2016 United States presidential election in Oregon
November 8, 2016
Turnout70.26% (eligible voters) Increase[1][2]
 
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state New York New York
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 1,002,106 782,403
Percentage 50.07% 39.09%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county with size showing number of votes
Treemap of the popular vote by county

The 2016 United States presidential election in Oregon was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Oregon has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

The Democratic presidential candidate has won Oregon in every election since 1988. Clinton continued this tradition, carrying the state with 50% of the vote, a slightly reduced margin from Barack Obama in 2012, but with a slightly higher raw vote total, becoming only the second presidential candidate to win more than a million votes in the process. Trump received 39% of the vote, a smaller proportion of the vote compared to that of Mitt Romney in 2012. However, he did achieve a notable feat in carrying Columbia County, becoming the first Republican to do so since Herbert Hoover in 1928.[4] In addition, this was also the first presidential election since 1976 in which Clackamas County backed the losing candidate, with Trump becoming the first Republican ever to win the White House without carrying the county.

Primaries and Caucuses

Oregon held its presidential primaries on May 17, 2016.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Two candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

The 74 delegates from Oregon were allocated in this way. 41 delegates were allocated based on the popular vote in each congressional district with district 2 split (district 2 was split because of its size with district 2a including the northern part of the district and 2b containing the southern part of the district). Another 20 delegates were allocated proportionally based on the statewide popular vote. The state also had 13 super delegates.[5]

Oregon Democratic primary, May 17, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 360,829 56.24% 36 3 39
Hillary Clinton 269,846 42.06% 25 7 32
Misc. 10,920 1.70% 0 0 0
(available) — 0 3 3
Total 641,595 100% 61 13 74
Source: The Green Papers, Oregon Secretary of State - Official Election Results

Republican primary

Six candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

The 28 delegates from Oregon were allocated proportionally based on the statewide popular vote.[6]

Oregon Republican primary, May 17, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 252,748 64.16% 18 0 18
Ted Cruz (withdrawn) 65,513 16.63% 5 0 5
John Kasich (withdrawn) 62,248 15.80% 5 0 5
Write-in 13,411 3.40% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 393,920 100.00% 28 0 28
Source: The Green Papers

Green primary

This state's Green Party held its presidential preference vote on May 21.

On May 22, it was announced that Jill Stein had won the preference vote.[7]

Oregon Green Party presidential convention, April 17, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Jill Stein - - 6
Sedinam Kinamo Christin Moyowasifza Curry - - 1
Uncommitted - - 1
Total - - 8

Libertarian primary

The Oregon primary was completed on May 27, 2016, the last day to receive mail-in ballots.

Oregon Libertarian presidential primary, May 27, 2016[8][9]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Gary Johnson 422 57%
John McAfee 105 14%
Merry Susan Nehls 34 5%
Austin Petersen (write-in) 25 3%
Darryl Perry 21 3%
Keenan Dunham 18 2%
Derrick Michael Reid 10 1%
Rhett Smith 6 1%
NOTA (write-in) 2 0%
Other write-ins 91 12%
Total 742 100%

Independent Party of Oregon primary

The Independent Party held a primary election on July 18. The party's ballot included Bernie Sanders (D), Hillary Clinton (D), Donald Trump (R), Ted Cruz (R), John Kasich (R), Gary Johnson (L), Jill Stein (G) and a "none of these candidates" choice.[10] Bernie Sanders won the primary election with 31.5% of the vote, narrowly defeating Donald Trump's 30.08%. Hillary Clinton came in third, with 24.02% of the vote. Members were allowed to select one or more candidates.[11]

Independent Party Presidential Ballot, July 18, 2016
CandidatePartyPercentage
Bernie Sanders Democrat 31.5%
Donald TrumpRepublican30.08%
Hillary ClintonDemocrat24.02%
None of the aboveN/A9.17%
Gary JohnsonLibertarian16.07%
Jill SteinGreen9.49%
Ted CruzRepublican5.68%
John KasichRepublican12.27%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[12] Safe D November 6, 2016
CNN[13] Safe D November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[14] Safe D November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[15] Safe D November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[16] Safe D November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Safe D November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[18] Lean D November 8, 2016
Fox News[19] Safe D November 7, 2016

Voting History

Besides Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964, the Republican party's candidate won Oregon in every year from 1948 through 1984. Since then, however, the Democratic candidate has carried the state in every election, including a narrow victory in the 2000 election. The last statewide election won by a Republican candidate was in the 2002 Senate election, all statewide elected officials as of election day were Democrats, and Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 12.09% in the 2012 election. Generally, Eastern Oregon is more conservative, while Western Oregon is more liberal.

Polling

Democrat Hillary Clinton won every pre-election poll conducted in the state except one and led by margins of 7 to 13 points in most polls. The average of the final 3 polls showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump 44% to 36%.[20]

Results

2016 U.S. presidential election in Oregon[21]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hillary Clinton 1,002,106 50.07%
Republican Donald Trump 782,403 39.09%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 94,231 4.71%
Pacific Green Party/Progressive Jill Stein 50,002 2.50%
write-ins 72,594 3.63%
Total votes 2,001,336 100.00%

Hillary Clinton carried the state, lengthening the Democratic streak in Oregon to 8 straight contests.

Results by county

County Hillary Clinton
Democratic		 Donald Trump
Republican		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total votes cast
#  % #  % #  % #  %
Baker 1,797 20.47% 6,218 70.83% 764 8.70% -4,421 -50.36% 8,779
Benton 29,193 59.88% 13,445 27.58% 6,115 12.54% 15,748 32.30% 48,753
Clackamas 102,095 47.70% 88,392 41.30% 23,552 11.00% 20,703 6.40% 214,039
Clatsop 9,252 47.05% 8,138 41.39% 2,274 11.56% 1,114 5.66% 19,664
Columbia 10,167 38.20% 13,217 49.65% 3,234 12.15% -3,050 -11.45% 26,618
Coos 10,448 33.37% 17,865 57.05% 3,000 9.58% -7,417 -23.68% 31,313
Crook 2,637 21.66% 8,511 69.92% 1,024 8.42% -5,874 -48.26% 12,172
Curry 4,300 34.10% 7,212 57.19% 1,099 8.71% -2,912 -23.09% 12,611
Deschutes 42,444 43.07% 45,692 46.36% 10,421 10.57% -3,248 -3.29% 98,557
Douglas 14,096 26.34% 34,582 64.61% 4,843 9.05% -20,486 -38.27% 53,521
Gilliam 239 23.45% 671 65.85% 109 10.70% -432 -42.40% 1,019
Grant 739 17.03% 3,210 73.96% 391 9.01% -2,471 -56.93% 4,340
Harney 683 17.19% 2,912 73.28% 379 9.53% -2,229 -56.09% 3,974
Hood River 6,510 59.67% 3,272 29.99% 1,128 10.34% 3,238 29.68% 10,910
Jackson 44,447 40.66% 53,870 49.27% 11,010 10.07% -9,423 -8.61% 109,327
Jefferson 2,980 31.50% 5,483 57.97% 996 10.53% -2,503 -26.47% 9,459
Josephine 13,453 30.19% 26,923 60.42% 4,184 9.39% -13,470 -30.23% 44,560
Klamath 7,210 23.63% 20,435 66.98% 2,862 9.39% -13,225 -43.35% 30,507
Lake 639 16.26% 3,022 76.90% 269 6.84% -2,383 -60.64% 3,930
Lane 102,753 53.53% 67,141 34.98% 22,056 11.49% 35,612 18.55% 191,950
Lincoln 12,501 49.50% 10,039 39.75% 2,716 10.75% 2,462 9.75% 25,256
Linn 17,995 30.65% 33,488 57.03% 7,236 12.32% -15,493 -26.38% 58,719
Malheur 2,246 21.52% 7,194 68.94% 995 9.54% -4,948 -47.42% 10,435
Marion 57,788 42.23% 63,377 46.31% 15,675 11.46% -5,589 -4.08% 136,840
Morrow 1,017 24.41% 2,721 65.30% 429 10.29% -1,704 -40.89% 4,167
Multnomah 292,561 73.30% 67,954 17.03% 38,588 9.67% 224,607 56.27% 399,103
Polk 16,420 40.75% 18,940 47.00% 4,935 12.25% -2,520 -6.25% 40,295
Sherman 202 19.86% 732 71.98% 83 8.16% -530 -52.12% 1,017
Tillamook 5,768 41.79% 6,538 47.37% 1,497 10.84% -770 -5.58% 13,803
Umatilla 7,673 27.80% 17,059 61.81% 2,865 10.39% -9,386 -34.01% 27,597
Union 3,249 25.05% 8,431 65.01% 1,288 9.94% -5,182 -39.96% 12,968
Wallowa 1,116 25.56% 2,848 65.23% 402 9.21% -1,732 -39.67% 4,366
Wasco 4,781 39.96% 5,833 48.75% 1,350 11.29% -1,052 -8.79% 11,964
Washington 153,251 56.92% 83,197 30.90% 32,784 12.18% 70,054 26.02% 269,232
Wheeler 155 18.95% 591 72.25% 72 8.80% -436 -53.30% 818
Yamhill 19,301 39.59% 23,250 47.69% 6,202 12.72% -3,949 -8.10% 48,753
Total1,002,10650.07%782,40339.09%216,82710.84%219,70310.98%2,001,336

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Clinton won 4 of 5 congressional districts.[22]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 33% 55% Suzanne Bonamici
2nd 55% 35% Greg Walden
3rd 22% 68% Earl Blumenauer
4th 46% 46.1% Peter DeFazio
5th 42% 46% Kurt Schrader

See also

References

  1. ↑ Oregon State Elections Division (2016). "[PARTICIPATION] STATISTICAL SUMMARY - NOVEMBER 8, 2016, GENERAL ELECTION". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
  2. ↑ Betsy Hammond (December 12, 2016). "Oregon voters shattered previous participation rates in November 2016". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
  3. ↑ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved December 24, 2020.
  4. ↑ Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
  5. ↑ "Oregon Democratic Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved February 25, 2017.
  6. ↑ "Oregon Republican Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved February 25, 2017.
  7. ↑ "Stein wins six Oregon delegates, Moyowasifza-Curry one – Green Party Watch". Retrieved June 18, 2016.
  8. ↑ "2016 Election Rules". The Libertarian Party of Oregon. Archived from the original on 27 March 2016. Retrieved 19 March 2016.
  9. ↑ "Oregon Libertarian Primary Raw Results". Independent Political Report. June 8, 2016. Retrieved June 8, 2016.
  10. ↑ "Independent Party of Oregon". Retrieved July 23, 2016.
  11. ↑ "2016 IPO PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT & MEMBER SURVEY RESULTS (UNOFFICIAL)" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on August 4, 2016. Retrieved July 31, 2016.
  12. ↑ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  13. ↑ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  14. ↑ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  15. ↑ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  16. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  17. ↑ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  18. ↑ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  19. ↑ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  20. ↑ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Oregon: Trump vs. Clinton".
  21. ↑ "November 8, 2016, General Election Abstract of Votes". Oregon Secretary of State. Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved December 9, 2016.
  22. ↑ David Nir. "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2016, 2012, and 2008". The Daily Kos. Retrieved September 30, 2020.
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