) and a maximum of 2.89 m (9+1⁄2 ft)).[6]

Over even longer timescales, West Antarctic ice sheet, which is much smaller than the East Antarctic ice sheet is and grounded deep below the sea level, is considered highly vulnerable. The melting of all the ice in West Antarctica would increase the total sea level rise to 4.3 m (14 ft 1 in).[18] However, mountain ice caps not in contact with water are less vulnerable than the majority of the ice sheet, which is located below the sea level. Its collapse would cause ~3.3 m (10 ft 10 in) of sea level rise.[46] This kind of collapse is now considered practically inevitable, because it appears to have already occurred during the Eemian period 125,000 years ago, when temperatures were similar to the early 21st century.[47][48][11][12][49] The Amundsen Sea also appears to be warming at rates which would make the ice sheet's collapse effectively inevitable.[13][50]

The only way to stop ice loss from West Antarctica once triggered is by lowering the global temperature to 1 °C (1.8 °F) below the preindustrial level. This would be 2 °C (3.6 °F) below the temperature of 2020.[14] Other researchers suggested that a climate engineering intervention to stabilize the ice sheet's glaciers may delay its loss by centuries and give more time to adapt. However this is an uncertain proposal, and would end up as one of the most expensive projects ever attempted.[51][52] Otherwise, the disappearance of the West Antarctic ice sheet would take an estimated 2000 years. The absolute minimum for the loss of West Antarctica ice is 500 years, and the potential maximum is 13,000 years.[15][16] Once the ice sheet is lost, there would also be an additional 1 m (3 ft 3 in) of sea level rise over the next 1000 years, caused by isostatic rebound of land beneath the ice sheet.[17]

Retreat of Cook Glacier - a key part of the Wilkes Basin - during the Eemian ~120,000 years ago and an earlier Pleistocene interglacial ~330,000 years ago. These retreats would have added about 0.5 m (1 ft 8 in) and 0.9 m (2 ft 11 in) to sea level rise.[19]

On the other hand, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet as a whole is far more stable. Yet, some of its parts, such as Totten Glacier and Wilkes Basin, are located in vulnerable locations below the sea level, known as subglacial basins. Estimates suggest that they would be committed to disappearance once the global warming reaches 3 °C (5.4 °F), although the plausible temperature range is between 2 °C (3.6 °F) and 6 °C (11 °F). Once it becomes too warm for these subglacial basins, their collapse would unfold over a period of around 2,000 years, although it may be as fast as 500 years or as slow as 10,000 years.[15][16]

The loss of all this ice would ultimately add between 1.4 m (4 ft 7 in) and 6.4 m (21 ft 0 in) to sea levels, depending on the ice sheet model used. Isostatic rebound of the newly ice-free land would also add 8 cm (3.1 in) and 57 cm (1 ft 10 in), respectively.[17] Evidence from the Pleistocene shows that partial loss can also occur at lower warming levels: Wilkes Basin is estimated to have lost enough ice to add 0.5 m (1 ft 8 in) to sea levels between 115,000 and 129,000 years ago, during the Eemian, and about 0.9 m (2 ft 11 in) between 318,000 and 339,000 years ago, during the Marine Isotope Stage 9.[19]

This section is an excerpt from East Antarctic Ice Sheet § Long-term future.[edit]
The entire East Antarctic Ice Sheet holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by 53.3 m (175 ft).[53] Its complete melting is also possible, but it would require very high warming and a lot of time: in 2022, an extensive assessment of tipping points in the climate system published in the Science Magazine concluded that the ice sheet would most likely be committed to complete disappearance only once the global warming reaches about 7.5 °C (13.5 °F), with the minimum and the maximum range between 5 °C (9.0 °F) and 10 °C (18 °F). It would also take a minimum of 10,000 years for the entire ice sheet to be lost. If it were to disappear, then the change in ice-albedo feedback would increase the global temperature by 0.6 °C (1.1 °F), while the regional temperatures would increase by around 2 °C (3.6 °F). The loss of the subglacial basins alone would only add about 0.05 °C (0.090 °F) to global temperatures due to their relatively limited area.[54][55]

Permafrost thaw

Antarctica has much less permafrost than the Arctic,[30] but what is there is also subject to thaw. Similar to how soils have a variety of chemical contaminants and nutrients in them, the permafrost in Antarctica traps various compounds. These include Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) like Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, many of which are known carcinogens or can cause liver damage,[56] Polychlorinated biphenyls such as HCB or DDT, which are associated with decreased reproductive success and immunohematological disorders,[57]. There are also heavy metals like mercury, [lLead]] and cadmium, which can cause endocrine disruption, DNA damage, immunotoxicity and reproductive toxicity.[58] If or when contaminated permafrost thaws, these compounds are released again. This can change the chemistry of surface waters, and bioaccumulation and biomagnification of these compounds throughout the food may also occur.[10] Permafrost thaw also results in greenhouse gas emissions, but the limited volume of Antarctic permafrost means that it is not considered important for climate change relative to the Arctic permafrost.[30]

Impacts on ecology

Biodiversity

In 2010 according to the Register of Antarctic Marine Species, there were known to be 8,806 species that had been discovered up to that point and there could be as many as 17,000 species that live in the Antarctic which means that there are still thousands of species that have yet to be discovered and are part of what makes this biodiverse environment.[59] Many modern molecular techniques have found some species including bivalves, isopods, and pycnogonida in the Antarctic ecosystem.[60] The issue with studies of some of these species is that 90% of the Antarctic region is greater than 1,000 meters deep, and only 30% of the benthic sample locations were found below this depth which indicates that there is a major bias toward testing shallower areas.[60] Cruises such as ANDEEP (Antarctic, benthic deep-sea biodiversity project) has sampled around 11% of the deep sea and they found 585 species of isopod crustaceans that were previously un-described which shows that further research of this deep sea area could really intensify the known biodiversity of the Antarctic.[60]

Another major source of biodiversity within ice communities throughout Antarctica are algal communities found located in brine channels.[61] During the summer, the sea ice undergoes a lot of transformation when the ice begins to melt and sub-ice communities are formed. These sub-ice communities are often found in what are known as brine channels that occur when the ice slowly starts to melt and creates channels within the ice that allow for organisms such as carbon-binding algae.[62] This is important because algae is at the base of the food-chain and with these algae, photosynthesis can occur which allows for a sustainable ecosystem and overall a more abundant food-chain.

Due to a lack of human population some scientists had assumptions that Antarctic biodiversity might be unaffected by the climate change.[63] The average global temperature has risen by 1 degree celsius since 1880 and many studies have shown that there are adverse effects occurring in biodiverse ecosystems within Antarctica.[64] The big question is how will biodiversity react to the climate shifting even a degree more? An experiment was done to quantify the changes that may occur to the Antarctic ecosystem due to climate change and scientists predicted that if the planet were to go beyond the global mean temperature, for example 3 degrees Celsius more, the local species richness would decline by nearly 17% and the suitable climate area by 50%.[64]

Heatwave events in Antarctica are expected to increase in frequency and intensity which can result in the loss of individual species.[65] The absence of predators in these ecosystems could trigger a trophic cascade that would lead to the extinction of secondary species. However, the presence of predators can help buffer the impacts of such warming events.[66]

Plants

The continental flora in Antarctica is dominated by lichens, followed by mosses and ice algae. The plants are mainly found in coastal areas in Antarctica. The only vascular plants on continental Antarctica, Deschampsia antarctica and Colobanthus quitensis, are found on the Antarctic Peninsula. Because of changing climatic conditions, adaptation to the new conditions is necessary for the survival of the plants.[67] One way to deal with the problem is to perform fast growth when the conditions are favourable. High concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere cause climate change with increase in temperature, which leads to (I) increase in water availability, which in turn leads to (II) increase in plant colonization and (III) local-scale population expansion, which leads to (IV) increase in biomass, trophic complexity, and increased terrestrial diversity, and (V) more complex ecosystem structure, and (VI) dominance of biotic factors that drive processes in the ecosystem.

Deschampsia antarctica and Colobanthus quitensis.

Increased photosynthesis because of elevated temperatures has been shown in two maritime vascular species (Deschampsia antarctica and Colobanthus quitensis).[68] Because of increased temperature, the two vascular plants have increased in population size and in their expansion range. Climate change may also have significant effects on indirect processes, for example soil nutrient availability, plant nutrient uptake, and metabolism.

Increased photosynthesis has also been found in the three continental mosses Bryum argenteum, Bryum pseudotriquetrum, and Ceratodon purpureus.[69] A drying trend is affecting terrestrial biota in East Antarctica. Drier microclimates have led to reduction in moss health.[69] Because of acute stress, the moss colour has changed. Due to drought and other stressors, many green mosses have turned to red to brown coloration. This indicates a shift away from photosynthesis and growth towards investments in photoprotective pigments. If the environmental conditions improve, the mosses can recover.[69] If photoprotective pigments decline relative to chlorophyll, the stressed mosses will be green again. New healthy moss plants can sprout through moribund turf. At the expense of the endemic species Schistidium antarctici, two desiccation tolerant moss species, Bryum pseudotriquetrum and Ceratodon purpureus, have increased.

Significant changes that affect the lichen biota take place on young moraines in the proximity of recently uncovered areas because of retreat of glaciers.[70] The changes in diversity of lichens depend on the humidity of the substrate and on the duration of the snow cover. Habitats that reduce the frequency of occurrence are wet or moist stony soil, rock ledges, moist mosses, and meltwater runnels. Continuous deglaciation has resulted in increased colonization by pioneer lichen species. In the maritime cliff rocks and in the proximity of large penguin colonies, the smallest changes in the lichen biota have been observed.

Increase in UV-B radiation because of thinner ozone layer causes damage to cells and photosynthesis. Plants try to defend themselves against increase in ultraviolet radiation with the help of antioxidants.[71] In UV-B exposed plants, the antioxidative enzymes superoxide dismutase, catalase, and peroxidase are synthesized. The exposed plants also synthesize the non-enzymatic antioxidants ascorbate, carotenoids, and flavonoids. All these antioxidants are also used by humans to protect themselves from the damaging effects by free radicals and reactive oxygen species. Uncertainty of the changing environmental conditions causes difficulties in adaptation and survival for species in Antarctica.[67] Increase in temperature might lead to invasion of alien species and changes of the ecological communities in the Antarctic ecosystem. Increasing UV-B radiation already has a negative impact on Antarctic flora.[67]

Animals

Antarctic krill (Euphasia superba).

The marine food web in Antarctica is characterized by few trophic components and low prey diversity. The predator-prey dynamics depend on fluctuations in the relative short food chains. A few key species dominate the marine ecosystems. Antarctic krill (Euphasia superba) and ice krill (Euphasia crystallorophias) are examples of key species.[72] They feed on phytoplankton and are the main food for fish and penguins. These organisms are an essential component in the Antarctic food web. However their numbers are declining over time due to global warming. Their decline has dropped at an alarming rate of 80% since the 1970s. A massive decline in their population could potentially threaten major antarctic species such as penguins, whales and seals. [73]in the periodicity of sea ice cycles because of climate change cause mismatches between earlier phytoplankton blooms, krill development, and availability for penguins.[74] The consequences for many penguins are increase in foraging trips and reduced breeding success. Absence of krill leads to increased population fluctuations and diet switches for penguins.

As penguins are highest in the Antarctic food web, they will be severely affected by climate change, but they can respond by acclimation, adaptation, or by range shift.[75] Range shift through dispersal leads to colonization elsewhere, but it leads local extinction.[76] Microevolution is difficult to find for climate change because it is too slow. The most important responses to climate change in Antarctica are poleward shifts, expansion, and range contraction.[74] Ice-obligate penguins are the most affected species, but the near threatened and ice-intolerant gentoo penguin (Pygoscelis papua) has been benefitted.[77] In maritime Antarctica the population of gentoo penguins is rapidly increasing. Due to regional climate changes, they have moved southwards. Now they colonise previously inaccessible territories. Gentoo penguins use mosses as nesting material. This nesting behaviour is new for southern penguin colonies in Antarctica. By dispersal and adaptive nesting behaviour, gentoo penguins have been remarkably successful in population growth. At the borders of the current geographic distributions, the most obvious responses to climate change occur. There the most likely response to climate change is range shift because adaptation and evolution in penguins are too slow.

Gentoo penguin (Pygoscelis papua).

In birds phenological responses are commonly observed, for example shifts in return to breeding places and timing of egg laying.[78] For penguins shift in penguin phenology in response to prey phenology is important. Often common environmental drivers determine the predator-prey synchrony.[74] Climate driven fluctuations that reduce krill availability also reduce the penguin breeding success. Although gentoo penguins share their prey resource with Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) during the breeding season, there is no resource competition between the two species.[76] This implies that current population trends in this region are governed by other factors than competition. The emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), which has a long breeding season, is constrained in space and time. In the future phenological changes in penguins are likely to be limited by their genotypes. Possible ecological traps might attract ice-intolerant species to ice-free areas without foraging grounds.[79] In the future fitness will decrease if there are no favourable conditions for life cycle events and no adaptive response.

Adélie penguins, a species of penguin found only along the coast of Antarctica, may see nearly one-third of their current population threatened by 2060 with unmitigated climate change.[80] Emperor penguin populations may be at a similar risk, with 80% of populations being at risk of extinction by 2100 with no mitigation. With Paris Agreement temperature goals in place, however, that number may decline to 31% under the 2 °C goal or 19% under the 1.5 °C goal.[81] Warming ocean temperatures have also reduced the amount of krill and copepods in the ocean surrounding Antarctica, which has led to the inability of baleen whales to recover from pre-whaling levels. Without a reversal in temperature increases, baleen whales are likely to be forced to adapt their migratory patterns or face local extinction.[82]

Non-native species

Tourism in Antarctica has been significantly increasing for the past 2 decades with 74,401 tourists in the summer of 2019/2020.[83] The increased human activity associated with tourism likely means there is increased opportunity for the introduction of non-native species. The potential for introduction of non-native species in an environment with rising temperatures and decreasing ice cover is especially concerning because there is an increased probability that introduced species will thrive. Climate change will likely reduce the survivability for native species, improving the chance that introduced species will thrive due to decreased competition.[84] Policy limiting the number of tourists and the permitted activities on and around the continent which mitigate the introduction of new species and limit the disturbance to native species will help prevent the introduction and dominance by non-native species.[84] The continued designation of protected areas like Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASMA) and Antarctic Specially Managed Areas (ASMA) would be one way to accomplish this.

Direct human role

The development of Antarctica for the purposes of industry, tourism, or an increase in research facilities may put direct pressure on the continent and threaten its status as largely untouched land.[85] On the other hand, regulated tourism in Antarctica already brings about awareness and fosters the investment and public support needed to preserve Antarctica's distinctive environment, [86] although an unmitigated loss of ice on land and sea could greatly reduce its attractiveness.[87]

Policy can be used to increase climate change resilience through the protection of ecosystems. The Polar Code is an international code abided by ships that operate over Antarctica. This code includes regulations and safety measures that aid this fragile ecosystem. These regulations include operational trainings and assessments, the control of oil discharge, appropriate sewage disposal, and preventing pollution by toxic liquid substances [88] Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPA) and Antarctic Specially Managed Areas (ASMA) are areas of Antarctica that are designated by the Antarctic Treaty for special protection of the flora and fauna.[89] Both ASPAs and ASMAs restrict entry but to different extents, with ASPAs being the highest level of protection. Designation of ASPAs has decreased 84% since the 1980s despite a rapid increase in tourism which may pose additional stress on the natural environment and ecosystems.[67] In order to alleviate the stress on Antarctic ecosystems posed by climate change and furthered by the rapid increase in tourism, much of the scientific community advocates for an increase in protected areas like ASPAs to improve Antarctica's resilience to rising temperatures.[67]

See also

References

  1. 1 2 Singh, Hansi A.; Polvani, Lorenzo M. (10 January 2020). "Low Antarctic continental climate sensitivity due to high ice sheet orography". npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 3. doi:10.1038/s41612-020-00143-w. S2CID 222179485.
  2. 1 2 3 4 Steig, Eric; Schneider, David; Rutherford, Scott; Mann, Michael E.; Comiso, Josefino; Shindell, Drew (1 January 2009). "Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year". Arts & Sciences Faculty Publications.
  3. 1 2 3 "Impacts of climate change". Discovering Antarctica. Retrieved 15 May 2022.
  4. 1 2 Clem, Kyle R.; Fogt, Ryan L.; Turner, John; Lintner, Benjamin R.; Marshall, Gareth J.; Miller, James R.; Renwick, James A. (August 2020). "Record warming at the South Pole during the past three decades". Nature Climate Change. 10 (8): 762–770. Bibcode:2020NatCC..10..762C. doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0815-z. ISSN 1758-6798. S2CID 220261150.
  5. 1 2 3 Xin, Meijiao; Clem, Kyle R; Turner, John; Stammerjohn, Sharon E; Zhu, Jiang; Cai, Wenju; Li, Xichen (2 June 2023). "West-warming East-cooling trend over Antarctica reversed since early 21st century driven by large-scale circulation variation". Environmental Research Letters. 18 (6): 064034. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acd8d4.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Fox-Kemper, B.; Hewitt, H.T.; Xiao, C.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Drijfhout, S.S.; Edwards, T.L.; Golledge, N.R.; Hemer, M.; Kopp, R.E.; Krinner, G.; Mix, A. (2021). Masson-Delmotte, V.; Zhai, P.; Pirani, A.; Connors, S.L.; Péan, C.; Berger, S.; Caud, N.; Chen, Y.; Goldfarb, L. (eds.). "Chapter 9: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change" (PDF). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: 1270–1272.
  7. 1 2 Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengel, Matthias (1 November 2017). "Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways". Environmental Research Letters. 12 (11): 114002. Bibcode:2017ERL....12k4002N. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6.
  8. 1 2 L. Bamber, Jonathan; Oppenheimer, Michael; E. Kopp, Robert; P. Aspinall, Willy; M. Cooke, Roger (May 2019). "Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 116 (23): 11195–11200. Bibcode:2019PNAS..11611195B. doi:10.1073/pnas.1817205116. PMC 6561295. PMID 31110015.
  9. 1 2 Horton, Benjamin P.; Khan, Nicole S.; Cahill, Niamh; Lee, Janice S. H.; Shaw, Timothy A.; Garner, Andra J.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Engelhart, Simon E.; Rahmstorf, Stefan (8 May 2020). "Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey". npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 3 (1): 18. Bibcode:2020npjCA...3...18H. doi:10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5. S2CID 218541055.
  10. 1 2 Potapowicz, Joanna; Szumińska, Danuta; Szopińska, Małgorzata; Polkowska, Żaneta (15 February 2019). "The influence of global climate change on the environmental fate of anthropogenic pollution released from the permafrost: Part I. Case study of Antarctica". Science of the Total Environment. 651 (Pt 1): 1534–1548. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.168. ISSN 0048-9697. PMID 30360282. S2CID 53093132.
  11. 1 2 Carlson, Anders E; Walczak, Maureen H; Beard, Brian L; Laffin, Matthew K; Stoner, Joseph S; Hatfield, Robert G (10 December 2018). Absence of the West Antarctic ice sheet during the last interglaciation. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting.
  12. 1 2 Lau, Sally C. Y.; Wilson, Nerida G.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Naish, Tim R.; Watts, Phillip C.; Silva, Catarina N. S.; Cooke, Ira R.; Allcock, A. Louise; Mark, Felix C.; Linse, Katrin (21 December 2023). "Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial". Science. 382 (6677): 1384–1389. doi:10.1126/science.ade0664.
  13. 1 2 A. Naughten, Kaitlin; R. Holland, Paul; De Rydt, Jan (23 October 2023). "Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century". Nature Climate Change. 13 (11): 1222–1228. doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x. S2CID 264476246. Retrieved 26 October 2023.
  14. 1 2 Garbe, Julius; Albrecht, Torsten; Levermann, Anders; Donges, Jonathan F.; Winkelmann, Ricarda (2020). "The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet". Nature. 585 (7826): 538–544. Bibcode:2020Natur.585..538G. doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5. PMID 32968257. S2CID 221885420.
  15. 1 2 3 4 5 Armstrong McKay, David; Abrams, Jesse; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Sakschewski, Boris; Loriani, Sina; Fetzer, Ingo; Cornell, Sarah; Rockström, Johan; Staal, Arie; Lenton, Timothy (9 September 2022). "Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points". Science. 377 (6611): eabn7950. doi:10.1126/science.abn7950. hdl:10871/131584. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 36074831. S2CID 252161375.
  16. 1 2 3 4 5 Armstrong McKay, David (9 September 2022). "Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points – paper explainer". climatetippingpoints.info. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
  17. 1 2 3 4 5 Pan, Linda; Powell, Evelyn M.; Latychev, Konstantin; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Creveling, Jessica R.; Gomez, Natalya; Hoggard, Mark J.; Clark, Peter U. (30 April 2021). "Rapid postglacial rebound amplifies global sea level rise following West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse". Science Advances. 7 (18). doi:10.1126/sciadv.abf7787.
  18. 1 2 Fretwell, P.; et al. (28 February 2013). "Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica" (PDF). The Cryosphere. 7 (1): 390. Bibcode:2013TCry....7..375F. doi:10.5194/tc-7-375-2013. S2CID 13129041. Archived (PDF) from the original on 16 February 2020. Retrieved 6 January 2014.
  19. 1 2 3 Crotti, Ilaria; Quiquet, Aurélien; Landais, Amaelle; Stenni, Barbara; Wilson, David J.; Severi, Mirko; Mulvaney, Robert; Wilhelms, Frank; Barbante, Carlo; Frezzotti, Massimo (10 September 2022). "Wilkes subglacial basin ice sheet response to Southern Ocean warming during late Pleistocene interglacials". Nature Communications. 13: 5328. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32847-3.
  20. ↑ Obryk, M. K.; Doran, P. T.; Fountain, A. G.; Myers, M.; McKay, C. P. (16 July 2020). "Climate From the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, 1986–2017: Surface Air Temperature Trends and Redefined Summer Season". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 125 (13). Bibcode:2020JGRD..12532180O. doi:10.1029/2019JD032180. ISSN 2169-897X. S2CID 219738421.
  21. ↑ McGrath, Matt (23 December 2012). "West Antarctic Ice Sheet warming twice earlier estimate". BBC News. Retrieved 16 February 2013.
  22. ↑ Ludescher, Josef; Bunde, Armin; Franzke, Christian L. E.; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (16 April 2015). "Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of Antarctica". Climate Dynamics. 46 (1–2): 263–271. Bibcode:2016ClDy...46..263L. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2582-5. S2CID 131723421.
  23. ↑ Dalaiden, Quentin; Schurer, Andrew P.; Kirchmeier-Young, Megan C.; Goosse, Hugues; Hegerl, Gabriele C. (24 August 2022). "West Antarctic Surface Climate Changes Since the Mid-20th Century Driven by Anthropogenic Forcing". Geophysical Research Letters. 49 (16). doi:10.1029/2022GL099543. hdl:20.500.11820/64ecd5a1-af19-43e8-9d34-da7274cc4ae0.
  24. ↑ Stammerjohn, Sharon E.; Scambos, Ted A. (August 2020). "Warming reaches the South Pole". Nature Climate Change. 10 (8): 710–711. Bibcode:2020NatCC..10..710S. doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0827-8. ISSN 1758-6798. S2CID 220260051.
  25. ↑ Meredith, M.; Sommerkorn, M.; Cassotta, S; Derksen, C.; et al. (2019). "Chapter 3: Polar Regions" (PDF). IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. p. 212.
  26. ↑ Xin, Meijiao; Li, Xichen; Stammerjohn, Sharon E; Cai, Wenju; Zhu, Jiang; Turner, John; Clem, Kyle R; Song, Chentao; Wang, Wenzhu; Hou, Yurong (17 May 2023). "A broadscale shift in antarctic temperature trends". Climate Dynamics. 61: 4623–4641. doi:10.1007/s00382-023-06825-4.
  27. ↑ Larson, Christina (8 February 2020). "Antarctica appears to have broken a heat record". phys.org.
  28. ↑ Hughes, Kevin A.; Convey, Peter; Turner, John (1 October 2021). "Developing resilience to climate change impacts in Antarctica: An evaluation of Antarctic Treaty System protected area policy". Environmental Science & Policy. 124: 12–22. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2021.05.023. ISSN 1462-9011. S2CID 236282417.
  29. ↑ Hausfather, Zeke; Peters, Glen (29 January 2020). "Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading". Nature. 577 (7792): 618–20. Bibcode:2020Natur.577..618H. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3. PMID 31996825.
  30. 1 2 3 Schuur, Edward A.G.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Commane, Roisin; Ernakovich, Jessica; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Hugelius, Gustaf; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Miriam; Koven, Charlie; Leshyk, Victor; Lawrence, David; Loranty, Michael M.; Mauritz, Marguerite; Olefeldt, David; Natali, Susan; Rodenhizer, Heidi; Salmon, Verity; Schädel, Christina; Strauss, Jens; Treat, Claire; Turetsky, Merritt (2022). "Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 47: 343–371. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847. Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...
  31. ↑ Phiddian, Ellen (5 April 2022). "Explainer: IPCC Scenarios". Cosmos. Retrieved 30 September 2023. "The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.
  32. ↑ Thackeray, Chad W.; Fletcher, Christopher G. (June 2016). "Snow albedo feedback: Current knowledge, importance, outstanding issues and future directions". Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment. 40 (3): 392–408. doi:10.1177/0309133315620999. ISSN 0309-1333. S2CID 130252885.
  33. ↑ Goelles, T.; Bøggild, C. E. (26 February 2015). "Albedo reduction caused by black carbon and dust accumulation: a quantitive model applied to the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet". The Cryosphere Discussions. 9 (1): 1345–1381. Bibcode:2015TCD.....9.1345G. doi:10.5194/tcd-9-1345-2015.
  34. ↑ Cereceda-Balic, Francisco; Vidal, Víctor; Ruggeri, María Florencia; González, Humberto E. (15 November 2020). "Black carbon pollution in snow and its impact on albedo near the Chilean stations on the Antarctic peninsula: First results". Science of the Total Environment. 743: 140801. Bibcode:2020ScTEn.743n0801C. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140801. ISSN 0048-9697. PMID 32673927. S2CID 220608494.
  35. 1 2 Cordero, Raúl R.; Sepúlveda, Edgardo; Feron, Sarah; Damiani, Alessandro; Fernandoy, Francisco; Neshyba, Steven; Rowe, Penny M.; Asencio, Valentina; Carrasco, Jorge; Alfonso, Juan A.; Llanillo, Pedro (22 February 2022). "Black carbon footprint of human presence in Antarctica". Nature Communications. 13 (1): 984. Bibcode:2022NatCo..13..984C. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28560-w. ISSN 2041-1723. PMC 8863810. PMID 35194040.
  36. ↑ Pan, Xianliang L.; Li, Bofeng F.; Watanabe, Yutaka W. (10 January 2022). "Intense ocean freshening from melting glacier around the Antarctica during early twenty-first century". Scientific Reports. 12 (1): 383. Bibcode:2022NatSR..12..383P. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-04231-6. ISSN 2045-2322. PMC 8748732. PMID 35013425.
  37. ↑ Haumann, F. Alexander; Gruber, Nicolas; Münnich, Matthias; Frenger, Ivy; Kern, Stefan (September 2016). "Sea-ice transport driving Southern Ocean salinity and its recent trends". Nature. 537 (7618): 89–92. Bibcode:2016Natur.537...89H. doi:10.1038/nature19101. hdl:20.500.11850/120143. ISSN 1476-4687. PMID 27582222. S2CID 205250191.
  38. ↑ King, M. A.; Bingham, R. J.; Moore, P.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Bentley, M. J.; Milne, G. A. (2012). "Lower satellite-gravimetry estimates of Antarctic sea-level contribution". Nature. 491 (7425): 586–589. Bibcode:2012Natur.491..586K. doi:10.1038/nature11621. PMID 23086145. S2CID 4414976.
  39. 1 2 IMBIE team (13 June 2018). "Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017". Nature. 558 (7709): 219–222. Bibcode:2018Natur.558..219I. doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y. hdl:2268/225208. PMID 29899482. S2CID 49188002.
  40. ↑ Zwally, H. Jay; Robbins, John W.; Luthcke, Scott B.; Loomis, Bryant D.; Rémy, Frédérique (29 March 2021). "Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet 1992–2016: reconciling results from GRACE gravimetry with ICESat, ERS1/2 and Envisat altimetry". Journal of Glaciology. 67 (263): 533–559. doi:10.1017/jog.2021.8. Although their methods of interpolation or extrapolation for areas with unobserved output velocities have an insufficient description for the evaluation of associated errors, such errors in previous results (Rignot and others, 2008) caused large overestimates of the mass losses as detailed in Zwally and Giovinetto (Zwally and Giovinetto, 2011).
  41. ↑ Pattyn, Frank (16 July 2018). "The paradigm shift in Antarctic ice sheet modelling". Nature Communications. 9 (1): 2728. Bibcode:2018NatCo...9.2728P. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-05003-z. PMC 6048022. PMID 30013142.
  42. ↑ Robel, Alexander A.; Seroussi, Hélène; Roe, Gerard H. (23 July 2019). "Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 116 (30): 14887–14892. Bibcode:2019PNAS..11614887R. doi:10.1073/pnas.1904822116. PMC 6660720. PMID 31285345.
  43. ↑ Perkins, Sid (17 June 2021). "Collapse may not always be inevitable for marine ice cliffs". ScienceNews. Retrieved 9 January 2023.
  44. ↑ DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David; Alley, Richard B.; Velicogna, Isabella; Gasson, Edward; Gomez, Natalya; Sadai, Shaina; Condron, Alan; Gilford, Daniel M.; Ashe, Erica L.; Kopp, Robert E. (May 2021). "The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica". Nature. 593 (7857): 83–89. Bibcode:2021Natur.593...83D. doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0. hdl:10871/125843. ISSN 1476-4687. PMID 33953408. S2CID 233868268.
  45. 1 2 "Anticipating Future Sea Levels". EarthObservatory.NASA.gov. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). 2021. Archived from the original on 7 July 2021.
  46. ↑ Bamber, J.L.; Riva, R.E.M.; Vermeersen, B.L.A.; LeBrocq, A.M. (14 May 2009). "Reassessment of the Potential Sea-Level Rise from a Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet". Science. 324 (5929): 901–903. Bibcode:2009Sci...324..901B. doi:10.1126/science.1169335. PMID 19443778. S2CID 11083712.
  47. ↑ Voosen, Paul (18 December 2018). "Discovery of recent Antarctic ice sheet collapse raises fears of a new global flood". Science. Retrieved 28 December 2018.
  48. ↑ Turney, Chris S. M.; Fogwill, Christopher J.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Sebille, Erik van; Jones, Richard T.; Etheridge, David; Rubino, Mauro; Thornton, David P.; Davies, Siwan M.; Ramsey, Christopher Bronk (11 February 2020). "Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 117 (8): 3996–4006. Bibcode:2020PNAS..117.3996T. doi:10.1073/pnas.1902469117. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 7049167. PMID 32047039.
  49. ↑ AHMED, Issam. "Antarctic octopus DNA reveals ice sheet collapse closer than thought". phys.org. Retrieved 23 December 2023.
  50. ↑ Poynting, Mark (24 October 2023). "Sea-level rise: West Antarctic ice shelf melt 'unavoidable'". BBC. Retrieved 26 October 2023.
  51. ↑ Wolovick, Michael; Moore, John; Keefer, Bowie (27 March 2023). "Feasibility of ice sheet conservation using seabed anchored curtains". PNAS Nexus. 2 (3): pgad053. doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad053. PMC 10062297. PMID 37007716.
  52. ↑ Wolovick, Michael; Moore, John; Keefer, Bowie (27 March 2023). "The potential for stabilizing Amundsen Sea glaciers via underwater curtains". PNAS Nexus. 2 (4): pgad103. doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad103. PMC 10118300. PMID 37091546.
  53. ↑ Fretwell, P.; Pritchard, H. D.; Vaughan, D. G.; Bamber, J. L.; Barrand, N. E.; Bell, R.; Bianchi, C.; Bingham, R. G.; Blankenship, D. D. (28 February 2013). "Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica". The Cryosphere. 7 (1): 375–393. Bibcode:2013TCry....7..375F. doi:10.5194/tc-7-375-2013. hdl:1808/18763. ISSN 1994-0424.
  54. ↑ Armstrong McKay, David; Abrams, Jesse; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Sakschewski, Boris; Loriani, Sina; Fetzer, Ingo; Cornell, Sarah; Rockström, Johan; Staal, Arie; Lenton, Timothy (9 September 2022). "Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points". Science. 377 (6611). doi:10.1126/science.abn7950. hdl:10871/131584. ISSN 0036-8075. S2CID 252161375.
  55. ↑ Armstrong McKay, David (9 September 2022). "Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points – paper explainer". climatetippingpoints.info. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
  56. ↑ Curtosi, Antonio; Pelletier, Emilien; Vodopivez, Cristian L.; Cormack, Walter P. Mac (August 2009). "Distribution of PAHs in the water column, sediments and biota of Potter Cove, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica". Antarctic Science. 21 (4): 329–339. Bibcode:2009AntSc..21..329C. doi:10.1017/S0954102009002004. ISSN 1365-2079. S2CID 130818024.
  57. ↑ Jara-Carrasco, S.; González, M.; González-Acuña, D.; Chiang, G.; Celis, J.; Espejo, W.; Mattatall, P.; Barra, R. (August 2015). "Potential immunohaematological effects of persistent organic pollutants on chinstrap penguin". Antarctic Science. 27 (4): 373–381. Bibcode:2015AntSc..27..373J. doi:10.1017/S0954102015000012. ISSN 0954-1020. S2CID 53415356.
  58. ↑ Goutte, Aurélie; Cherel, Yves; Churlaud, Carine; Ponthus, Jean-Pierre; Massé, Guillaume; Bustamante, Paco (15 December 2015). "Trace elements in Antarctic fish species and the influence of foraging habitats and dietary habits on mercury levels". Science of the Total Environment. 538: 743–749. Bibcode:2015ScTEn.538..743G. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.103. ISSN 0048-9697. PMID 26327642.
  59. ↑ Gutt, Julian; Sirenko, Boris I.; Smirnov, Igor S.; Arntz, Wolf E. (March 2004). "How many macrozoobenthic species might inhabit the Antarctic shelf?". Antarctic Science. 16 (1): 11–16. Bibcode:2004AntSc..16...11G. doi:10.1017/S0954102004001750. ISSN 1365-2079. S2CID 86092653.
  60. 1 2 3 Griffiths, Huw J. (2 August 2010). "Antarctic Marine Biodiversity – What Do We Know About the Distribution of Life in the Southern Ocean?". PLOS ONE. 5 (8): e11683. Bibcode:2010PLoSO...511683G. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0011683. ISSN 1932-6203. PMC 2914006. PMID 20689841.
  61. ↑ kazilek (15 July 2014). "Brine Channels". askabiologist.asu.edu. Retrieved 25 June 2022.
  62. ↑ Morawetz, Klaus; Thoms, Silke; Kutschan, Bernd (3 March 2017). "Formation of brine channels in sea ice". The European Physical Journal E. 40 (3): 25. arXiv:1406.5031. doi:10.1140/epje/i2017-11512-x. ISSN 1292-895X. PMID 28255919. S2CID 3759495.
  63. ↑ Wall, Diana H. (2005). "Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in terrestrial habitats of Antarctica". Antarctic Science. 17 (4): 523–531. Bibcode:2005AntSc..17..523W. doi:10.1017/S0954102005002944. S2CID 130131739.
  64. 1 2 Nunez, Sarahi; Arets, Eric; Alkemade, Rob; Verwer, Caspar; Leemans, Rik (2019). "Assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity: Is below 2 °C enough?". Climatic Change. 154 (3–4): 351–365. Bibcode:2019ClCh..154..351N. doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02420-x. S2CID 181651307.
  65. ↑ Fischer, E. M.; Sippel, S.; Knutti, R. (August 2021). "Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes". Nature Climate Change. 11 (8): 689–695. Bibcode:2021NatCC..11..689F. doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01092-9. ISSN 1758-6798. S2CID 236438374.
  66. ↑ Ross, Samuel R. P.‐J.; García Molinos, Jorge; Okuda, Atsushi; Johnstone, Jackson; Atsumi, Keisuke; Futamura, Ryo; Williams, Maureen A.; Matsuoka, Yuichi; Uchida, Jiro; Kumikawa, Shoji; Sugiyama, Hiroshi (January 2022). "Predators mitigate the destabilising effects of heatwaves on multitrophic stream communities". Global Change Biology. 28 (2): 403–416. doi:10.1111/gcb.15956. ISSN 1354-1013. PMID 34689388. S2CID 239766523.
  67. 1 2 3 4 5 Singh, Jaswant; Singh, Rudra P.; Khare, Rajni (December 2018). "Influence of climate change on Antarctic flora". Polar Science. 18: 94–101. Bibcode:2018PolSc..18...94S. doi:10.1016/j.polar.2018.05.006. S2CID 133659933.
  68. ↑ Cavieres, Lohengrin A.; Sáez, Patricia; Sanhueza, Carolina; Sierra-Almeida, Angela; Rabert, Claudia; Corcuera, Luis J.; Alberdi, Miren; Bravo, León A. (March 2016). "Ecophysiological traits of Antarctic vascular plants: their importance in the responses to climate change". Plant Ecology. 217 (3): 343–358. Bibcode:2016PlEco.217..343C. doi:10.1007/s11258-016-0585-x. ISSN 1385-0237. S2CID 8030745.
  69. 1 2 3 Robinson, Sharon A.; King, Diana H.; Bramley-Alves, Jessica; Waterman, Melinda J.; Ashcroft, Michael B.; Wasley, Jane; Turnbull, Johanna D.; Miller, Rebecca E.; Ryan-Colton, Ellen; Benny, Taylor; Mullany, Kathryn (October 2018). "Rapid change in East Antarctic terrestrial vegetation in response to regional drying". Nature Climate Change. 8 (10): 879–884. Bibcode:2018NatCC...8..879R. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0280-0. ISSN 1758-678X. S2CID 92381608.
  70. ↑ Olech, Maria; Słaby, Agnieszka (August 2016). "Changes in the lichen biota of the Lions Rump area, King George Island, Antarctica, over the last 20 years". Polar Biology. 39 (8): 1499–1503. Bibcode:2016PoBio..39.1499O. doi:10.1007/s00300-015-1863-0. ISSN 0722-4060. S2CID 16099068.
  71. ↑ Winkel-Shirley, Brenda (June 2002). "Biosynthesis of flavonoids and effects of stress". Current Opinion in Plant Biology. 5 (3): 218–223. doi:10.1016/S1369-5266(02)00256-X. PMID 11960739.
  72. ↑ Smetacek, Victor; Nicol, Stephen (September 2005). "Polar ocean ecosystems in a changing world". Nature. 437 (7057): 362–368. Bibcode:2005Natur.437..362S. doi:10.1038/nature04161. ISSN 0028-0836. PMID 16163347. S2CID 4388240.
  73. ↑ "Impacts of climate change". Discovering Antarctica. Retrieved 2 December 2023.
  74. 1 2 3 Hinke, Jefferson T.; Salwicka, Kasia; Trivelpiece, Susan G.; Watters, George M.; Trivelpiece, Wayne Z. (10 September 2007). "Divergent responses of Pygoscelis penguins reveal a common environmental driver". Oecologia. 153 (4): 845–855. Bibcode:2007Oecol.153..845H. doi:10.1007/s00442-007-0781-4. ISSN 0029-8549. PMID 17566778. S2CID 12800009.
  75. ↑ Davis, Margaret B.; Shaw, Ruth G.; Etterson, Julie R. (July 2005). "Evolutionary Responses to Changing Climate". Ecology. 86 (7): 1704–1714. Bibcode:2005Ecol...86.1704D. doi:10.1890/03-0788. hdl:11299/178230. ISSN 0012-9658.
  76. 1 2 Pickett, Erin P.; Fraser, William R.; Patterson‐Fraser, Donna L.; Cimino, Megan A.; Torres, Leigh G.; Friedlaender, Ari S. (October 2018). "Spatial niche partitioning may promote coexistence of Pygoscelis penguins as climate‐induced sympatry occurs". Ecology and Evolution. 8 (19): 9764–9778. Bibcode:2018EcoEv...8.9764P. doi:10.1002/ece3.4445. ISSN 2045-7758. PMC 6202752. PMID 30386573.
  77. ↑ Dykyy, Ihor; Bedernichek, Tymur (January 2022). "Gentoo Penguins (Pygoscelis papua) started using mosses as nesting material in the southernmost colony on the Antarctic Peninsula (Cape Tuxen, Graham Land)". Polar Biology. 45 (1): 149–152. Bibcode:2022PoBio..45..149D. doi:10.1007/s00300-021-02968-4. ISSN 0722-4060. S2CID 244363982.
  78. ↑ Visser, Marcel E.; Both, Christiaan; Lambrechts, Marcel M. (2004), "Global Climate Change Leads to Mistimed Avian Reproduction", Advances in Ecological Research, Elsevier, vol. 35, pp. 89–110, doi:10.1016/s0065-2504(04)35005-1, ISBN 978-0-12-013935-4, retrieved 14 May 2022
  79. ↑ Forcada, Jaume; Trathan, Philip N. (July 2009). "Penguin responses to climate change in the Southern Ocean". Global Change Biology. 15 (7): 1618–1630. Bibcode:2009GCBio..15.1618F. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01909.x. S2CID 86404493.
  80. ↑ Cimino, Megan A.; Lynch, Heather J.; Saba, Vincent S.; Oliver, Matthew J. (June 2016). "Projected asymmetric response of Adélie penguins to Antarctic climate change". Scientific Reports. 6 (1): 28785. Bibcode:2016NatSR...628785C. doi:10.1038/srep28785. PMC 4926113. PMID 27352849.
  81. ↑ Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Iles, David; Labrousse, Sara; Landrum, Laura; Garnier, Jimmy; Caswell, Hal; Weimerskirch, Henri; LaRue, Michelle; Ji, Rubao; Barbraud, Christophe (March 2020). "The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins" (PDF). Global Change Biology. 26 (3): 1170–1184. Bibcode:2020GCBio..26.1170J. doi:10.1111/gcb.14864. PMID 31696584. S2CID 207964725.
  82. ↑ Tulloch, Vivitskaia J. D.; Plagányi, Éva E.; Brown, Christopher; Richardson, Anthony J.; Matear, Richard (April 2019). "Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change". Global Change Biology. 25 (4): 1263–1281. Bibcode:2019GCBio..25.1263T. doi:10.1111/gcb.14573. PMC 6850638. PMID 30807685.
  83. ↑ IAATO. (2018). IAATO Overview of Antarctic Tourism: 2018–19 Season and Preliminary Estimates for 2019–20 Season.
  84. 1 2 McCarthy, Arlie H.; Peck, Lloyd S.; Hughes, Kevin A.; Aldridge, David C. (July 2019). "Antarctica: The final frontier for marine biological invasions". Global Change Biology. 25 (7): 2221–2241. Bibcode:2019GCBio..25.2221M. doi:10.1111/gcb.14600. ISSN 1354-1013. PMC 6849521. PMID 31016829.
  85. ↑ Liggett, Daniela; Frame, Bob; Gilbert, Neil; Morgan, Fraser (September 2017). "Is it all going south? Four future scenarios for Antarctica". Polar Record. 53 (5): 459–478. Bibcode:2017PoRec..53..459L. doi:10.1017/S0032247417000390.
  86. ↑ "Impacts of tourism in Antarctica". www.iucn.org. Retrieved 1 December 2023.
  87. ↑ "How to save Antarctica (and the rest of Earth too) | Imperial News | Imperial College London". Imperial News. 13 June 2018. Retrieved 1 December 2023.
  88. ↑ "Polar Code". ww2.eagle.org. Retrieved 1 December 2023.
  89. ↑ "Area Protection and Management / Monuments | Antarctic Treaty". www.ats.aq. Retrieved 27 April 2022.

Sources

This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.