2004 United States presidential election in Washington (state)
November 2, 2004
Turnout82.05% (of registered voters) Increase6.59%[1]
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,510,201 1,304,894
Percentage 52.82% 45.64%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Washington took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

The State of Washington was considered a competitive swing state in 2004, and on election day, Kerry won the state with a margin of 7.2%. This is the most recent presidential election in which Washington was considered a swing state.[2] As of the 2020 presidential election, this remains the last time the state's margin of victory was in single digits and the last time a Republican received more than 45% of the state's vote. This also remains the only time since statehood that any president was elected twice without carrying Washington either time.

Caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[3]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Solid D
Cook Political Report Solid D
Newsweek Solid D
Zogby International Likely D
Washington Post Likely D
Research 2000 Solid D
Washington Times Solid D
Washington Dispatch Likely D
The New York Times Solid D
CNN Likely D
Associated Press Solid D
Rasmussen Reports Likely D

Polling

Kerry won every single pre-election except one tie. The final 3 poll average had Kerry winning with 50% to 45%.[4]

Fundraising

Bush raised $3,263,363.[5] Kerry raised $5,337,921.[6]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.[7][8]

Analysis

A Democratic leaning swing state at the time, Washington has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every presidential election since 1988. Like Oregon, the state is divided politically by the urban/rural divide and geographically by the Cascade Mountains. Most of the state's population resides in Western Washington along the Pacific Coast and in highly urbanized areas like Seattle; this part of the state votes overwhelmingly Democratic. The other side of the mountains in Eastern Washington is much more rural and conservative and therefore heavily Republican. While polling showed that voters trusted Bush more than Kerry on the issue of terrorism, the Iraq War and Bush's domestic policies were unpopular in the state.[9] As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Clark County, Island County, and Skagit County voted for the Republican candidate.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Washington (state)
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Forbes Kerry John Reid Edwards 1,510,201 52.82% 11
Republican George Walker Bush (Incumbent) Richard Bruce Cheney (Incumbent) 1,304,894 45.64% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Peter Camejo 23,283 0.81% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 11,955 0.42% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 3,922 0.14% 0
Green David Cobb Pat LaMarche 2,974 0.10% 0
Workers World John Parker Teresa Gutierrez 1,077 0.04% 0
Socialist Workers Roger Calero Margaret Trowe 547 0.02% 0
Socialist Equality Bill Van Auken Jim Lawrence 231 0.01% 0
Totals 2,859,084 100.00% 11
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 61.7%

By county

County John Kerry
Democratic		 George W. Bush
Republican		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 1,315 25.65% 3,751 73.16% 61 1.19% -2,436 -47.51% 5,127
Asotin 3,319 37.78% 5,320 60.55% 147 1.67% -2,001 -22.77% 8,786
Benton 21,549 32.21% 44,350 66.30% 993 1.48% -22,801 -34.09% 66,892
Chelan 10,471 35.58% 18,482 62.80% 477 1.62% -8,011 -27.22% 29,430
Clallam 17,049 46.37% 18,871 51.33% 846 2.30% -1,822 -4.96% 36,766
Clark 79,538 46.65% 88,646 51.99% 2,311 1.36% -9,108 -5.34% 170,495
Columbia 605 28.71% 1,470 69.77% 32 1.52% -865 -41.06% 2,107
Cowlitz 21,589 50.76% 20,217 47.54% 724 1.71% 1,372 3.22% 42,530
Douglas 4,306 32.20% 8,900 66.56% 166 1.25% -4,594 -34.36% 13,372
Ferry 1,201 35.92% 2,019 60.38% 124 3.71% -818 -24.46% 3,344
Franklin 5,188 32.11% 10,757 66.57% 214 1.32% -5,569 -34.46% 16,159
Garfield 365 27.65% 935 70.83% 20 1.51% -570 -43.18% 1,320
Grant 7,779 29.92% 17,799 68.47% 417 1.60% -10,020 -38.55% 25,995
Grays Harbor 14,583 52.17% 12,871 46.05% 499 1.78% 1,712 6.12% 27,953
Island 18,216 47.22% 19,754 51.20% 610 1.58% -1,538 -3.98% 38,580
Jefferson 11,610 62.25% 6,650 35.66% 390 2.09% 4,960 26.59% 18,650
King 580,378 64.87% 301,043 33.65% 13,307 1.48% 279,335 31.22% 894,728
Kitsap 60,796 51.23% 55,608 46.86% 2,266 1.91% 5,188 4.37% 118,670
Kittitas 6,731 41.77% 9,052 56.17% 331 2.05% -2,321 -14.40% 16,114
Klickitat 4,036 43.63% 5,016 54.23% 198 2.15% -980 -10.60% 9,250
Lewis 10,726 33.08% 21,042 64.89% 660 2.04% -10,316 -31.81% 32,428
Lincoln 1,706 29.36% 4,015 69.09% 90 1.56% -2,309 -39.73% 5,811
Mason 12,894 50.78% 11,987 47.20% 513 2.01% 907 3.58% 25,394
Okanogan 6,309 38.61% 9,636 58.96% 397 2.43% -3,327 -20.35% 16,342
Pacific 5,570 53.40% 4,634 44.43% 227 2.17% 936 8.97% 10,431
Pend Oreille 2,310 37.27% 3,693 59.58% 195 3.14% -1,383 -22.31% 6,198
Pierce 158,231 50.43% 150,783 48.05% 4,779 1.53% 7,448 2.38% 313,793
San Juan 6,589 65.21% 3,290 32.56% 225 2.23% 3,299 32.65% 10,104
Skagit 25,131 48.05% 26,139 49.98% 1,029 1.96% -1,008 -1.93% 52,299
Skamania 2,374 46.02% 2,695 52.24% 90 1.74% -321 -6.22% 5,159
Snohomish 156,468 52.97% 134,317 45.47% 4,629 1.57% 22,151 7.50% 295,414
Spokane 87,490 43.19% 111,606 55.09% 3,491 1.72% -24,116 -11.90% 202,587
Stevens 6,822 33.54% 13,015 63.99% 503 2.47% -6,193 -30.45% 20,340
Thurston 62,650 55.55% 47,992 42.55% 2,147 1.90% 14,658 13.00% 112,789
Wahkiakum 1,021 45.68% 1,171 52.39% 43 1.92% -150 -6.71% 2,235
Walla Walla 8,257 36.02% 14,323 62.48% 345 1.50% -6,066 -26.46% 22,925
Whatcom 48,268 53.40% 40,296 44.58% 1,830 2.02% 7,972 8.82% 90,394
Whitman 8,287 46.01% 9,397 52.17% 328 1.83% -1,110 -6.16% 18,012
Yakima 28,474 39.12% 43,352 59.56% 964 1.32% -14,878 -20.44% 72,790
Totals1,510,20152.77%1,304,89445.60%46,6181.63%205,3077.17%2,861,713
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Kerry won 6 of 9 congressional districts. Both candidates won a district held by the other party.[10]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 42% 56% Jay Inslee
2nd 47% 51% Rick Larsen
3rd 50% 48% Brian Baird
4th 63% 35% Doc Hastings
5th 57% 41% George Nethercutt
Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th 45% 53% Norman D. Dicks
7th 19% 79% Jim McDermott
8th 48% 51% Jennifer Dunn
Dave Reichert
9th 46% 53% Adam Smith

Electors

Technically the voters of Washington cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Washington is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:

  1. David Peterson
  2. Mary Ervin
  3. Valeria Ogden
  4. Patsy Whitefoot
  5. Larry Armstrong
  6. Ken Bumgarner
  7. Richard Kelley
  8. Sarah Chandler
  9. Greg Markley
  10. Alan Johanson
  11. Mary Crosby

See also

References

  1. ↑ Secretary of State: Kim Wyman. "Voter Turnout by Election". www.sos.wa.gov. Retrieved May 25, 2020.
  2. ↑ Levien, Andrea (October 4, 2012). "How New Mexico Lost Its Swing". FairVote. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  3. ↑ Members DC Political Report
  4. ↑ "2004 Presidential Election Polls. Washington Polls". US Election Atlas.
  5. ↑ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
  6. ↑ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
  7. ↑ "America votes 2004: Candidate tracker". CNN. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  8. ↑ "America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys". CNN. Archived from the original on April 22, 2021. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  9. ↑ "Election 2004: Exit polls". Cnn.com. April 13, 1970. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  10. ↑ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
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