2004 United States presidential election in Missouri
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,455,713 1,259,171
Percentage 53.30% 46.10%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Missouri took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Missouri was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 7.20% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 10 of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. He also won a wide majority of the counties and congressional districts in the state.

At the time, Missouri was known for its status as a bellwether state, having voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1904, apart from 1956. Although the state's streak of voting for the winner of the presidency continued, Bush carried this state with a larger margin of victory than his nationwide results, indicating that the state had become more conservative than the rest of the country and that it was trending Republican. These factors eventually led the state to lose its bellwether status in the next election, albeit by a narrow margin.

As of 2020, this is the last time Missouri voted to the left of Virginia or North Carolina, and the last time it voted significantly to the left of Indiana, as in future elections, the results of both states would align closely.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Lean R
Associated Press Lean R
CNN Likely R
Cook Political Report Lean R
Newsweek Lean R
New York Times Lean R
Rasmussen Reports Likely R
Research 2000 Toss-up
Washington Post Likely R
Washington Times Toss-up
Zogby International Likely R
Washington Dispatch Likely R

Polling

From May 2004, Bush won every single poll from the state. The final 3 polls taken from the state averaged Bush leading with 51% to 45%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,026,802.[3] Kerry raised $1,418,159.[4]

Advertising and visits

This state was considered a major swing state. Both the Republican ticket and Democratic ticket visited the state 7 times in the general election. Kerry focused mostly on the urban areas such as St. Louis and Kansas City, while Bush focused more on rural such as Warrenton and Sedalia.[5]

Analysis

This was a better result for President Bush than 2000, when he carried the state by only 3%. In 2004, he received 265,789 more votes than in 2000, while Kerry won only 148,033 more votes than Gore in 2000. Bush won by a 7% margin. Kerry won just 4 counties in the state: Jackson County, Ste. Genevieve, St. Louis County, and St. Louis City. As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Boone County voted for the Republican candidate.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Missouri[6]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Party George W. Bush (incumbent) 1,455,713 53.30% 11
Democratic Party John Kerry 1,259,171 46.10% 0
Libertarian Party Michael Badnarik 9,831 0.36% 0
Constitution Party Michael Peroutka 5,355 0.20% 0
Write In Ralph Nader 1,294 0.05% 0
Totals 2,731,364 100.00% 11
Voter turnout (Voting Age population)[7][8] 63.6%

By county

County George W. Bush
Republican		 John Kerry
Democratic		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adair 6,367 55.83% 4,938 43.30% 99 0.87% 1,429 12.53% 11,404
Andrew 5,135 62.12% 3,069 37.13% 62 0.75% 2,066 24.99% 8,266
Atchison 2,137 67.71% 1,005 31.84% 14 0.44% 1,132 35.87% 3,156
Audrain 6,294 58.92% 4,318 40.42% 71 0.66% 1,976 18.50% 10,683
Barry 9,599 68.92% 4,223 30.32% 105 0.75% 5,376 38.60% 13,927
Barton 4,572 76.31% 1,373 22.92% 46 0.77% 3,199 53.39% 5,991
Bates 5,004 59.11% 3,398 40.14% 64 0.75% 1,606 18.97% 8,466
Benton 5,575 61.88% 3,381 37.53% 53 0.59% 2,194 24.35% 9,009
Bollinger 4,102 69.58% 1,754 29.75% 39 0.66% 2,348 39.83% 5,895
Boone 37,801 49.71% 37,643 49.50% 602 0.79% 158 0.21% 76,046
Buchanan 19,812 52.21% 17,799 46.90% 339 0.89% 2,013 5.31% 37,950
Butler 11,696 71.14% 4,666 28.38% 79 0.48% 7,030 42.76% 16,441
Caldwell 2,593 60.75% 1,645 38.54% 30 0.70% 948 22.21% 4,268
Callaway 11,108 62.50% 6,559 36.90% 106 0.60% 4,549 25.60% 17,773
Camden 13,122 67.23% 6,296 32.26% 101 0.52% 6,826 34.97% 19,519
Cape Girardeau 23,814 68.90% 10,568 30.57% 183 0.53% 13,246 38.33% 34,565
Carroll 3,155 66.55% 1,568 33.07% 18 0.38% 1,587 33.48% 4,741
Carter 1,797 64.66% 964 34.69% 18 0.64% 833 29.97% 2,779
Cass 27,253 61.63% 16,681 37.73% 283 0.64% 10,572 23.90% 44,217
Cedar 4,238 68.32% 1,910 30.79% 55 0.89% 2,328 37.53% 6,203
Chariton 2,421 55.78% 1,892 43.59% 27 0.62% 529 12.19% 4,340
Christian 22,102 70.51% 9,059 28.90% 187 0.60% 13,043 41.61% 31,348
Clark 1,899 50.83% 1,794 48.02% 43 1.15% 105 2.81% 3,736
Clay 51,193 53.07% 44,670 46.31% 597 0.62% 6,523 6.76% 96,460
Clinton 5,287 55.42% 4,165 43.66% 88 0.92% 1,122 11.76% 9,540
Cole 24,752 67.44% 11,753 32.02% 196 0.54% 12,999 35.42% 36,701
Cooper 5,058 67.37% 2,400 31.97% 50 0.66% 2,658 35.40% 7,508
Crawford 5,686 60.61% 3,632 38.72% 63 0.68% 2,054 21.89% 9,381
Dade 2,963 72.46% 1,104 27.00% 22 0.55% 1,859 45.46% 4,089
Dallas 4,788 65.96% 2,407 33.16% 64 0.88% 2,381 32.80% 7,259
Daviess 2,351 61.97% 1,402 36.95% 41 1.08% 949 25.02% 3,794
DeKalb 2,941 62.76% 1,707 36.43% 38 0.81% 1,234 26.33% 4,686
Dent 4,369 69.31% 1,865 29.58% 70 1.12% 2,504 39.73% 6,304
Douglas 4,498 71.09% 1,741 27.52% 88 1.39% 2,757 43.57% 6,327
Dunklin 6,720 57.55% 4,901 41.97% 56 0.48% 1,819 15.58% 11,677
Franklin 26,429 58.32% 18,556 40.95% 333 0.73% 7,873 17.37% 45,318
Gasconade 4,753 66.28% 2,355 32.84% 63 0.88% 2,398 33.44% 7,171
Gentry 2,085 62.95% 1,201 36.26% 26 0.79% 884 26.69% 3,312
Greene 77,885 62.18% 46,657 37.25% 724 0.58% 31,228 24.93% 125,266
Grundy 3,172 65.97% 1,561 32.47% 75 1.56% 1,611 33.50% 4,808
Harrison 2,729 67.42% 1,279 31.60% 40 0.99% 1,450 35.82% 4,048
Henry 6,361 58.48% 4,461 41.01% 55 0.51% 1,900 17.47% 10,877
Hickory 2,791 57.36% 2,043 41.99% 32 0.66% 748 15.37% 4,866
Holt 1,864 69.27% 811 30.14% 16 0.59% 1,053 39.13% 2,691
Howard 2,915 59.24% 1,972 40.07% 34 0.69% 943 19.17% 4,921
Howell 11,097 67.75% 5,118 31.25% 164 1.00% 5,979 36.50% 16,379
Iron 2,477 52.94% 2,157 46.10% 45 0.96% 320 6.84% 4,679
Jackson 130,500 41.30% 183,654 58.12% 1,839 0.58% -53,154 -16.82% 315,993
Jasper 31,846 70.64% 13,002 28.84% 237 0.53% 18,844 41.80% 45,085
Jefferson 46,624 49.99% 46,057 49.38% 583 0.63% 567 0.61% 93,264
Johnson 12,257 60.57% 7,790 38.50% 189 0.93% 4,467 22.07% 20,236
Knox 1,207 61.02% 761 38.47% 10 0.51% 446 22.55% 1,978
Laclede 10,578 71.14% 4,213 28.33% 78 0.52% 6,365 42.81% 14,869
Lafayette 9,656 59.67% 6,412 39.62% 114 0.70% 3,244 20.05% 16,182
Lawrence 11,194 70.82% 4,506 28.51% 106 0.67% 6,688 42.31% 15,806
Lewis 2,862 61.63% 1,754 37.77% 28 0.60% 1,108 23.86% 4,644
Lincoln 11,316 57.04% 8,368 42.18% 155 0.78% 2,948 14.86% 19,839
Linn 3,422 58.02% 2,440 41.37% 36 0.61% 982 16.65% 5,898
Livingston 4,029 63.49% 2,278 35.90% 39 0.61% 1,751 27.59% 6,346
Macon 4,673 61.73% 2,856 37.73% 41 0.54% 1,817 24.00% 7,570
Madison 2,905 59.07% 1,972 40.10% 41 0.83% 933 18.97% 4,918
Maries 2,825 63.86% 1,563 35.33% 36 0.81% 1,262 28.53% 4,424
Marion 7,815 62.76% 4,568 36.68% 70 0.56% 3,247 26.08% 12,453
McDonald 5,443 70.46% 2,215 28.67% 67 0.87% 3,228 41.79% 7,725
Mercer 1,207 66.43% 582 32.03% 28 1.54% 625 34.40% 1,817
Miller 7,797 71.99% 2,959 27.32% 75 0.69% 4,838 44.67% 10,831
Mississippi 2,903 54.79% 2,374 44.81% 21 0.40% 529 9.98% 5,298
Moniteau 4,743 70.89% 1,913 28.59% 35 0.52% 2,830 42.30% 6,691
Monroe 2,632 61.11% 1,647 38.24% 28 0.65% 985 22.87% 4,307
Montgomery 3,563 61.86% 2,147 37.27% 50 0.87% 1,416 24.59% 5,760
Morgan 5,657 64.50% 3,053 34.81% 61 0.69% 2,604 29.69% 8,771
New Madrid 4,154 52.54% 3,716 47.00% 37 0.47% 438 5.54% 7,907
Newton 17,187 71.95% 6,564 27.48% 138 0.58% 10,623 44.47% 23,889
Nodaway 6,226 61.53% 3,830 37.85% 63 0.62% 2,396 23.68% 10,119
Oregon 2,769 59.26% 1,823 39.01% 81 1.73% 946 20.25% 4,673
Osage 4,975 74.58% 1,673 25.08% 23 0.34% 3,302 49.50% 6,671
Ozark 3,083 65.50% 1,561 33.16% 63 1.34% 1,522 32.34% 4,707
Pemiscot 3,398 49.93% 3,381 49.68% 27 0.40% 17 0.25% 6,806
Perry 5,583 67.70% 2,621 31.78% 43 0.52% 2,962 35.92% 8,247
Pettis 11,603 66.32% 5,801 33.16% 92 0.53% 5,802 33.16% 17,496
Phelps 11,874 63.50% 6,666 35.65% 160 0.85% 5,208 27.85% 18,700
Pike 4,314 53.66% 3,670 45.65% 56 0.70% 644 8.01% 8,040
Platte 23,302 55.52% 18,412 43.87% 256 0.61% 4,890 11.65% 41,970
Polk 8,586 68.95% 3,775 30.31% 92 0.74% 4,811 38.64% 12,453
Pulaski 8,618 70.52% 3,551 29.06% 52 0.43% 5,067 41.46% 12,221
Putnam 1,660 67.89% 772 31.57% 13 0.53% 888 36.32% 2,445
Ralls 2,986 59.32% 2,031 40.35% 17 0.34% 955 18.97% 5,034
Randolph 6,551 64.24% 3,586 35.16% 61 0.60% 2,965 29.08% 10,198
Ray 5,673 52.59% 5,034 46.66% 81 0.75% 639 5.93% 10,788
Reynolds 1,896 56.36% 1,449 43.07% 19 0.57% 447 13.29% 3,364
Ripley 3,693 65.33% 1,907 33.73% 53 0.94% 1,786 31.60% 5,653
Saline 5,389 54.22% 4,479 45.06% 71 0.71% 910 9.16% 9,939
Schuyler 1,124 55.34% 894 44.02% 13 0.64% 230 11.32% 2,031
Scotland 1,352 61.54% 828 37.69% 17 0.77% 524 23.85% 2,197
Scott 11,330 64.94% 6,057 34.71% 61 0.35% 5,273 30.23% 17,448
Shannon 2,511 60.26% 1,618 38.83% 38 0.91% 893 21.43% 4,167
Shelby 2,280 65.11% 1,201 34.29% 21 0.60% 1,079 30.82% 3,502
St. Charles 95,826 58.61% 66,855 40.89% 807 0.50% 28,971 17.72% 163,488
St. Clair 3,098 62.40% 1,841 37.08% 26 0.52% 1,257 25.32% 4,965
St. Francois 12,087 52.71% 10,748 46.87% 98 0.43% 1,339 5.84% 22,933
St. Louis 244,969 45.12% 295,284 54.38% 2,730 0.50% -50,315 -9.26% 542,983
St. Louis City 27,793 19.22% 116,133 80.29% 712 0.49% -88,340 -61.07% 144,638
Ste. Genevieve 3,791 46.54% 4,281 52.55% 74 0.91% -490 -6.01% 8,146
Stoddard 9,242 69.74% 3,946 29.78% 64 0.48% 5,296 39.96% 13,252
Stone 10,534 69.35% 4,578 30.14% 77 0.51% 5,956 39.21% 15,189
Sullivan 1,880 60.86% 1,178 38.14% 31 1.00% 702 22.72% 3,089
Taney 13,578 70.43% 5,601 29.05% 101 0.52% 7,977 41.38% 19,280
Texas 7,234 65.66% 3,664 33.25% 120 1.09% 3,570 32.41% 11,018
Vernon 5,732 63.75% 3,206 35.65% 54 0.60% 2,526 28.10% 8,992
Warren 7,883 58.69% 5,461 40.66% 88 0.66% 2,422 18.03% 13,432
Washington 4,641 50.57% 4,459 48.58% 78 0.85% 182 1.99% 9,178
Wayne 3,919 63.17% 2,250 36.27% 35 0.56% 1,669 26.90% 6,204
Webster 10,194 68.21% 4,657 31.16% 93 0.62% 5,537 37.05% 14,944
Worth 691 61.04% 436 38.52% 5 0.44% 255 22.52% 1,132
Wright 6,090 72.97% 2,188 26.22% 68 0.82% 3,902 46.75% 8,346
Totals1,455,71353.30%1,259,17146.10%16,4800.60%196,5427.20%2,731,364
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Bush won 6 of 9 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[9]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 25% 75% William Lacy Clay, Jr.
2nd 60% 40% Todd Akin
3rd 43% 57% Dick Gephardt
Russ Carnahan
4th 64% 35% Ike Skelton
5th 40% 59% Karen McCarthy
Emanuel Cleaver
6th 57% 42% Sam Graves
7th 67% 32% Roy Blunt
8th 64% 36% Jo Ann Emerson
9th 59% 41% Kenny Hulshof

Electors

Technically the voters of Missouri cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Missouri is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged for Bush/Cheney.[10]

  1. Rosemary Kochner
  2. Fred Dyer
  3. Miriam Stonebraker
  4. Carolyn McDowell
  5. Cathy Owens
  6. Steve Krueger
  7. Emory Melton
  8. John Schudy
  9. Richard Hardy
  10. John Marschalk
  11. Warren Erdman

See also

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
  2. ↑ "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  3. ↑ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
  4. ↑ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
  5. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
  6. ↑ "2004 Presidential General Election Results - Missouri".
  7. ↑ Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org.
  8. ↑ IT, Missouri Secretary of State -. "News". www.sos.mo.gov.
  9. ↑ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". www.swingstateproject.com.
  10. ↑ Archived copy Archived 2004-11-12 at the Wayback Machine
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