2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Mark Kelly Martha McSally
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,716,467 1,637,661
Percentage 51.16% 48.81%
Kelly:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
McSally:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80-90%      >90%
Tie:      50%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Martha McSally
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Mark Kelly
Democratic

The 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona was held on November 3, 2020, following the death in office of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John McCain on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat until a special election winner could be sworn in.[1][2] On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign on December 31, 2018.[3]

On December 18, 2018, Ducey announced that outgoing U.S. Representative Martha McSally would be appointed to fill the seat following Kyl's resignation.[4] McSally was sworn in as the state's junior U.S. Senator on January 3, 2019, less than two months after she was defeated by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema for Arizona's Class 1 U.S. Senate seat.[5] McSally ran to complete the term, defeating skincare executive Daniel McCarthy in the Republican primary. She faced former astronaut Mark Kelly,[6] who ran uncontested in the Democratic primary. Primary elections took place on August 4, 2020.[7]

Once a reliably Republican state, Arizona trended more purple in the late 2010s. Kelly significantly outraised McSally and led by about 5% in the average poll leading up to Election Day.

Kelly defeated McSally by a margin of 2.4% on election night, thereby flipping the seat Democratic. As a result, he outperformed Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election, who defeated President Donald Trump by 0.3%, but underperformed his polling average. Kelly became the first Democrat to win the Class 3 Senate seat since Carl Hayden won his last term in 1962.[8] This also marked the first time since the 82nd Congress preceding the 1952 election that Democrats held both Senate seats in Arizona.

Kelly was sworn in on December 2, 2020.

Interim appointments

Appointees

Potential candidates not appointed

Republican primary

Incumbent McSally faced one challenger: Daniel McCarthy, a skincare company executive. Upon his respective announcements, McCarthy's independent wealth was expected to set up a bruising and expensive primary campaign, however, McSally won the primary in a landslide.[16]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Sean Lyons (as a write-in candidate)[19]
  • Daniel McCarthy, skincare company executive[20]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Martha McSally
U.S. presidents
State officials
Individuals
Organizations

Primary results

Results by county:
  McSally—80–90%
  McSally—70–80%
  McSally—60–70%
Republican primary results[48]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Martha McSally (incumbent) 551,119 75.2%
Republican Daniel McCarthy 181,551 24.8%
Republican Sean Lyons (write-in) 210 nil
Total votes 732,880 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Bo "Heir Archy" Garcia (as a write-in candidate)[19]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Mark Kelly (D)
U.S. presidents
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Individuals
Organizations

Primary results

Democratic primary results[48]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Kelly 665,620 99.9%
Democratic Bo Garcia (write-in) 451 0.1%
Total votes 666,071 100.0%

Libertarian primary

Neither one of the write-in candidates received enough votes to secure the Libertarian nomination in the general election.

Write-in candidates

Eliminated in primary

Primary results

Libertarian primary results[48]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Barry Hess (write-in) 329 76.5%
Libertarian Alan White (write-in) 101 23.5%
Total votes 430 100.0%

Other candidates

General election write-in candidates

Declared

Republican
Democratic
Other
  • Christopher Beckett, veteran (Independent)[81]
  • William "Will" Decker (Independent)[81]
  • Matthew "Doc" Dorchester (Libertarian)[81]
  • Nicholas N. Glenn, navy veteran and aerospace engineer (Independent Republican)[81]
  • Mathew Haupt (Independent)[81]
  • Benjamin Rodriguez (Independent)[81]
  • Joshua Rodriguez (Unity)[81]
  • Frank Saenz (Independent)[81]
  • Jim Stevens (Independent)[81]

Withdrawn

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[84] Lean D (flip) October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[85] Tilt D (flip) October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[86] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[87] Lean D (flip) October 30, 2020
Politico[88] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
RCP[89] Tossup October 23, 2020
DDHQ[90] Likely D (flip) November 3, 2020
538[91] Likely D (flip) November 2, 2020
Economist[92] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Martha McSally (R)
Federal officials
State officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Others
Mark Kelly (D)
Federal officials
Organizations
Unions
Newspapers
Others

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Mark Kelly Martha McSally Margin
270 to Win November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 49.8% 44.8% Kelly +5.0
Real Clear Politics November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 50.5% 44.8% Kelly +5.7
Average 50.2% 44.8% Kelly +5.4
Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Martha
McSally (R)		 Mark
Kelly (D)		 Other /
Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters October 27 – November 2, 2020 610 (LV) ± 4.5% 44% 53% 4%[lower-alpha 2]
Change Research/CNBC October 29 – November 1, 2020 409 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 51% 2%[lower-alpha 3]
NBC News/Marist October 29 – November 1, 2020 717 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 52% 2%[lower-alpha 4]
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 27 – November 1, 2020 333 (LV) ± 7.2% 45% 55% –
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 1,195 (LV) ± 2.8% 46% 54% 0%[lower-alpha 5]
Emerson College October 29–31, 2020 732 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 50% 2%[lower-alpha 6]
Morning Consult October 22–31, 2020 1,059 (LV) ± 3% 44% 48% –
Data Orbital Archived November 21, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 28–30, 2020 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 47% 7%[lower-alpha 7]
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 26–30, 2020 1,253 (LV) ± 3% 43% 50% 6%[lower-alpha 8]
Grand Canyon Battleground Poll October 25–30, 2020 910 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 46% 11%[lower-alpha 9]
CNN/SSRS Archived November 22, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 23–30, 2020 892 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 51% 5%[lower-alpha 10]
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports October 27–29, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 48% 9%[lower-alpha 11]
Gravis Marketing October 26–28, 2020 704 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 50% 6%[lower-alpha 12]
Ipsos/Reutuers October 21–27, 2020 714 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 51% 5%[lower-alpha 13]
Swayable October 23–26, 2020 286 (LV) ± 7.4% 44% 56% –
Justice Collaborative Project (D) Archived November 30, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 1] October 22–25, 2020 874 (LV) ± 3.1% 40% 50% 10%[lower-alpha 14]
OH Predictive Insights October 22–25, 2020 716 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 50% 4%[lower-alpha 15]
Univision/University of Houston/Latino
Decisions/North Star Opinion Research		 October 17–25, 2020 725 (RV) ± 3.6% 39% 51% 10%[lower-alpha 16]
Patinkin Research Strategies (D) October 21–24, 2020 729 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 53% 2%[lower-alpha 17]
Y2 Analytics October 15–24, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 51% –
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 2] October 19–22, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 47% 4%[lower-alpha 18]
Ipsos/Reuters October 14–21, 2020 658 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 51% 5%[lower-alpha 19]
Morning Consult October 11–20, 2020 1,066 (LV) ± 3% 44% 48% –
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports October 18–19, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 46% 10%[lower-alpha 20]
Change Research/CNBC October 16–19, 2020 232 (LV)[lower-alpha 21] – 43% 54% –
RMG Research Archived October 22, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 14–19, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 39%[lower-alpha 22] 49% 15%[lower-alpha 23]
37%[lower-alpha 24] 49% 15%[lower-alpha 23]
40%[lower-alpha 25] 44% 15%[lower-alpha 23]
Data Orbital Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 16–18, 2020 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 48% 10%[lower-alpha 26]
YouGov/CBS October 13–16, 2020 1,074 (LV) ± 4.1% 41% 52% 7%[lower-alpha 27]
Ipsos/Reuters October 7–14, 2020 667 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 52% 8%[lower-alpha 28]
Monmouth University October 9–13, 2020 502 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 52% 5%[lower-alpha 29]
502 (LV)[lower-alpha 30] 42% 52% –
502 (LV)[lower-alpha 31] 45% 51% –
Morning Consult October 2–11, 2020 1,144 (LV) ± 2.9% 41% 49% –
Trafalgar Group October 6–9, 2020 1,045 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 47% 7%[lower-alpha 32]
OH Predictive Insights October 4–8, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 50% 6%[lower-alpha 33]
Ipsos/Reuters September 29 – October 7, 2020 663 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 51% 8%[lower-alpha 34]
Latino Decisions (D)[upper-alpha 3] September 28 – October 6, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 47% 7%[lower-alpha 35]
Basswood Research (R)[upper-alpha 4] October 3–5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 47% 4%[lower-alpha 36]
Data Orbital Archived October 21, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 3–5, 2020 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 49% 7%[lower-alpha 37]
HighGround Inc. September 28 – October 5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 50% 7%[lower-alpha 38]
Change Research/CNBC October 2–4, 2020 296 (LV) – 43% 51% 6%[lower-alpha 39]
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 1–3, 2020 655 (LV) ± 4.2% 39% 50% 11%[lower-alpha 40]
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D) October 1–3, 2020 604 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 50% 5%[lower-alpha 41]
Targoz Market Research September 23 – October 2, 2020 1,045 (LV) ± nil 41% 51% 8%
Morning Consult September 22 – October 1, 2020 1,048 (LV) ± 3% 38%[lower-alpha 42] 51% 10%[lower-alpha 43]
Suffolk University September 26–30, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 40% 49% 11%[lower-alpha 44]
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 2] September 25–28, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 48% –
Data for Progress (D) September 23–28, 2020 808 (LV) ± 3.4% 42% 51% 7%[lower-alpha 35]
Morning Consult September 19–28, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 36% 53% 10%[lower-alpha 45]
Data For Progress[upper-alpha 5] September 15–22, 2020 481 (LV) ± 4.4% 38% 47% 15%[lower-alpha 46]
Change Research/CNBC September 18–20, 2020 262 (LV) – 43% 51% 6%[lower-alpha 47]
ABC News/Washington Post September 15–20, 2020 579 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 49% 3%[lower-alpha 48]
Morning Consult September 11–20, 2020 907 (LV) ± 3%[lower-alpha 49] 40% 49% –
Hart Research Associates (D)[upper-alpha 6] September 17–19, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 55% –
Ipsos/Reuters September 11–17, 2020 565 (LV) ± 4.7% 41% 50% 8%[lower-alpha 50]
Morning Consult September 8–17, 2020 900 (LV)[lower-alpha 21] ± (2% – 4%) 41%[lower-alpha 49] 48% –
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 7] September 14–16, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 48% 6%[lower-alpha 12]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies September 12–16, 2020 855 (LV) ± 3.4% 35% 53% 13%[lower-alpha 51]
Monmouth University September 11–15, 2020 420 (RV) ± 4.8% 44% 50% 5%[lower-alpha 29]
420 (LV)[lower-alpha 30] 46% 50% 4%[lower-alpha 52]
420 (LV)[lower-alpha 31] 48% 49% 4%[lower-alpha 52]
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 10–15, 2020 653 (LV) ± 4.1% 42% 50% 8%[lower-alpha 53]
Morning Consult September 5–14, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 38% 50% 13%[lower-alpha 54]
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D) September 10–13, 2020 679 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 50% 5%[lower-alpha 41]
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report August 29 – September 13, 2020 1,298 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 44% 20%[lower-alpha 55]
Gravis Marketing September 10–11, 2020 684 (LV) ± 3.8% 43% 48% 9%[lower-alpha 56]
YouGov/CBS September 9–11, 2020 1,106 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 49% 9%[lower-alpha 57]
OH Predictive Insights September 8–10, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 52% 6%[lower-alpha 58]
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group[upper-alpha 8] August 28 – September 8, 2020 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 45% 48% 7%[lower-alpha 59]
Change Research/CNBC September 4–6, 2020 470 (LV) ± 4.6% 45% 51% 4%[lower-alpha 60]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 30 – September 4, 2020 830 (LV) ± 3.4% 38% 53% 8%[lower-alpha 61]
Morning Consult August 26 – September 4, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 39% 50% 11%[lower-alpha 62]
FOX News August 29 – September 1, 2020 772 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 56% 5%[lower-alpha 63]
853 (RV) ± 3.0% 38% 55% 6%[lower-alpha 64]
Basswood Research (R)[upper-alpha 4] August 29–31, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 48% 4%[lower-alpha 36]
Morning Consult August 16–25, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 35% 53% 13%[lower-alpha 54]
Redfield and Wilton Strategies August 16–18, 2020 856 (LV) ± 3.4% 34% 53% 12%[lower-alpha 65]
Morning Consult August 6–15, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 43% 46% 11%[lower-alpha 62]
Emerson College August 8–10, 2020 661 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 52% 7%[lower-alpha 35]
Change Research/CNBC August 7–9, 2020 428 (LV) ± 4.6% 43% 49% 8%[lower-alpha 66]
Morning Consult July 27 – August 5, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 38% 49% 13%[lower-alpha 67]
OH Predictive Insights August 3–4, 2020 603 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 48% 9%[lower-alpha 68]
OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 9] August 2–4, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 48% 4%[lower-alpha 36]
Data for Progress July 24 – August 2, 2020 1,215 (LV) ± 3.2% 40% 50% 10%[lower-alpha 69]
Change Research/CNBC July 24–26, 2020 365 (LV) ± 4.8% 45% 47% 8%
Morning Consult July 17–26, 2020 908 (LV) ± 3.0% 36%[lower-alpha 42] 52% 13%
CNN/SSRS July 18–24, 2020 873 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 50% 7%[lower-alpha 70]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies July 19–23, 2020 858 (LV) ± 3.2% 35% 53% 13%[lower-alpha 71]
Morning Consult July 14–23, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 39% 49% 12%[lower-alpha 72]
Public Policy Polling July 21–22, 2020 816 (V) ± 3.2% 42% 51% 7%[lower-alpha 35]
NBC News/Marist July 14–22, 2020 826 (RV) ± 4.1% 41% 53% 6%[lower-alpha 73]
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 10] July 11–16, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 41% 48% 11%[lower-alpha 74]
Change Research/CNBC July 10–12, 2020 345 (LV) ± 4.6% 45% 52% 3%[lower-alpha 75]
CBS News/YouGov July 7–10, 2020 1,087 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 46% 12%[lower-alpha 76]
OH Predictive Insights July 6–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 52% 6%[lower-alpha 77]
Data Orbital June 27–29, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 50% 7%[lower-alpha 78]
Gravis Marketing (R)[upper-alpha 11] June 27, 2020 527 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 42% 12%[lower-alpha 79]
Change Research/CNBC June 26–28, 2020 311 (LV)[lower-alpha 21] ± 5.8% 44% 53% 3%[lower-alpha 80]
Global Strategy Group (D) June 19–24, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 49% 9%
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 12] June 20–23, 2020 946 (LV) ± 3.2% 42% 50% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies June 14–17, 2020 865 (LV) ± 3.3% 34% 49% 17%[lower-alpha 81]
NYT Upshot/Siena College June 8–16, 2020 650 (RV) ± 4.3% 38% 47% 16%[lower-alpha 82]
Civiqs/Daily Kos June 13–15, 2020 1,368 (RV) ± 2.9% 42% 51% 7%[lower-alpha 83]
FOX News May 30 – June 2, 2020 1,002 (RV) ± 3.9% 37% 50% 13%[lower-alpha 84]
HighGround Public Affairs Archived June 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine May 18–22, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 41% 51% 8%[lower-alpha 85]
OH Predictive Insights May 9–11, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 51% 10%[lower-alpha 14]
OH Predictive Insights April 7–8, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 51% 8%[lower-alpha 86]
NBC News/Marist March 10–15, 2020 2,523 (RV) ± 2.7% 45% 48% 7%
Monmouth University March 11–14, 2020 847 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 50% 6%
Univision/Arizona State University March 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 48% 16%
OH Predictive Insights Archived September 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine March 3–4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 49% 9%[lower-alpha 68]
Public Policy Polling March 2–3, 2020 666 (V) ± 3.8% 42% 47% 12%
HighGround Public Affairs Archived February 19, 2020, at the Wayback Machine February 7–9, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 39% 46% 15%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 7] January 22–24, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 45% 8%
Public Policy Polling January 2–4, 2020 760 (V) ± 3.6% 42% 46% 12%
OH Predictive Insights December 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 47% 9%[lower-alpha 87]
Emerson College October 25–28, 2019 904 (RV) ± 3.2% 45% 46% 9%
Change Research (D) September 27–28, 2019 856 (RV) ± 3.3% 45% 47% 8%
Bendixen & Amandi International September 9–12, 2019 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 42% 42% 16%
OH Predictive Insights August 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 46% 13%[lower-alpha 88]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 44% 11%[lower-alpha 89]
OH Predictive Insights Archived May 13, 2019, at the Wayback Machine May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 44% 11%[lower-alpha 90]
OH Predictive Insights February 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 44% 10%[lower-alpha 14]
Hypothetical polling
with Daniel McCarthy and Mark Kelly
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Daniel
McCarthy (R)		 Mark
Kelly (D)		 Other /
Undecided
Change Research[upper-alpha 12] June 20–23, 2020 946 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 50% 6%
with Ruben Gallego
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Martha
McSally (R)		 Ruben
Gallego (D)		 Other /
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights February 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 41% 10%[lower-alpha 14]
on whether McSally deserves to be re-elected
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Yes No Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 45% 16%[lower-alpha 91]
Public Policy Polling January 24–25, 2019 682 (V) – 40% 54% 6%
with generic Republican and generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Other /
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights October 4–8, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 45% 10%[lower-alpha 92]
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart September 23 – October 2, 2020 1,045 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 42% 14%[lower-alpha 93]
Data For Progress[upper-alpha 13] September 15–22, 2020 481 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 42% 15%[lower-alpha 46]
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 10–15, 2020 653 (LV) ± 4.1% 44% 50% 6%[lower-alpha 94]
Emerson College August 8–10, 2020 661 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 46% 13%[lower-alpha 95]
OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 9] August 2–4, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 43% 14%[lower-alpha 96]
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 44% 12%[lower-alpha 97]
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 7] Jan 22–24, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 45% 6%[lower-alpha 98]
OH Predictive Insights December 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 44% 11%[lower-alpha 99]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 43% 14%[lower-alpha 100]
OH Predictive Insights Archived September 20, 2020, at the Wayback Machine February 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 39% 17%[lower-alpha 101]

Results

2020 United States Senate Special election in Arizona[108]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Mark Kelly 1,716,467 51.16% +10.41%
Republican Martha McSally (incumbent) 1,637,661 48.81% −4.90%
Write-in 1,169 0.03% -0.03%
Total votes 3,355,297 100.0%
Democratic gain from Republican
By county
County Mark Kelly
Democratic		 Martha McSally
Republican		 Write-in Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # %
Apache 24,050 68.47 11,052 31.47 22 0.06 12,998 37.01 35,124
Cochise 24,843 41.35 35,214 58.61 29 0.05 -10,371 -17.26 60,086
Coconino 45,561 62.54 27,255 37.41 29 0.04 18,306 25.13 72,845
Gila 9,648 35.02 17,889 64.94 11 0.04 -8,241 -29.91 27,548
Graham 4,506 30.42 10,303 69.55 4 0.03 -5,797 -39.13 14,813
Greenlee 1,403 38.65 2,225 61.29 2 0.06 -822 -22.66 3,630
La Paz 2,492 34.00 4,835 65.97 2 0.03 -2,343 -31.97 7,329
Maricopa 1,064,396 51.94 984,203 48.03 698 0.03 80,193 3.91 2,049,297
Mohave 27,414 26.66 75,359 73.29 49 0.05 -47,945 -46.63 102,822
Navajo 24,396 47.49 26,952 52.47 21 0.04 -2,556 -4.98 51,369
Pima 309,142 59.84 207,317 40.13 152 0.03 101,825 19.71 516,611
Pinal 79,114 43.18 104,048 56.78 76 0.04 -24,934 -13.61 183,238
Santa Cruz 13,689 70.65 5,685 29.34 2 0.01 8,004 41.31 19,376
Yavapai 51,852 36.49 90,180 63.47 57 0.04 -38,328 -26.97 142,089
Yuma 33,961 49.13 35,144 50.84 15 0.02 -1,183 -1.71 69,120
Totals 1,716,467 51.16 1,637,661 48.81 1,189 0.03 78,826 2.35 3,355,317
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[109]

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 1%
  3. ↑ "Refused" and Undecided with 1%; Did not vote with 0%
  4. ↑ "Other" and Undecided with 1%
  5. ↑ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  6. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  7. ↑ "Refused" with 4%; "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  8. ↑ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  9. ↑ "Some other" with 3.5%; "Other" with 7.5%; Undecided with 2%
  10. ↑ "None of these" and Undecided with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  11. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 5%
  12. 1 2 Undecided with 6%
  13. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  14. 1 2 3 4 Undecided with 10%
  15. ↑ "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  16. ↑ "Someone else" and would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  17. ↑ Undecided with 2%
  18. ↑ "Other" and "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  19. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
  20. ↑ "Some other candidate" and Undecided with 5%
  21. 1 2 3 Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  22. ↑ Standard VI response
  23. 1 2 3 "Some other candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 9%
  24. ↑ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  25. ↑ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  26. ↑ "Refused" with 3%; "Other" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
  27. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
  28. ↑ "Some other candidate" and Undecided with 4%; would not vote with 0%
  29. 1 2 "No one" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  30. 1 2 With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  31. 1 2 With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  32. ↑ "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  33. ↑ "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 5%
  34. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Prefer not to answer" with 4%
  35. 1 2 3 4 Undecided with 7%
  36. 1 2 3 Undecided with 4%
  37. ↑ "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  38. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  39. ↑ Would not vote and Undecided with 3%
  40. ↑ Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
  41. 1 2 Undecided with 5%
  42. 1 2 Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  43. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 6%
  44. ↑ "Other" and "Refused" with 2%; Undecided with 7%
  45. ↑ "Someone else" and Undecided with 5%
  46. 1 2 Undecided with 15%
  47. ↑ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  48. ↑ "Neither" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; "other" with no voters; Undecided with 1%
  49. 1 2 Overlapping sample with the previous and subsequent Morning Consult polls, but more information available regarding sample size
  50. ↑ "Not sure/prefer not to answer" with 4%; "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  51. ↑ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 11%
  52. 1 2 "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  53. ↑ Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 7%
  54. 1 2 "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 9%
  55. ↑ "Neither/Another Party" with 4%; "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 16%
  56. ↑ Undecided with 9%
  57. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  58. ↑ "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  59. ↑ "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  60. ↑ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  61. ↑ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  62. 1 2 "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 7%
  63. ↑ "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  64. ↑ "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  65. ↑ "Third party/write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  66. ↑ Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  67. ↑ "Someone else" with 5%; Undecided with 8%
  68. 1 2 "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
  69. ↑ "No one" with 10%
  70. ↑ "None of the above/neither" with 3%; "other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  71. ↑ "Third party/write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
  72. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 8%
  73. ↑ "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  74. ↑ "Another candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 5%
  75. ↑ Undecided with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  76. ↑ Undecided with 9%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  77. ↑ Undecided with 5%; "Refused" with 1%
  78. ↑ Undecided with 5.2%; "Other" with 1.8%; "refused" with 0.4%
  79. ↑ Undecided with 12%
  80. ↑ Undecided with 3%; "Would not vote" with 0%
  81. ↑ Undecided with 14%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  82. ↑ Undecided with 14%; "Another candidate" and would not vote with 1%
  83. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%; unsure with 3%
  84. ↑ Undecided with 8%; "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  85. ↑ "Undecided/refused" with 5.8%; "some other candidate" with 1.8%
  86. ↑ "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  87. ↑ "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 9%
  88. ↑ "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 13%
  89. ↑ Undecided with 9%; "Would not vote/would not vote for US Senate" with 2%
  90. ↑ "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  91. ↑ Undecided with 14%, refused with 2%
  92. ↑ "Other" with 6%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  93. ↑ "Another candidate" with 5%; Undecided with 9%
  94. ↑ "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  95. ↑ Undecided with 13%
  96. ↑ Undecided with 14%
  97. ↑ "Neither candidate or other candidate" with 12%
  98. ↑ "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 6%
  99. ↑ "Other" with 5%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  100. ↑ "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 14%
  101. ↑ "Other" with 10%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ The Justice Collaborative Project is an affiliate of the Tides Centre, a liberal fiscal sponsorship provider
  2. 1 2 The American Greatness PAC, this poll's sponsor, is pro-Trump.
  3. ↑ This poll's sponsor, Democrats for Education Reform, exclusively supports Democratic candidates.
  4. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the American Action Network, a conservative advocacy group.
  5. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  6. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
  7. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the McSally campaign
  8. ↑ Poll sponsored by AARP.
  9. 1 2 Heritage Action is the sister organization of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  10. ↑ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  11. ↑ Polling was sponsored by OANN.
  12. 1 2 This poll's sponsor, 314 Action, had endorsed Kelly prior to the sampling period
  13. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.

References

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