2004 United States presidential election in Ohio
November 2, 2004
Turnout70.6% (of registered voters)
65.3% (of voting age population)
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 20 0
Popular vote 2,859,768 2,741,167
Percentage 50.81% 48.71%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Ohio took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 20 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Ohio was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 2.10% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered the Buckeye state as a swing state. The state's economic situation gave hope for John Kerry. In the end, the state became the deciding factor of the entire election. Kerry conceded the state, and the entire election, the morning following election night, as Bush won the state and its 20 electoral votes. The close contest was the subject of the documentary film ...So Goes the Nation, the title of which is a reference to Ohio's 2004 status as a crucial swing state. If Kerry won the state, he would have won the presidency with 272 electoral votes despite losing the popular vote, and would have been the first Democrat to achieve this feat; this also meant that if Bush lost the state, he would have lost re-election, and have been a one-term president despite winning the popular vote, which would have made him the first Republican to achieve this feat. Furthermore, if Bush lost re-election, he would have followed his father, George H. W. Bush, in being a one-term president who lost re-election and repeated the United States presidential electoral history of the Adams political family.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time Ohio voted more Democratic than the nation as a whole, as well as the last time Hamilton County voted for a Republican presidential candidate. Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Stark County since Benjamin Harrison in 1888.

Primaries

  • 2004 Ohio Democratic presidential primary

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations that made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Lean R
Associated Press Toss-up
CNN Lean D (flip)
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Newsweek Toss-up
New York Times Toss-up
Rasmussen Reports Toss-up
Research 2000 Toss-up
Washington Post Toss-up
Washington Times Toss-up
Zogby International Toss-up
Washington Dispatch Lean D (flip)

Polling

Pre-election polling showed a lot of volatility throughout the general election. In September, Bush was gaining momentum here, reaching over 50% in several polls and even reaching double digit margins in some. But in October, Kerry gained back momentum as he started winning many of the polls, leading with from 48% to as high as 50%. The last 3 polls averaged Kerry leading 49% to 48%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $7,349,944.[3] Kerry raised $3,428,504.[4]

Advertising and visits

Both candidates campaigned heavily. Bush visited the state 18 times to Kerry's 23 times.[5] Almost every week, over $10 million was spent on television advertising.[6]

Analysis

CNN Exit polling showed that Bush barely won the state. Among male voters, he won with 52%. Among female voters, it was tied 50-50. Also, 53% of the voters approved of Bush's job as president.[7]

Bush dominated in the rural areas, while Kerry dominated and won most of the counties with large populations. Overall, Bush won most of the counties and congressional districts in the state. All the congressional districts Kerry won were in the northern section of the state.[8]

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Ohio[8]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 2,859,768 50.81% 20
Democratic John Kerry 2,741,167 48.71% 0
Independent Michael Badnarik 14,676 0.26% 0
Independent Michael Peroutka 11,939 0.21% 0
Others Others 358 0.01% 0
Totals 5,627,908 100.00% 20
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 65.3%

Results by county

County George W. Bush
Republican		 John Kerry
Democratic		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 7,653 63.78% 4,281 35.67% 66 0.55% 3,372 28.11% 12,000
Allen 32,580 66.14% 16,470 33.44% 206 0.42% 16,110 32.70% 49,256
Ashland 16,209 64.89% 8,576 34.33% 194 0.78% 7,633 30.56% 24,979
Ashtabula 21,038 46.33% 24,060 52.99% 309 0.68% -3,022 -6.66% 45,407
Athens 10,847 36.10% 18,998 63.23% 200 0.67% -8,151 -27.13% 30,045
Auglaize 17,016 73.87% 5,903 25.63% 115 0.50% 11,113 48.24% 23,034
Belmont 15,589 46.78% 17,576 52.75% 157 0.47% -1,987 -5.97% 33,322
Brown 12,647 63.58% 7,140 35.89% 105 0.53% 5,507 27.69% 19,892
Butler 109,872 65.86% 56,243 33.72% 704 0.42% 53,629 32.14% 166,819
Carroll 7,695 54.53% 6,300 44.64% 117 0.83% 1,395 9.89% 14,112
Champaign 11,718 62.41% 6,968 37.11% 90 0.48% 4,750 25.30% 18,776
Clark 34,941 50.78% 33,535 48.74% 331 0.48% 1,406 2.04% 68,807
Clermont 62,949 70.67% 25,887 29.06% 243 0.27% 37,062 41.61% 89,079
Clinton 12,938 70.26% 5,417 29.42% 59 0.32% 7,521 40.84% 18,414
Columbiana 25,753 52.06% 23,429 47.37% 283 0.57% 2,324 4.69% 49,465
Coshocton 9,839 56.86% 7,378 42.64% 86 0.50% 2,461 14.22% 17,303
Crawford 13,885 63.69% 7,773 35.65% 143 0.66% 6,112 28.04% 21,801
Cuyahoga 221,600 32.89% 448,503 66.57% 3,674 0.54% -226,903 -33.68% 673,777
Darke 18,306 69.57% 7,846 29.82% 161 0.61% 10,460 39.75% 26,313
Defiance 11,397 61.55% 6,975 37.67% 144 0.78% 4,422 23.88% 18,516
Delaware 53,143 66.05% 27,048 33.62% 265 0.33% 26,095 32.43% 80,456
Erie 18,597 46.39% 21,421 53.44% 67 0.17% -2,824 -7.05% 40,085
Fairfield 42,715 62.92% 24,783 36.51% 384 0.57% 17,932 26.41% 67,882
Fayette 7,376 62.74% 4,334 36.86% 47 0.40% 3,042 25.88% 11,757
Franklin 237,253 45.12% 285,801 54.35% 2,773 0.53% -48,548 -9.23% 525,827
Fulton 13,640 62.13% 8,224 37.46% 90 0.41% 5,416 24.67% 21,954
Gallia 8,576 61.29% 5,366 38.35% 51 0.36% 3,210 22.94% 13,993
Geauga 30,370 60.21% 19,850 39.35% 222 0.44% 10,520 20.86% 50,442
Greene 48,388 61.03% 30,531 38.51% 363 0.46% 17,847 22.52% 79,282
Guernsey 9,962 55.84% 7,768 43.54% 110 0.62% 2,194 12.30% 17,840
Hamilton 222,616 52.50% 199,679 47.09% 1,730 0.41% 22,937 5.41% 424,025
Hancock 25,105 70.48% 10,352 29.06% 162 0.45% 14,753 41.42% 35,619
Hardin 8,441 63.03% 4,891 36.52% 60 0.45% 3,550 26.51% 13,392
Harrison 4,274 52.71% 3,780 46.61% 55 0.68% 494 6.10% 8,109
Henry 9,902 65.55% 5,111 33.84% 92 0.61% 4,791 31.71% 15,105
Highland 12,211 66.07% 6,194 33.52% 76 0.41% 6,017 32.55% 18,481
Hocking 6,936 52.55% 6,175 46.78% 88 0.67% 761 5.77% 13,199
Holmes 8,468 75.47% 2,697 24.02% 55 0.51% 5,771 51.45% 11,220
Huron 14,817 57.97% 10,568 41.35% 173 0.68% 4,249 16.62% 25,558
Jackson 8,585 59.89% 5,700 39.77% 49 0.34% 2,885 20.12% 14,334
Jefferson 17,185 47.25% 19,024 52.30% 163 0.45% -1,839 -5.05% 36,372
Knox 17,068 63.11% 9,820 36.31% 157 0.58% 7,248 26.80% 27,045
Lake 62,193 51.05% 59,049 48.47% 581 0.48% 3,144 2.58% 121,823
Lawrence 15,455 55.77% 12,120 43.74% 135 0.49% 3,335 12.03% 27,710
Licking 49,016 61.72% 30,053 37.84% 351 0.44% 18,963 23.88% 79,420
Logan 14,471 67.63% 6,825 31.90% 102 0.48% 7,646 35.73% 21,398
Lorain 61,203 43.49% 78,970 56.11% 569 0.40% -17,767 -12.62% 140,742
Lucas 87,160 39.54% 132,715 60.21% 555 0.25% -45,555 -20.67% 220,430
Madison 11,117 63.90% 6,203 35.65% 78 0.45% 4,914 28.25% 17,398
Mahoning 48,761 36.69% 83,194 62.60% 949 0.71% -34,433 -25.91% 132,904
Marion 17,171 58.69% 11,930 40.78% 157 0.54% 5,241 17.91% 29,258
Medina 48,196 56.78% 36,272 42.73% 410 0.49% 11,924 14.05% 84,878
Meigs 6,272 58.23% 4,438 41.20% 61 0.57% 1,834 17.03% 10,771
Mercer 15,650 74.92% 5,118 24.50% 122 0.58% 10,532 50.42% 20,890
Miami 33,992 65.67% 17,606 34.01% 162 0.32% 16,386 31.66% 51,760
Monroe 3,424 44.30% 4,243 54.90% 62 0.80% -819 -10.60% 7,729
Montgomery 138,371 48.97% 142,997 50.60% 1,216 0.43% -4,626 -1.63% 282,584
Morgan 3,758 56.06% 2,875 42.89% 70 1.04% 883 13.17% 6,703
Morrow 10,474 64.15% 5,775 35.37% 79 0.48% 4,699 28.78% 16,328
Muskingum 22,254 57.26% 16,421 42.25% 191 0.49% 5,833 15.01% 38,866
Noble 3,841 58.73% 2,654 40.58% 45 0.69% 1,187 18.15% 6,540
Ottawa 12,073 51.91% 11,118 47.80% 68 0.29% 955 4.11% 23,259
Paulding 6,206 62.82% 3,610 36.54% 63 0.64% 2,596 26.28% 9,879
Perry 7,856 51.72% 7,257 47.78% 76 0.50% 599 3.94% 15,189
Pickaway 14,161 61.97% 8,579 37.54% 112 0.49% 5,582 24.43% 22,852
Pike 6,520 51.84% 5,989 47.63% 67 0.53% 531 4.21% 12,576
Portage 35,583 46.42% 40,675 53.07% 389 0.51% -5,092 -6.65% 76,647
Preble 13,734 65.01% 7,274 34.43% 119 0.56% 6,460 30.58% 21,127
Putnam 14,370 76.24% 4,392 23.30% 87 0.46% 9,978 52.94% 18,849
Richland 36,872 59.62% 24,638 39.84% 330 0.53% 12,234 19.78% 61,840
Ross 17,231 54.41% 13,978 44.14% 462 1.46% 3,253 10.27% 31,671
Sandusky 16,224 55.92% 12,686 43.72% 104 0.36% 3,538 12.20% 29,014
Scioto 18,259 51.87% 16,827 47.80% 117 0.33% 1,432 4.07% 35,203
Seneca 15,886 58.86% 10,957 40.60% 148 0.55% 4,929 18.26% 26,991
Shelby 16,204 70.90% 6,535 28.59% 116 0.51% 9,669 42.31% 22,855
Stark 92,215 48.93% 95,337 50.59% 907 0.48% -3,122 -1.66% 188,459
Summit 118,558 42.91% 156,587 56.67% 1,175 0.42% -38,029 -13.76% 276,320
Trumbull 40,977 37.89% 66,673 61.65% 495 0.46% -25,696 -23.76% 108,145
Tuscarawas 23,829 55.54% 18,853 43.94% 224 0.52% 4,976 11.60% 42,906
Union 15,870 70.13% 6,665 29.45% 96 0.42% 9,205 40.68% 22,631
Van Wert 10,678 72.02% 4,095 27.62% 54 0.36% 6,583 44.40% 14,827
Vinton 3,249 54.82% 2,651 44.70% 28 0.47% 598 10.12% 5,928
Warren 68,037 72.06% 26,044 27.58% 341 0.36% 41,993 44.48% 94,422
Washington 17,532 58.02% 12,538 41.49% 146 0.48% 4,994 16.53% 30,216
Wayne 31,879 61.49% 19,786 38.16% 183 0.35% 12,093 23.33% 51,848
Williams 12,040 64.60% 6,481 34.77% 118 0.63% 5,559 29.83% 18,639
Wood 33,592 53.03% 29,401 46.41% 353 0.56% 4,191 6.62% 63,346
Wyandot 7,254 65.69% 3,708 33.58% 81 0.73% 3,546 32.11% 11,043
Totals2,859,76850.81%2,741,16748.71%26,9730.48%118,6012.10%5,627,908
George W. Bush John Kerry Total
Counties won 72 16 88
Best score Putnam County (76.24%) Cuyahoga County (66.57%) .
Counties won under statewide margin (2.10%) 1 1 2
Clark County (2.04%) Stark County (1.66%) .
Counties won under nationwide margin (2.46%) 1 1 2
Clark County (2.04%) Stark County (1.66%) .
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Bush won 13 of 18 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[9]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 51% 49% Steve Chabot
2nd 64% 36% Rob Portman
Jean Schmidt
3rd 54% 46% Mike Turner
4th 65% 34% Mike Oxley
5th 61% 39% Paul Gillmor
6th 51% 49% Ted Strickland
7th 57% 43% David Hobson
8th 64% 35% John Boehner
9th 42% 58% Marcy Kaptur
10th 41% 58% Dennis Kucinich
11th 18% 81% Stephanie Tubbs Jones
12th 51% 49% Pat Tiberi
13th 44% 56% Sherrod Brown
14th 53% 47% Steven LaTourette
15th 50% 50% Deborah Pryce
16th 54% 46% Ralph Regula
17th 37% 63% Tim Ryan
18th 57% 43% Bob Ney

Electors

Technically the voters of Ohio cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Ohio is allocated 20 electors because it has 18 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 20 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 20 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 20 were pledged for Bush/Cheney.

  1. Spencer R. Raleigh
  2. Joyce M. Houck
  3. Betty Jo Sherman
  4. Gary C. Suhadolnik
  5. Randy Law
  6. Leslie J. Spaeth
  7. David Whipple Johnson
  8. Robert S. Frost
  9. Alex R. Arshinkoff
  10. Phil A. Bowman
  11. Jon Allison
  12. Katharina Hooper
  13. Pernel Jones
  14. Henry M. Butch O'Neill
  15. William O. Dewitt
  16. Karyle Mumper
  17. Owen V. Hall
  18. Merom Brachman
  19. Kirk Schuring
  20. Billie Jean Fiore

Objection to certification of Ohio's electoral votes

On January 6, 2005, Senator Barbara Boxer joined Representative Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Ohio in filing a Congressional objection to the certification of Ohio's Electoral College votes due to alleged irregularities including disqualification of provisional ballots, alleged misallocation of voting machines, and disproportionately long waits in predominantly African-American communities.[10][11] Ohio's polling locations and equipment are determined by two Democrats and two Republicans serving on the county's Board of Elections, which ensures that any decision made about polling resources is bipartisan.[12] The Senate voted the objection down 74–1; the House voted the objection down 267–31.[10] At the time, it was only the second Congressional objection to an entire State's electoral delegation in U.S. history; the first instance was in 1877, when all the electors from three southern states were challenged, and one from Oregon.[10][13] The third instance was in 2021, when Republicans objected to the certification of the electors from Arizona and Pennsylvania. An objection to a single faithless elector was also filed in 1969.[10]

See also

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
  2. ↑ 2004 Presidential Election Polls. Ohio polls US Election Atlas
  3. ↑ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com. Retrieved April 16, 2018.
  4. ↑ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com. Retrieved April 16, 2018.
  5. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 16, 2018.
  6. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 16, 2018.
  7. ↑ "CNN.com Election 2004". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 16, 2018.
  8. 1 2 Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved April 16, 2018.
  9. ↑ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
  10. 1 2 3 4 Ted, Barrett (January 6, 2005), "Bush carries Electoral College after delay", CNN, archived from the original on April 23, 2009, retrieved May 23, 2009
  11. ↑ Barbara, Boxer (January 6, 2005), Press Release of Senator Boxer: Statement On Her Objection To The Certification Of Ohio's Electoral Votes, archived from the original on June 7, 2008, retrieved May 23, 2009
  12. ↑ "Secure Elections" (PDF). County Board of Election graphic.
  13. ↑ "Electoral Commission Deliberation", Hayes vs. Tilden: The Electoral College Controversy of 1876–1877, HarpWeek, retrieved May 23, 2009
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