| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
Ernst: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Greenfield: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
|
Elections in Iowa |
---|
The 2020 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primaries were held on June 2.[1]
Most experts and pollsters considered this race and the concurrent presidential race as a tossup due to incumbent president Donald Trump's low approval ratings and Ernst's own popularity dropping in polls, partly due to a viral moment in a debate where she did not know the price of corn.[2] Despite this, Ernst was reelected by a larger-than-expected 6.6 points, while Trump simultaneously won the state with a similarly unexpected margin of victory. Ernst carried an overwhelming majority of the state's counties including many rural ones, while Greenfield carried only eight counties: Polk, Linn, Scott, Johnson, Black Hawk, Story, Cerro Gordo and Jefferson.[3]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Joni Ernst, incumbent U.S. senator[4][5][6]
Withdrawn
Endorsements
- Organizations
Result
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Joni Ernst (incumbent) | 226,589 | 98.64% | |
Republican | Write-In | 3,132 | 1.36% | |
Total votes | 229,721 | 100.00% |
Democratic primary
On June 2, 2020, Theresa Greenfield won the Democratic primary with 47.71% of the vote, defeating three other major candidates, including Michael Franken, a retired U.S. Navy admiral and former aide to U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy.[11][12][13][14][15]
Candidates
Nominee
- Theresa Greenfield, businesswoman, candidate for Iowa's 3rd congressional district in 2018[16]
Eliminated in primary
- Michael Franken, retired U.S. Navy admiral and former aide to U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy[17]
- Kimberly Graham, child welfare attorney[18][19]
- Eddie Mauro, businessman, teacher, candidate for Iowa's 3rd congressional district in 2018[20]
Withdrawn
Declined
- Cindy Axne, incumbent U.S. representative for Iowa's 3rd congressional district (running for reelection, endorsed Greenfield)[24]
- Chet Culver, former governor of Iowa[25]
- Deirdre DeJear, nominee for Secretary of State of Iowa in 2018[26]
- Abby Finkenauer, incumbent U.S. representative for Iowa's 1st congressional district (running for reelection, endorsed Greenfield)[27][28]
- Amber Gustafson, candidate for the Iowa Senate in 2018 (endorsed Greenfield)[29]
- Rita Hart, former state senator and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Iowa in 2018 (running in Iowa's 2nd congressional district)[6][30][31]
- Rob Hogg, state senator[6][30]
- Liz Mathis, state senator[32]
- Rob Sand, Iowa State Auditor[6][33]
- J.D. Scholten, nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2018 (running in Iowa's 4th congressional district)[34]
- Tom Vilsack, former governor of Iowa and former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture[35]
- Stacey Walker, Linn County supervisor (endorsed Graham)[36][37]
- Steve Warnstadt, former state senator and intelligence officer in the Iowa Army National Guard[6][30]
Debates
Host
network |
Date | Link(s) | Participants | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Theresa
Greenfield |
Michael
T. Franken |
Kimberly
Graham |
Eddie
Mauro | |||
Iowa PBS | May 18, 2020 | [38] | Present | Present | Present | Present |
Endorsements
- Federal officials
- Chuck Hagel, former U.S. Secretary of Defense (2013–2015) and U.S. Senator from Nebraska (1997–2009)[39] (Republican)
- Individuals
- Paula Jean Swearengin, Democratic nominee in 2020 West Virginia U.S. Senate race[40]
- Organizations
- Association of Professional Flight Attendants[40]
- Brand New Congress[41]
- Sunrise Movement Cedar Rapids Chapter[42]
- Sunrise Movement Dubuque Chapter[40]
- Sunrise Movement University of Iowa Chapter[40]
- Federal officials
- Sherrod Brown, U.S. senator from Ohio[43]
- Abby Finkenauer, U.S. representative (IA-01)[28]
- Gabby Giffords, former U.S. representative (AZ-08) (2007–2012)[44]
- Dave Loebsack, U.S. representative (IA-02)[45]
- Barack Obama, former U.S. President[46]
- State officials
- Marti Anderson, state representative[44]
- Tony Bisignano, state senator[44]
- Joseph Bolkcom, state senator[44]
- Robert Dvorsky, former state senator (1995–2019) and state representative (1987–1995)[44]
- Ro Foege, former state representative (1996–2008)[44]
- John Forbes, state representative[44]
- Bruce Hunter, state representative[44]
- Pam Jochum, state senator and former Iowa Senate president (2013–2017)[44]
- Bob Kressig, state representative[44]
- Monica Kurth, state representative[44]
- Jim Lykam, state senator[44]
- Mary Mascher, state representative[44]
- Jo Oldson, state representative[44]
- Sally Pederson, former lieutenant governor (1997–2007)[44]
- Janet Petersen, state senator and Senate Minority Leader[44]
- Amanda Ragan, state senator[44]
- Joe Riding, former state representative (2013–2015)[44]
- Sharon Steckman, state representative[44]
- Kristin Sunde, state representative[44]
- Zach Wahls, state senator[44]
- Cindy Winckler, state representative[44]
- Individuals
- Jon Bauman, Social Security Works PAC president and former Sha Na Na member (1970–1983)[44]
- Andy McGuire, former Iowa Democratic Party chair[44]
- Christie Vilsack, former Iowa First Lady (1997–2007)[44]
- Unions
- American Federation of Government Employees[44]
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 61[44]
- International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers Local 89, 67, 111, 577, 21[44]
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Iowa State Conference[44]
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 238[44]
- United Food and Commercial Workers Local 431[44]
- Organizations
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Michael Franken |
Kimberly Graham |
Theresa Greenfield |
Eddie Mauro |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | May 5–6, 2020 | 849 (V) | – | 12% | 4% | 43% | 4% | 36% |
Emerson College | October 13–16, 2019 | 317 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 6% | 4% | 11% | 6% | 74% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Theresa Greenfield | 132,001 | 47.71% | |
Democratic | Michael T. Franken | 68,851 | 24.88% | |
Democratic | Kimberly Graham | 41,554 | 15.02% | |
Democratic | Eddie Mauro | 30,400 | 10.99% | |
Democratic | Cal Woods (withdrawn) | 3,372 | 1.21% | |
Democratic | Write-In | 514 | 0.19% | |
Total votes | 276,692 | 100.00% |
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
Nominee
- Rick Stewart, Libertarian nominee for the 2018 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election and independent candidate for the 2014 United States Senate election in Iowa[56]
Independents
Declared
- Suzanne Herzog, economist and former ER nurse[57]
General election
Major media described the campaign as one of the most likely to decide control of the Senate after the 2020 election.[58][59] Polls conducted after the primary showed a close contest between Greenfield and Ernst, with neither candidate leading by more than 4 points.[60][61][62][63]
Through June 2020, Greenfield had raised $11.5 million, compared to $14.6 million for Ernst but by September, Greenfield had pulled ahead, raising $40.0 million compared to $21.6 million for Ernst.[64][65][66] The race was expected to be the most expensive in the state's history,[67] and the second most expensive Senate race in the United States, after the 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina, where Cal Cunningham challenged Thom Tillis.[68]
Debate
Host | Date & time | Link(s) | Participants | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Joni Ernst (R) | Theresa Greenfield (D) | |||
Iowa Press Debates | September 28, 2020 | [69] | Present | Present |
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[70] | Tossup | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections[71] | Tossup | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[72] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Politico[73] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos[74] | Tossup | October 30, 2020 |
RCP[75] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ[76] | Tossup | November 3, 2020 |
538[77] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
Economist[78] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
Endorsements
- Organizations
- Federal officials
- Joe Biden, 47th vice president of the United States, 2020 Democratic nominee for president
- Sherrod Brown, U.S. senator from Ohio[43]
- Abby Finkenauer, U.S. representative (IA-01)[28]
- Gabby Giffords, former U.S. representative (AZ-08)[44]
- Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. senator from New York[81]
- Dave Loebsack, U.S. representative (IA-02)[45]
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States[82]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts[83]
- State and local officials
- Marti Anderson, state representative[44]
- Tony Bisignano, state senator[44]
- Joseph Bolkcom, state senator[44]
- Robert Dvorsky, former state senator[44]
- Ro Foege, former state representative[44]
- John Forbes, state representative[44]
- Bruce Hunter, state representative[44]
- Pam Jochum, state senator and former Iowa Senate president (2013–2017) and state representative (1993–2009)[44]
- Bob Kressig, state representative[44]
- Monica Kurth, state representative[44]
- Jim Lykam, state senator[44]
- Mary Mascher, state representative[44]
- Jo Oldson, state representative[44]
- Sally Pederson, former lieutenant governor of Iowa[44]
- Janet Petersen, state senator and Senate Minority Leader[44]
- Amanda Ragan, state senator[44]
- Joe Riding, former state representative[44]
- Sharon Steckman, state representative[44]
- Kristin Sunde, state representative[44]
- Zach Wahls, state senator[44]
- Cindy Winckler, state representative[44]
- Individuals
- Jon Bauman, Social Security Works PAC president and former Sha Na Na member[44]
- Andy McGuire, former Iowa Democratic Party chair[44]
- Christie Vilsack, former Iowa First Lady (1999–2007)[44]
- Unions
- American Federation of Government Employees[44]
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 61[44]
- International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers Local 89, 67, 111, 577, 21[44]
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Iowa State Conference[44]
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 238[44]
- National Education Association[84]
- United Auto Workers[85]
- United Food and Commercial Workers Local 431[44]
- Newspapers
- Cedar Rapids Gazette[86]
- Des Moines Register[87]
- Dubuque Telegraph Herald[88]
- Iowa City Press-Citizen[89]
- Quad City Times[90]
- Organizations
- Brady Campaign[47]
- Center for Biological Diversity[91]
- Climate Hawks Vote[92]
- Council for a Livable World[93]
- Democracy for America[94]
- DSCC[48]
- EMILY's List[49]
- End Citizens United[50]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[95]
- Feminist Majority PAC[51]
- Giffords[52]
- J Street PAC[96]
- League of Conservation Voters[53]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[54]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[97]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[98]
- Population Connection[55]
Polling
Graphical summary
Aggregate polling
Theresa Greenfield vs. Joni Ernst | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Theresa Greenfield | Joni Ernst | Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 2] | Margin |
Real Clear Politics | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 45.8% | 47.2% | 7.0% | Ernst +1.4 |
270 to Win | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 46.6% |
47.0% |
6.4% | Ernst +0.4 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Theresa Greenfield (D) |
Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 1–2, 2020 | 871 (V) | – | 47% | 48% | 5% |
Change Research | October 29 – November 1, 2020 | 1,084 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 48% | 4%[lower-alpha 3] |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | October 29 – November 1, 2020 | 853 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 50% | 2%[lower-alpha 4] |
Data for Progress | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 49% | 6%[lower-alpha 5] |
Emerson College | October 29–31, 2020 | 604 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 48%[lower-alpha 6] | 51% | 2%[lower-alpha 7] |
InsiderAdvantage (R) Archived November 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 1] | October 30, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 45% | 4%[lower-alpha 8] |
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register | October 26–29, 2020 | 814 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 42% | 11%[lower-alpha 9] |
Quinnipiac University | October 23–27, 2020 | 1,225 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 46% | 1%[lower-alpha 10] |
RABA Research | October 21–24, 2020 | 693 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 51% | – |
Emerson College | October 19–21, 2020 | 435 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 51%[lower-alpha 6] | 46% | 3%[lower-alpha 11] |
RMG Research Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | October 15–21, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43%[lower-alpha 12] | 46% | 10%[lower-alpha 13] |
41%[lower-alpha 14] | 48% | 10%[lower-alpha 13] | ||||
45%[lower-alpha 15] | 45% | 10%[lower-alpha 13] | ||||
Siena College/NYT Upshot | October 18–20, 2020 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 44% | 12%[lower-alpha 16] |
Insider Advantage (R) Archived October 21, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 1] | October 18–19, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 43% | 48% | 8%[lower-alpha 17] |
Monmouth University | October 15–19, 2020 | 501 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 47% | 5%[lower-alpha 18] |
501 (LV)[lower-alpha 19] | 47% | 49% | – | |||
501 (LV)[lower-alpha 20] | 45% | 51% | – | |||
Data for Progress (D) | October 8–11, 2020 | 822 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 47% | 10%[lower-alpha 21] |
YouGov/CBS | October 6–9, 2020 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 47% | 10%[lower-alpha 22] |
Opinion Insight (R)[upper-alpha 2] | October 5–8, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 47%[lower-alpha 6] | 45% | 8%[lower-alpha 23] |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | October 3–6, 2020 | 756 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 49% | 6%[lower-alpha 24] |
Quinnipiac University | October 1–5, 2020 | 1,205 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 50% | 5%[lower-alpha 10] |
Data for Progress (D) | September 23–28, 2020 | 743 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 42%[lower-alpha 12] | 44% | 14%[lower-alpha 25] |
45%[lower-alpha 26] | 46% | 9%[lower-alpha 27] | ||||
Hart Research Associates (D)[upper-alpha 3] | September 24–27, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 48% | – |
RABA Research | September 23–26, 2020 | 780 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 51% | – |
Monmouth University | September 18–22, 2020 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 47% | 5%[lower-alpha 28] |
402 (LV)[lower-alpha 19] | 46% | 49% | 5%[lower-alpha 29] | |||
402 (LV)[lower-alpha 20] | 47% | 48% | 5%[lower-alpha 29] | |||
Siena College/NYT Upshot | September 16–22, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.99% | 40% | 42% | 19%[lower-alpha 30] |
Selzer/Des Moines Register | September 14–17, 2020 | 658 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 45% | 12%[lower-alpha 31] |
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[upper-alpha 4] | August 30 – September 5, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 45% | 5%[lower-alpha 32] |
Opinion Insight (R)[upper-alpha 2] | August 30 – September 2, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 49%[lower-alpha 6] | 43% | 7%[lower-alpha 33] |
Public Policy Polling | August 13–14, 2020 | 729 (V) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 48% | 8%[lower-alpha 34] |
Monmouth University | July 30 – August 3, 2020 | 401 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 45% | 6%[lower-alpha 35] |
401 (LV)[lower-alpha 19] | 48% | 47% | 6%[lower-alpha 35] | |||
401 (LV)[lower-alpha 20] | 48% | 47% | 5%[lower-alpha 36] | |||
Data for Progress | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 45% | 11%[lower-alpha 37] |
RMG Research | July 27–30, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 36% | 40% | 24%[lower-alpha 38] |
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 5] | July 11–16, 2020 | 701 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 43% | 45% | 12%[lower-alpha 39] |
GQR Research (D)[upper-alpha 6] | June 23–28, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
Selzer/Des Moines Register | June 7–10, 2020 | 674 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | June 6–8, 2020 | 865 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 48% | 6% |
Public Policy Polling (D) Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 7] | June 3–4, 2020 | 963 (V) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
Public Policy Polling | April 30 – May 1, 2020 | 1,222 (V) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 42% | 14% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 6] | December 13–15, 2019 | 944 (V) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
Emerson College | October 13–16, 2019 | 888 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 40% | 14% |
Lake Research Partners (D)[upper-alpha 8] | April 24–29, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 56% | 34% | – |
- with Eddie Mauro
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Eddie Mauro (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RABA Research/Eddie Mauro[upper-alpha 8] | May 7–9, 2020 | 632 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 42% | – |
Lake Research Partners (D)[upper-alpha 8] | April 24–29, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 58%[lower-alpha 12] | 33% | – |
49%[lower-alpha 40] | 44% | – |
- with Joni Ernst and generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | April 29–30, 2019 | 780 (V) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 44% | – |
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 9] | June 30 – July 1, 2017 | 784 (V) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 41% | 12% |
- with Joni Ernst and Generic Opponent
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Generic Opponent |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. | March 2–5, 2020 | 667 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 31% | 3%[lower-alpha 41] | 26%[lower-alpha 42] |
- with generic Republican and generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lake Research Partners (D)[upper-alpha 8] | April 24–29, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 41% | – |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Joni Ernst (incumbent) | 864,997 | 51.74% | -0.36% | |
Democratic | Theresa Greenfield | 754,859 | 45.15% | +1.39% | |
Libertarian | Rick Stewart | 36,961 | 2.21% | +1.48% | |
Independent | Suzanne Herzog | 13,800 | 0.83% | N/A | |
Write-in | 1,211 | 0.07% | -0.03% | ||
Total votes | 1,671,828 | 100.0% | |||
Republican hold | |||||
By county | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
By congressional district | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
- 1 2 Poll sponsored by The Center for American Greatness, a pro-Trump organization.
- 1 2 Poll sponsored by The American Action Forum, which is a 501 organization which usually supports Republican candidates.
- ↑ Poll sponsored by The Human Rights Campaign, which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
- ↑ Poll sponsored by AARP.
- ↑ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
- 1 2 Poll sponsored by the End Citizens United, which has only supported Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United Supreme Court ruling.
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Emily's List, an organization that supports Democratic female candidates.
- 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by the Eddie Mauro campaign
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
- Voter samples
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ↑ Stewart (L) with 2%; "Don't recall" and Undecided with 1%; Herzog (I) and would not vote with 0%
- ↑ Stewart (L) and Undecided with 1%; Herzog (I) and "Someone else" with 0%
- ↑ Herzog (I) with 3%; Stewart (L) with 2%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
- 1 2 3 4 With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
- ↑ Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 1%; Undecided with 3%
- ↑ "Refused" with 4%; "Someone else" and "Undecided/do not remember" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
- 1 2 "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
- 1 2 3 Standard VI response
- 1 2 3 "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
- ↑ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
- ↑ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
- ↑ Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 2%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
- ↑ Stewart (L) with 5%; Herzog (I) with 0%; Undecided with 3%
- ↑ Herzog (I), "No one" and Stewart (L) with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
- 1 2 3 With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- 1 2 3 With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- ↑ Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 8%
- ↑ Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 4%
- ↑ Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
- ↑ Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 1%; Undecided with 12%
- ↑ If the only candidates were Ernst and Greenfield
- ↑ Undecided with 9%
- ↑ Stewart (L) with 1%; Herzog (I), "Other" and "No one" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
- 1 2 Stewart (L) with 1; Herzog (I) with 0%; Undecided with 4%
- ↑ Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 14%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 7%
- ↑ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
- ↑ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 7%
- ↑ Undecided with 8%
- 1 2 Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; Undecided with 3%
- ↑ Stewart (L) and Undecided with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%
- ↑ "No one" with 11%
- ↑ Undecided with 24%
- ↑ "Another candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 7%
- ↑ Response after pollster addresses respondents with talking points about Ernst and Mauro
- ↑ Would not vote with 3%
- ↑ "Would consider voting for someone else" with 20%; "unsure" with 6%
References
- ↑ "United States Senate election in Iowa, 2020 (June 2 Democratic primary)". ballotpedia.org. Retrieved January 13, 2020.
- ↑ Rosenberg, Benjamin (October 16, 2020). "Joni Ernst didn't know the price of soybeans. Here's why that could cost her". Vox. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
- ↑ "United States Senate election in Iowa, 2020 (General Election)".
- ↑ Cohen, Zach C. (December 5, 2018). "How 2014's Outsiders Became 2020's Insiders". National Journal. Archived from the original on July 9, 2019. Retrieved December 5, 2018.
- ↑ Axelrod, Tal (December 8, 2018). "Iowa's Ernst will run for reelection in 2020". TheHill. Retrieved December 30, 2018.
- 1 2 3 4 5 Gunzburger, Ron. "Politics1 – Online Guide to Iowa Politics". politics1.com. Retrieved December 31, 2018.
- ↑ Tope, Mallory (October 31, 2019). "Candidates gear up campaigns for Iowa U.S. Senate race". Iowa State Daily. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
- ↑ "Primary Election". sos.iowa.gov.
- 1 2 "2020 Candidates". maggieslist.org.
- 1 2 "Primary Election – 2020 CANVASS SUMMARY" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved August 27, 2020.
- ↑ "State of Iowa 2020 Primary Election Results". The Des Moines Register. June 3, 2020. Retrieved September 5, 2020.
- ↑ Panetta, Grace. "Theresa Greenfield wins the Democratic primary for US Senate in Iowa". Business Insider. Retrieved August 24, 2020.
- ↑ Manchester, Julia (June 2, 2020). "Greenfield wins Senate Democratic primary in Iowa". The Hill. Retrieved September 14, 2020.
- ↑ Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "Theresa Greenfield to take on Joni Ernst in high-profile battle for U.S. Senate seat". Des Moines Register. Retrieved August 7, 2020.
- ↑ "Democrats Fight for Chance to Take on GOP Sen. Ernst in Iowa". The New York Times. The Associated Press. June 1, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 7, 2020.
- ↑ Gerber, Drew [@dagerber] (June 3, 2019). "Theresa Greenfield launches her campaign for #IASEN. She's been highly sought after by the party" (Tweet). Retrieved June 3, 2019 – via Twitter.
- ↑ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (August 26, 2019). "Retired Navy Admiral Michael Franken to run for U.S. Senate, challenge Joni Ernst". Des Moines Register. Retrieved August 26, 2019.
- ↑ Becker, Amanda; Jackson, Katharine (January 19, 2019). "Women protest in hundreds of U.S. cities for third straight year". Reuters. Retrieved May 11, 2019.
- ↑ Wade, Jazmen (July 20, 2019). "Iowa US Senate Candidate Kimberly Graham for the People". KHQA.
- ↑ Iowa Starting Line [@IAStartingLine] (May 19, 2019). "Guess we'll wait for the official thing tomorrow AM, but FYI #IASenpic.twitter.com/E0EJWVXsRF" (Tweet). Retrieved May 19, 2019 – via Twitter.
- ↑ Rivers, Amie (March 2, 2020). "U.S. Senate candidate Cal Woods looking to take on 'climate crisis' if elected". The Courier.
- ↑ "Meet Cal". Cal for Iowa. Archived from the original on April 10, 2020. Retrieved April 10, 2020.
- ↑ Lynch, James Q. "Cal Woods drops out of Iowa Democratic U.S. Senate race". The Gazette. Retrieved May 5, 2020.
- ↑ Price, Dave [@idaveprice] (April 30, 2019). "Confirmed: Iowa Democrat @RepCindyAxne running for re-election in the 3rd District. Not running for senate against @SenJoniErnst in 2020. Axne is in her first term after defeating two term incumbent @RepDavidYoung in 2018. @WHOhd #iowavotes2020" (Tweet). Retrieved April 30, 2019 – via Twitter.
- ↑ "2020 Senate At-A-Glance" (PDF). Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 9, 2019.
- ↑ "Democrats look to unseat Joni Ernst in 2020 Senate race". The Washington Times. Retrieved December 28, 2018.
- ↑ Bowman, Bridget (August 21, 2019). "House freshmen try to keep it local as presidential race steals the spotlight". Roll Call. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
- 1 2 3 Meyer, Elizabeth (September 24, 2019). "Finkenauer Endorses Greenfield In Effort To Unseat Ernst". Iowa Starting Line.
- ↑ "Endorsement Alert!". us7.campaign-archive.com. Retrieved August 30, 2019.
- 1 2 3 "Who will run against Joni Ernst in 2020?". Iowa Starting Line. November 12, 2018. Retrieved November 12, 2018.
- ↑ Arkin, James (February 27, 2019). "Senate recruiting notebook: Duran clarifies field facing Gardner". Politico. Retrieved February 27, 2019.
And former state Sen. Rita Hart, the 2018 Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, is a potential candidate, according to multiple Iowa Democrats, but she has not discussed a campaign publicly.
- ↑ Weig, Nick (February 26, 2019). "Sen. Liz Mathis meets with Democrats in D.C. to talk about 2020 Senate race". CBS2. Retrieved February 27, 2019.
- ↑ Rynard, Pat (February 25, 2019). "Who's Gearing Up To Challenge Joni Ernst?". Iowa Starting Line. Retrieved February 25, 2019.
- ↑ Judd, Donald (August 5, 2019). "Iowa native JD Scholten announces second bid to unseat GOP Rep. Steve King". CNN. Retrieved August 5, 2019.
- ↑ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (February 22, 2019). "Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack will not run for the U.S. Senate against Sen. Joni Ernst in 2020". Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 22, 2019.
- ↑ "Stacey Walker won't seek U.S. Senate nomination". The Gazette. August 12, 2019. Retrieved August 12, 2019.
- ↑ Lynch, James Q. "Linn County Supervisor Stacey Walker endorses Kimberly Graham for Senate". The Gazette. Retrieved October 30, 2019.
- ↑ "Iowa Press Debates: U.S. Senate Democratic Primary". www.youtube.com.
- ↑ "The Public Pulse: Davis essay rang true; Hagel supports Franken; Trump is the real threat". Omaha.com. May 28, 2020.
- 1 2 3 4 "Endorsements". Kimberly Graham for U.S. Senate. Retrieved April 2, 2020.
- ↑ "Kimberly Graham". Brand New Congress. October 23, 2019. Archived from the original on October 29, 2019. Retrieved October 29, 2019.
- ↑ Murray, Isabella (December 5, 2019). "Iowa Climate Strikes Will Draw National, State Political Leaders". Iowa Starting Line.
- 1 2 "IA-Sen: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D. OH) Helps Theresa Greenfield (D) Get Ready To Defeat Joni Ernst (R)". Daily KOS. December 16, 2019.
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 "Endorsements". greenfieldforiowa.com. Archived from the original on May 7, 2020. Retrieved May 9, 2020.
- 1 2 Opsahl, Robin (June 25, 2019). "Theresa Greenfield nets endorsement from Rep. Dave Loebsack in Democratic Senate primary". Des Moines Register.
- ↑ Obama, Barack (August 3, 2020). "First Wave of 2020 Endorsements". medium.com. Retrieved September 7, 2020.
- 1 2 Brown, Kris (January 8, 2020). "Brady Endorses Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate: Iowa Needs A Common-sense Champion". Brady.
- 1 2 "DSCC Endorses Theresa Greenfield in Iowa Senate Campaign". DSCC: Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. June 6, 2019.
- 1 2 "EMILY's List Endorses Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate in Iowa". Emily's List. June 6, 2019.
- 1 2 Muller, Tiffany (July 10, 2019). "End Citizens United Endorses Theresa Greenfield; Names Ernst to "Big Money 20"". End Citizens United.
- 1 2 "2020 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
- 1 2 "In Key Senate Races, Giffords Backs Challengers in Iowa and North Carolina Taking on NRA-Backed Incumbents". Giffords. April 10, 2020.
- 1 2 Burke, Holly (October 2, 2019). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved November 26, 2019.
- 1 2 "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate". NARAL Pro-Choice America. November 7, 2019.
- 1 2 "2020 Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on September 18, 2020. Retrieved May 9, 2020.
- ↑ "The Green Papers: Iowa 2020 General Election". The Green Papers. May 15, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
- ↑ "Suzanne Herzog For US Senate – Iowa's Independent Voice". Archived from the original on December 16, 2019. Retrieved December 16, 2019.
- ↑ Phillips, Amber (August 7, 2020). "The most competitive Senate races of 2020". The Washington Post. Retrieved September 19, 2020.
- ↑ Nilsen, Ella (September 14, 2020). "The ways Democrats could retake the Senate majority, explained". Vox. Retrieved September 19, 2020.
- ↑ "Iowa Senate – Ernst vs. Greenfield". RealClear Politics. Retrieved September 5, 2020.
- ↑ "Iowa U.S. Senate Polls". FiveThirtyEight. June 28, 2018. Retrieved September 5, 2020.
- ↑ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (June 13, 2020). "Iowa Poll: Theresa Greenfield leads Joni Ernst in tight race for U.S. Senate". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 5, 2020.
- ↑ "IOWA: CLOSE CONTESTS FOR PREZ & SENATE" (Press release). West Long Branch, NJ: Monmouth University. August 5, 2020. Retrieved September 5, 2020.
- ↑ Panetta, Grace (August 7, 2020). "What you need to know about the US Senate election in Iowa between Joni Ernst and Theresa Greenfield". Business Insider. Retrieved September 5, 2020.
- ↑ Coltrain, Nick. "Record-smashing Iowa Senate race fuels deluge of final-stretch campaign spending". Des Moines Register.
- ↑ "Iowa Senate 2020 Race". OpenSecrets.
- ↑ Gabriel, Trip (September 2, 2020). "Joni Ernst, in a Tight Senate Race, Repeats a Debunked Coronavirus Theory". The New York Times. Retrieved September 7, 2020.
- ↑ Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "In a slew of competitive Senate races, Iowa's draws second-highest advertising spending in the country". Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 22, 2020.
- ↑ "Iowa Press Debates: U.S. Senate". Iowa Press Debates. September 28, 2020. Archived from the original on October 20, 2020. Retrieved October 15, 2020.
- ↑ "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ↑ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ↑ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
- ↑ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. Retrieved October 21, 2020.
- ↑ "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.
- ↑ "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved October 21, 2020.
- ↑ Silver, Nate (August 12, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 21, 2020.
- ↑ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- ↑ "Endorsed Candidates". www.cwfpac.com. Campaign for Working Families. Retrieved August 26, 2020.
- ↑ PAC, Huck. "Candidates – Huck PAC". www.huckpac.com.
- ↑ Kirsten Gillibrand (February 5, 2020). "Off the Sidelines Endorsed Candidates".
- ↑ "First Wave of 2020 Endorsements". August 3, 2020.
- ↑ "Endorsements | Warren Democrats". elizabethwarren.com. Archived from the original on January 7, 2021. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
- ↑ "U.S. Senate – Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.
- ↑ "Iowa – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
- ↑ "Cedar Rapids Gazette Editorial Board Endorses Greenfield: "It's time for a new voice in the Senate, that voice is Theresa Greenfield."". October 3, 2020. Archived from the original on November 13, 2020. Retrieved October 31, 2020.
- ↑ "Des Moines Register Editorial Board Endorsement: "Greenfield should be given an opportunity to refocus the junior senator's office on working Iowans" – Theresa Greenfield". Theresa Greenfield. October 18, 2020. Archived from the original on November 1, 2020. Retrieved October 31, 2020.
- ↑ "Telegraph Herald Editorial Board: "Greenfield merits opportunity to serve Iowa in U.S. Senate"". October 25, 2020. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved October 31, 2020.
- ↑ "Our pick: Send Theresa Greenfield and Rita Hart to Congress".
- ↑ "Quad-City Times Editorial Board: "We endorse Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate."". October 9, 2020. Archived from the original on October 21, 2020. Retrieved October 31, 2020.
- ↑ "2020 Endorsements".
- ↑ "Theresa Greenfield". Climate Hawks Vote.
- ↑ "Theresa Greenfield for Senate (D-IA) – Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
- ↑ "Democracy for America endorses Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate in Iowa". Democracy for America. February 12, 2020.
- ↑ "Everytown For Gun Safety Action Fund Endorses Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate in Iowa". Everytown. June 9, 2020.
- ↑ "JStreetPAC Candidates". JStreetPAC. Archived from the original on May 2, 2018. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
- ↑ "Candidates We Endorse and Support". NCPSSM.
- ↑ "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 11 House, Senate Candidates". nrdcactionfund.org. June 15, 2020.
- 1 2 "General Election – 2020 Canvass Summary" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State.
- ↑ "Iowa U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved October 3, 2021.
Further reading
- Amber Phillips (October 9, 2020), "The Senate seats most likely to flip parties in November", Washingtonpost.com
External links
- "League of Women Voters of Iowa". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- National Institute on Money in Politics; Campaign Finance Institute, "Iowa 2019 & 2020 Elections", OpenSecrets
- Official campaign websites
- Joni Ernst (R) for Senate
- Theresa Greenfield (D) for Senate Archived June 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
- Suzanne Herzog (I) for Senate Archived December 16, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
- Rick Stewart (L) for Senate