2004 United States presidential election in Oregon
November 2, 2004
Turnout68%
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 943,163 866,831
Percentage 51.35% 47.19%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Oregon took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose seven representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Oregon was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 4.16 point margin of victory. Prior to the election, news organizations considered the state a tossup or leaning Kerry. A moderate amount of campaigning took place here, as Kerry won every poll after October 14, each with between 47% and 53% of the vote. Despite the state having been very competitive and being barely won by Al Gore four years earlier, Oregon is a consistent blue state that no Republican has won in a presidential election since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Kerry won this state with a modest margin, indicating Oregon's Democratic trend. This is the most recent presidential election in which Oregon was considered a swing state.[1]

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Clackamas County voted for a Republican presidential candidate as well as the final time the state's margin would be in the single digits,[2] and the last time a Republican received more than 45% of the state's vote. This election marked the only time in history that a Republican has been elected twice as president without ever carrying Oregon.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[3]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Lean D
Associated Press Toss-up
CNN Likely D
Cook Political Report Lean D
Newsweek Lean D
New York Times Lean D
Rasmussen Reports Likely D
Research 2000 Solid D
Washington Post Toss-up
Washington Times Toss-up
Zogby International Likely D
Washington Dispatch Likely D

Polling

Kerry won most pre-election polling. The final 3 poll average had Kerry leading 50% to 45% for Bush.[4]

Fundraising

Bush raised $1,497,451.[5] Kerry raised $1,937,916.[6]

Advertising and visits

In the week of September 28, both tickets combined spent an estimated $546,000 on advertising. However, both tickets spent less and less money each week.[7] Bush visited here 2 times. Kerry visited here 3 times. Both tickets visited the western part of the state.[8]

Analysis

After the 2000 election, which saw a particularly close race, Oregon was largely considered a potential Republican target. However, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry won 51% of Oregon's vote, narrowly defeating Republican incumbent George W. Bush. The rural and highly conservative eastern interior and Southern Oregon favored Bush, but Kerry's strong support in the more urban Willamette Valley allowed him to win the state. About 68% of the voting age population came out to vote.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Oregon
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 943,163 51.35% 7
Republican George W. Bush 866,831 47.19% 0
Write Ins 8,956 0.49% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 7,260 0.40% 0
Pacific Green David Cobb 5,315 0.29% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka 5,257 0.29% 0
Totals 1,836,782 100.00% 7
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 67.8%

Results by county

County John Kerry
Democratic		 George W. Bush
Republican		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total votes cast
#  % #  % #  % #  %
Baker 2,616 28.96% 6,253 69.22% 165 1.83% -3,637 -40.26% 9,034
Benton 26,515 57.98% 18,460 40.36% 760 1.67% 8,055 17.62% 45,735
Clackamas 95,129 48.78% 97,691 50.10% 2,180 1.12% -2,562 -1.32% 195,000
Clatsop 10,461 54.18% 8,503 44.04% 345 1.79% 1,958 10.14% 19,309
Columbia 12,563 50.42% 11,868 47.63% 486 1.95% 695 2.79% 24,917
Coos 14,393 43.14% 18,291 54.83% 678 2.03% -3,898 -11.69% 33,362
Crook 3,024 30.09% 6,830 67.95% 197 1.96% -3,806 -37.86% 10,051
Curry 5,220 40.78% 7,332 57.29% 247 1.93% -2,112 -16.51% 12,799
Deschutes 31,179 42.11% 41,757 56.39% 1,112 1.50% -10,578 -14.28% 74,048
Douglas 18,089 32.90% 35,956 65.39% 939 1.71% -17,867 -32.49% 54,984
Gilliam 370 32.51% 755 66.34% 13 1.14% -385 -33.83% 1,138
Grant 780 19.21% 3,204 78.90% 77 1.90% -2,424 -59.69% 4,061
Harney 839 22.66% 2,815 76.04% 48 1.30% -1,976 -53.38% 3,702
Hood River 5,587 56.67% 4,124 41.83% 148 1.50% 1,463 14.84% 9,859
Jackson 44,366 43.42% 56,519 55.31% 1,304 1.28% -12,153 -11.89% 102,189
Jefferson 3,243 39.96% 4,762 58.68% 110 1.36% -1,519 -18.72% 8,115
Josephine 15,214 35.99% 26,241 62.07% 820 1.94% -11,027 -26.08% 42,275
Klamath 8,264 26.22% 22,733 72.13% 518 1.64% -14,469 -45.91% 31,515
Lake 802 20.54% 3,039 77.82% 64 1.64% -2,237 -57.28% 3,905
Lane 107,769 57.98% 75,007 40.35% 3,096 1.67% 32,762 17.63% 185,872
Lincoln 13,753 56.54% 10,160 41.77% 412 1.69% 3,593 14.77% 24,325
Linn 19,940 38.32% 31,260 60.07% 841 1.62% -11,320 -21.75% 52,041
Malheur 2,577 23.76% 8,123 74.89% 146 1.35% -5,546 -51.13% 10,846
Marion 57,671 44.49% 69,900 53.93% 2,048 1.58% -12,229 -9.44% 129,619
Morrow 1,361 32.80% 2,732 65.85% 56 1.35% -1,371 -33.05% 4,149
Multnomah 259,585 71.57% 98,439 27.14% 4,670 1.29% 161,146 44.43% 362,694
Polk 15,484 43.63% 19,508 54.97% 497 1.40% -4,024 -11.34% 35,489
Sherman 390 35.33% 694 62.86% 20 1.81% -304 -27.53% 1,104
Tillamook 6,750 48.38% 7,003 50.20% 198 1.42% -253 -1.82% 13,951
Umatilla 8,884 33.75% 17,068 64.84% 370 1.41% -8,184 -31.09% 26,322
Union 4,428 32.75% 8,879 65.68% 212 1.57% -4,451 -32.93% 13,519
Wallowa 1,269 28.07% 3,132 69.28% 120 2.65% -1,863 -41.21% 4,521
Wasco 5,691 47.42% 6,119 50.98% 192 1.60% -428 -3.56% 12,002
Washington 121,140 52.37% 107,223 46.36% 2,945 1.27% 13,917 6.01% 231,308
Wheeler 245 27.84% 612 69.55% 23 2.61% -367 -41.71% 880
Yamhill 17,572 41.70% 23,839 56.57% 731 1.73% -6,267 -14.87% 42,142
Totals943,16351.35%866,83147.19%26,7881.46%76,3324.16%1,836,782

By congressional district

Kerry won 3 of 5 congressional districts. Bush won 2, including one held by a Democrat.[9]

District Kerry Bush Representative
1st 55% 44% David Wu
2nd 38% 61% Greg Walden
3rd 67% 33% Earl Blumenauer
4th 49% 49% Peter DeFazio
5th 49% 50% Darlene Hooley

Electors

Technically the voters of Oregon cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Oregon is allocated 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All seven were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.

  1. Michael J. Bohan
  2. Shirley A. Cairns
  3. James L. Edmunson
  4. Moshe D. Lenske
  5. Meredith Wood Smith
  6. Judy A. Sugnet
  7. Paul F. Zastrow

See also

References

  1. ↑ Levien, Andrea (October 4, 2012). "How New Mexico Lost Its Swing". FairVote. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  2. ↑ Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
  3. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
  4. ↑ "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  5. ↑ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
  6. ↑ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
  7. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
  8. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
  9. ↑ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
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