2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas
November 4, 2008
 
Nominee John McCain Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Arizona Illinois
Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 638,017 422,310
Percentage 58.72% 38.86%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. State voters chose six representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Arkansas was won by Republican John McCain by a 19.86% margin of victory, an even greater margin than George W. Bush attained in 2004, despite the national Democratic trend. This was likely due to the issue of race in the presidential election.[1] Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise a red state. The state trended dramatically Republican in 2008, as McCain received over 4% more of the statewide popular vote than Bush earned in 2004 and more than doubled his margin of victory. Only five counties swung more Democratic in 2008, and the vast majority of counties swung heavily Republican, some by as much as 30%.[2] Of the ten counties with the largest percentage swing to the Republicans in the U.S. during this election, six of them were located in Arkansas.[3]

Obama became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Arkansas. Since 1996, the Natural State has rapidly transformed from a Democratic stronghold into one of the most Republican states in the nation. It was also one of the six states where neither Obama nor McCain won during the primary season, and the strongest of five states that swung rightward in this election, the others being Oklahoma, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia.

Despite McCain's landslide victory in the state's presidential race, Democratic Senator Mark Pryor easily won re-election on the same ballot. This was the first time Arkansas did not vote for the winner of the presidential election since 1968.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report[4] Likely R
Cook Political Report[5] Solid R
The Takeaway[6] Lean R
Electoral-vote.com[7] Lean R
Washington Post[8] Lean R
Politico[9] Solid R
RealClearPolitics[10] Lean R
FiveThirtyEight[8] Solid R
CQ Politics[11] Solid R
The New York Times[12] Solid R
CNN[13] Lean R
NPR[8] Solid R
MSNBC[8] Solid R
Fox News[14] Likely R
Associated Press[15] Likely R
Rasmussen Reports[16] Safe R

Polling

John McCain won every single opinion poll taken in Arkansas prior to the election, with leads ranging from 7% to 29%. Although, McCain polled just in the low 50% range.[17] RealClearPolitics gave the state an average of 52.3% for McCain, compared to 38.8% for Obama. The margin of victory on election day was more than double of the RCP average.[18] The state was not seriously contested by either campaign.

Fundraising

Obama raised $1,004,783. McCain raised $934,884. Both candidates raised the most in Pulaski County.[19][20]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent over $110,350. McCain spent only $459.[21] Neither candidate visited the state.[22]

Analysis

Although former President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, easily carried his home state of Arkansas in 1992 and 1996, the state was largely considered a safe state for McCain. Early polls gave McCain a 9-point lead among possible voters on Election Day.[23] Although the state was still strongly Democratic at the non-presidential levels, on Election Day, Arkansas voted for McCain by a margin of approximately 20%--ten points better than Bush's showing four years earlier. In this election, Arkansas voted 27.12% to the right of the nation at-large.[24]

A handful of counties — some of which had not voted for the Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon won every county in 1972 — swung safely into the GOP column. The Delta county of Jackson, for example, swung from a 14.3-point victory for Democrat Kerry in 2004 to a 16.3-point victory for McCain in 2008. Possible factors suggested for such a large swing away from the Democrats was Obama's status as the first African American major-party nominee in a historically-segregationist state still dominated by conservative whites,[25] as well as the fact that Hillary Clinton, who once served as First Lady of Arkansas while her husband was Governor, did not receive the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008. The polls showed Clinton defeating McCain in Arkansas. Obama became the first Democrat in history to win the White House without carrying Arkansas.

During the same election, however, freshman Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Pryor faced no Republican opposition, and was reelected in a landslide victory over Rebekah Kennedy of the Green Party. The four members of the state's delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives (three Democrats and one Republican) were also reelected with no major-party opposition. Republicans, however, picked up three seats in the Arkansas House of Representatives and one Democratic state representative became a Green (he later returned to the Democratic Party in 2009).

Results

2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas[26]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 638,017 58.72% 6
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 422,310 38.86% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 12,882 1.19% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 4,776 0.44% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 4,023 0.37% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 3,470 0.32% 0
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva Eugene Puryear 1,139 0.10% 0
Totals 1,086,617 100.00% 6
Voter turnout 64.52%

By county

County[27] John McCain
Republican		 Barack Obama
Democratic		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Arkansas 4,185 59.97% 2,619 37.53% 174 2.49% 1,566 22.44% 6,978
Ashley 5,406 62.55% 2,976 34.44% 260 3.01% 2,430 28.11% 8,642
Baxter 12,852 64.32% 6,539 32.73% 590 2.95% 6,313 31.59% 19,981
Benton 51,124 67.20% 23,331 30.67% 1,618 2.13% 27,793 36.53% 76,073
Boone 10,575 68.34% 4,435 28.66% 464 3.00% 6,140 39.68% 15,474
Bradley 2,262 55.98% 1,680 41.57% 99 2.45% 582 14.41% 4,041
Calhoun 1,462 65.94% 691 31.17% 64 2.89% 771 34.77% 2,217
Carroll 6,083 57.50% 4,172 39.44% 324 3.06% 1,911 18.06% 10,579
Chicot 2,119 40.69% 3,043 58.43% 46 0.88% -924 -17.74% 5,208
Clark 4,608 50.67% 4,267 46.92% 219 2.41% 341 3.75% 9,094
Clay 3,032 55.02% 2,244 40.72% 235 4.26% 788 14.30% 5,511
Cleburne 7,962 70.22% 2,951 26.03% 425 3.75% 5,011 44.19% 11,338
Cleveland 2,451 69.93% 911 25.99% 143 4.08% 1,540 43.94% 3,505
Columbia 5,861 61.32% 3,554 37.18% 143 1.50% 2,307 24.14% 9,558
Conway 4,691 57.64% 3,149 38.70% 298 3.66% 1,542 18.94% 8,138
Craighead 18,881 60.97% 11,294 36.47% 793 2.56% 7,587 24.50% 30,968
Crawford 14,688 71.54% 5,238 25.51% 606 2.95% 9,450 46.03% 20,532
Crittenden 7,650 41.91% 10,330 56.59% 275 1.51% -2,680 -14.68% 18,255
Cross 4,393 61.61% 2,580 36.19% 157 2.20% 1,813 25.42% 7,130
Dallas 1,757 52.95% 1,471 44.33% 90 2.71% 286 8.62% 3,318
Desha 1,999 42.73% 2,569 54.92% 110 2.35% -570 -12.19% 4,678
Drew 3,860 58.40% 2,598 39.30% 152 2.30% 1,262 19.10% 6,610
Faulkner 25,362 61.59% 14,955 36.32% 862 2.10% 10,407 25.27% 41,179
Franklin 4,411 68.12% 1,869 28.86% 195 3.01% 1,173 16.09% 6,475
Fulton 2,702 57.78% 1,819 38.90% 155 3.31% 883 18.88% 4,676
Garland 26,825 61.36% 15,899 36.37% 995 2.28% 10,926 24.99% 43,719
Grant 5,023 73.94% 1,562 22.99% 208 3.06% 3,461 50.95% 6,793
Greene 8,578 63.02% 4,541 33.36% 493 3.62% 4,037 29.66% 13,612
Hempstead 4,273 58.14% 2,869 39.04% 207 2.82% 1,404 19.10% 7,349
Hot Spring 7,209 60.30% 4,288 35.87% 458 3.83% 2,921 24.43% 11,955
Howard 2,957 61.02% 1,746 36.03% 143 2.95% 1,211 24.99% 4,846
Independence 8,255 67.12% 3,688 29.99% 356 2.89% 4,567 37.13% 12,299
Izard 3,193 61.19% 1,792 34.34% 233 4.47% 1,401 26.85% 5,218
Jackson 3,118 55.86% 2,207 39.54% 257 4.60% 911 16.32% 5,582
Jefferson 10,655 35.89% 18,465 62.19% 569 1.92% -7,810 -26.30% 29,689
Johnson 4,922 60.17% 3,034 37.09% 224 2.74% 1,888 23.08% 8,180
Lafayette 1,685 58.06% 1,133 39.04% 84 2.89% 552 19.02% 2,902
Lawrence 3,357 57.58% 2,138 36.67% 335 5.75% 1,219 20.91% 5,830
Lee 1,454 38.64% 2,263 60.14% 46 1.22% -809 -21.50% 3,763
Lincoln 2,513 57.04% 1,710 38.81% 183 4.15% 803 18.23% 4,406
Little River 3,247 63.02% 1,753 34.03% 152 2.95% 1,494 28.99% 5,152
Logan 5,350 67.66% 2,286 28.91% 271 3.43% 3,064 38.75% 7,907
Lonoke 17,242 72.63% 5,968 25.14% 531 2.24% 11,274 47.49% 23,741
Madison 3,972 62.77% 2,144 33.88% 212 3.35% 1,828 28.89% 6,328
Marion 4,524 63.17% 2,384 33.29% 254 3.55% 2,140 29.88% 7,162
Miller 9,913 65.81% 4,869 32.32% 281 1.87% 5,044 33.49% 15,063
Mississippi 6,976 49.79% 6,667 47.59% 367 2.62% 309 2.20% 14,010
Monroe 1,754 50.86% 1,615 46.83% 80 2.32% 139 4.03% 3,449
Montgomery 2,365 65.30% 1,092 30.15% 165 4.56% 1,273 35.15% 3,622
Nevada 2,062 56.73% 1,474 40.55% 99 2.72% 588 16.18% 3,635
Newton 2,588 65.35% 1,182 29.85% 190 4.80% 1,406 35.50% 3,960
Ouachita 5,427 54.49% 4,346 43.63% 187 1.88% 1,081 10.86% 9,960
Perry 2,743 64.10% 1,352 31.60% 184 4.30% 1,391 32.50% 4,279
Phillips 3,097 34.53% 5,695 63.50% 177 1.97% -2,598 -28.97% 8,969
Pike 2,727 68.76% 1,089 27.46% 150 3.78% 1,638 41.30% 3,966
Poinsett 4,903 61.84% 2,742 34.59% 283 3.57% 2,161 27.25% 7,928
Polk 5,473 71.25% 1,957 25.48% 251 3.27% 3,516 45.77% 7,681
Pope 15,568 70.51% 6,002 27.18% 509 2.31% 9,566 43.33% 22,079
Prairie 2,223 65.75% 1,048 31.00% 110 3.25% 1,175 34.75% 3,381
Pulaski 70,212 43.52% 88,854 55.07% 2,277 1.41% -18,642 -11.55% 161,343
Randolph 3,615 57.21% 2,469 39.07% 235 3.72% 1,146 18.14% 6,319
St. Francis 3,917 41.21% 5,486 57.72% 102 1.08% -1,569 -16.51% 9,505
Saline 30,981 69.38% 12,695 28.43% 977 2.19% 18,286 40.95% 44,653
Scott 2,514 62.26% 1,473 36.48% 51 1.26% 1,041 25.78% 3,995
Searcy 2,726 70.86% 961 24.98% 160 4.16% 1,765 45.88% 3,847
Sebastian 28,637 66.27% 13,673 31.64% 902 2.09% 14,964 34.63% 43,212
Sevier 3,125 68.23% 1,291 28.19% 164 3.58% 1,834 40.04% 4,580
Sharp 4,535 62.53% 2,436 33.59% 281 3.87% 2,099 28.94% 7,252
Stone 3,534 66.38% 1,598 30.02% 192 3.61% 1,936 36.36% 5,324
Union 10,677 62.15% 6,190 36.03% 312 3.61% 4,487 26.12% 17,179
Van Buren 4,276 63.79% 2,151 32.09% 276 4.12% 2,125 31.70% 6,703
Washington 37,963 55.52% 29,021 42.44% 1,396 2.04% 8,942 13.08% 68,380
White 19,467 72.22% 6,732 24.97% 756 2.80% 12,735 47.25% 26,955
Woodruff 1,206 43.68% 1,412 51.14% 143 5.18% -206 -7.46% 2,761
Yell 3,808 63.09% 2,003 33.18% 225 3.73% 1,805 29.91% 6,036
Totals638,01758.72%422,31038.86%26,2902.42%215,70719.86%1,086,617
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

McCain swept every congressional district in Arkansas, three of which were held by Democrats.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 58.69% 38.41% Marion Berry
2nd 53.98% 44.07% Vic Snyder
3rd 64.16% 33.45% John Boozman
4th 58.14% 39.33% Michael Avery Ross

Electors

Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arkansas is allocated 6 electors because it has 4 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 6 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 6 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[28] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 6 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[29]

  1. Jim Burnett
  2. Reta Hamilton
  3. Rose Bryant Jones
  4. Phyllis Kincannon
  5. Steve Lux
  6. Kermit Parks

See also

References

  1. ↑ Lewis-Beck, Michael S.; Tien, Charles; Nadeau, Richard (2010). "Obama's Missed Landslide: A Racial Cost?". PS: Political Science and Politics. 43 (1): 69–76. doi:10.1017/S1049096509990618. ISSN 1049-0965. JSTOR 25699295.
  2. ↑ "Arkansas Swing 2008". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved October 27, 2013.
  3. ↑ "2008 Election Statistics". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved May 4, 2019.
  4. ↑ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  5. ↑ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  6. ↑ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  7. ↑ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  8. 1 2 3 4 Based on Takeaway
  9. ↑ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  10. ↑ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
  11. ↑ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
  12. ↑ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  13. ↑ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  14. ↑ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  15. ↑ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  16. ↑ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  17. ↑ "Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved July 26, 2012.
  18. ↑ "Alabama: McCain vs. Obama". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved May 31, 2009.
  19. ↑ "Map: Campaign money race - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  20. ↑ Archived January 18, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
  21. ↑ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  22. ↑ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  23. ↑ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Arkansas". Retrieved December 17, 2008.
  24. ↑ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved March 31, 2023.
  25. ↑ Nasaw, Daniel (November 11, 2008). "Republican gains in three states overshadowed by Obama's success". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  26. ↑ "Official General Election Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved December 12, 2008.
  27. ↑ "2008 Presidential General Election Results - Arkansas".
  28. ↑ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
  29. ↑ "U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates". Archives.gov. Retrieved July 26, 2012.
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