2020 United States Senate election in Maine
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Susan Collins Sara Gideon Lisa Savage
Party Republican Democratic Independent
Popular vote 417,645[lower-alpha 1] 347,223[lower-alpha 1] 40,579[lower-alpha 1]
Percentage 51.0% 42.4% 5.0%
Collins:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Gideon:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Tie:      
U.S. senator before election

Susan Collins
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Susan Collins
Republican

The 2020 United States Senate election in Maine was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Maine, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. This was Maine's first election for its Class 2 seat to use its ranked choice voting system. Because the first round of the general election saw a majority (51%), the instant runoff tabulation of more than 800,000 ballots was not carried out.

Republican Senator Susan Collins was challenged by Democratic nominee Sara Gideon, the speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, as well as independent candidates Lisa Savage and Max Linn. Collins was considered one of the most vulnerable Republican senators due to her decreased polling numbers and perceived harm to her reputation but was reelected by an unexpectedly large 8.6% margin, with 51% of the vote to Gideon's 42.4%. Despite this, her 51% share of the vote was her worst performance since her first election in 1996 and was a 17-point drop from 2014. Maine was the only state to elect a senator of a different party than the winner of its presidential contest in the November 3 election, with Collins outperforming President Donald Trump, who lost the state to Democratic nominee Joe Biden by 9.1%.[1]

Background

Republican senator Susan Collins, widely considered one of the two least conservative Republican U.S. senators (the other being Lisa Murkowski), ran for a fifth term.[2] Collins had won each election to this seat by a greater victory margin than the one before it. Observers did not anticipate this election to continue that trend.[3][4][5][6]

Collins was criticized for her decision to vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court despite his anti-abortion stances (Collins describes herself as pro-choice) and allegations of sexual misconduct and abuse against him, though she gave a highly publicized speech on the Senate floor explaining her reasoning.[7][8] She also faced criticism for her stance on the impeachment of President Donald Trump. Collins voted in favor of allowing witness testimony in the Senate trial, and was the first Republican to do so,[9] and she voted to acquit Trump on both charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.[10][11][12][13] She said she voted to acquit because "impeachment of a president should be reserved for conduct that poses such a serious threat to our governmental institutions as to warrant the extreme step of immediate removal from office."[14] She initially claimed that Trump "learned a pretty big lesson" from the impeachment,[15] but later said that she thought he had not learned from it after all.[16] She has also been criticized for running for third, fourth, and fifth Senate terms despite vowing to serve no more than two terms during her 1996 campaign, though she has explained this as a product of having learned the value of seniority in the Senate. The emphasis on seniority became a key theme of her campaign.[17][18] Collins's campaign emphasized her efficiency as a legislator, her efforts to pass the Paycheck Protection Program and other aid for small businesses, and her growing seniority and influence in the Senate, in particular her potential chairwomanship of the Appropriations Committee.

The Democratic nominee, Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives Sara Gideon, supports criminal justice reforms, expansion of the Affordable Care Act, rejoining the Paris Climate Accord, and imposing universal background checks on gun sales to combat gun violence. In 2019, Gideon faced an election ethics complaint for accepting reimbursements for her political donations from her own PAC. Gideon apologized for the violation, reimbursed the federal government a total of $3,250, and closed the PAC.[19] Gideon was also criticized for keeping the Maine House of Representatives adjourned for most of the year (neighboring New Hampshire had reconvened its sizably larger legislature by late spring) and for allegedly turning a blind eye to a legislative colleague accused of molesting underage girls until she was forced to acknowledge the scandal.[20][21]

Lisa Savage, a longtime antiwar activist and schoolteacher from Solon, initially sought the Maine Green Independent Party nomination, but in late February, she announced her intention to instead qualify for the ballot as an independent due to Maine's restrictive ballot access measures.[22][23] In April, Savage turned in more than 5,500 signatures to the Secretary of State's office and thus qualified for the general election ballot.

Max Linn, a financial planner and conservative activist from Bar Harbor, was a Trump supporter and former candidate of the Republican and Reform parties. In July 2020, he qualified for the ballot as an independent. Former Republican state senator Mary Small challenged the signatures on his petition, but the secretary of state found that he had enough and he was placed on the ballot.[24] Later that month, he announced his intention to drop out of the race to support Collins. But days later, he decided not to drop out unless Collins agreed to a list of policies, which she did not.[25]

Party primaries were initially scheduled to take place on June 9, but due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the state, Governor Janet Mills rescheduled them for July 14. Mills's executive order also expanded voters' ability to request absentee ballots, which could then be done up to and on election day.[26] The primaries were conducted with ranked choice voting. Parties qualified to participate in the 2020 primary election were the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, and the Maine Green Independent Party.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Amy Colter, law office manager (write-in candidate)[28]

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Collins		 Derek
Levasseur		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 55% 10% 34%
Hypothetical polling
with Susan Collins and Paul LePage
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Collins		 Paul
LePage		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 29% 63% 8%
with Susan Collins and Shawn Moody
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Collins		 Shawn
Moody		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 36% 45% 18%
with Susan Collins and generic Republican if Collins supported impeaching Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Collins		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 35% 55% 10
with Susan Collins and Derek Levasseur if Collins supported impeaching Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Collins		 Derek
Levasseur		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 37% 24% 39%
with Susan Collins and generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Collins		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 53% 38% 9%

Results

Republican primary results[34]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Susan Collins (incumbent) 87,375 98.79%
Republican Amy Colter (write-in) 1,073 1.21%
Total votes 88,448 100.0%

Democratic primary

On April 20, 2019, attorney and activist Bre Kidman became the first person to announce their candidacy for the Democratic nomination. If elected, they would be the first ever U.S. Senator who identifies as non-binary.[35] On June 13, 2019, former Maine gubernatorial candidate Betsy Sweet declared her candidacy.[36] Eleven days later, Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon announced her candidacy, receiving widespread media coverage.[37][38][39][40] General Jon Treacy had previously announced his candidacy before withdrawing. Former Google executive and political aide Ross LaJeunesse, who would have been the first openly gay man elected to the Senate, announced his candidacy in November 2019. He received the endorsement of the national political group The Victory Fund in January 2020. LaJeunesse eventually withdrew from the race in March 2020, citing the inability to continue his strategy of campaigning in person due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and endorsed Gideon. Two debates were held with all three candidates, while one hosted by WCSH was attended only by Sweet and Kidman.[41][42][43]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Sara
Gideon		 Betsy
Sweet		 Other /
Undecided
Victory Geek (D) May 13–18, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 3] – 67% 17% 17%[lower-alpha 4]
Colby College/SocialSphere February 10–13, 2020 383 (LV) – 60% 8% 33%[lower-alpha 5]

Results

Results by county
  Gideon
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Democratic primary results[64]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Sara Gideon 116,264 71.47%
Democratic Betsy Sweet 37,327 22.94%
Democratic Bre Kidman 9,090 5.59%
Total votes 162,681 100.0%

Other candidates

Green Independent Party

Two candidates declared their intentions to run for the Maine Green Independent Party's nomination, but one withdrew and the other left the party to become an independent. Lisa Savage left the party because of Maine's ballot access requirements; Savage needed 2,000 registered party members to sign a nomination petition to appear on the ballot as the Green Party candidate but could only gather them from January 1 until the March 15 deadline. The Green Party had roughly 41,000 members statewide, which was significantly fewer than the Democratic and Republican parties but nonetheless required the same number of signatures. No alternative party candidate for statewide office had been able to meet this requirement since Pat LaMarche did so in 2006 for governor. Instead, Savage sought to appear as an independent candidate, which required 4,000 signatures, but they may be from any registered voter, not just party members and they could have been gathered until the June deadline.[23]

Withdrawn

  • David Gibson, solar design specialist (endorsed Savage)[65]
  • Lisa Savage, school teacher[66] (switched to independent)[67]

Write-in candidates

Independents

Independent Lisa Savage is a peace activist and retired schoolteacher from Solon, Maine.

Eight Independents declared their candidacy for Senate in 2020, including one affiliated with the Libertarian Party of Maine, which lost ballot access after the 2018 elections.[72] Two qualified for positions on the November ballot.[69]

Declared

Withdrawn

  • Joshua Arnone, accounting clerk affiliated with the Libertarian Party of Maine[28][69]
  • Steven Golieb, Millinocket town councilor[73][69]
  • Leigh Hawes, truck driver[74][69]
  • Danielle VanHelsing, LGBTQ rights activist[50][69]
  • Linda Wooten, vocational educator and conservative activist[28][69]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[75] Tossup October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[76] Tilt D (flip) October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[77] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[78] Tossup October 30, 2020
Politico[79] Tossup November 2, 2020
RCP[80] Tossup October 23, 2020
DDHQ[81] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
538[82] Tossup November 2, 2020
Economist[83] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020

Debates

The four candidates participated in two in-person debates on September 11 and September 29, both held without an audience.[84] Collins at one point proposed holding 16 debates, one for every county in Maine, but such a schedule was not agreed upon.[85]

2020 United States Senate election in Maine debates
 N°DateModeratorParticipants
Key:
 P  Participant.   NI  Not invited.  		 Republican Democratic Independent Independent
United States Senator
Susan Collins
 Maine House Speaker
Sara Gideon		 Financial planner
Max Linn		 Public schoolteacher
Lisa Savage
 
1
 		 Friday, September 11, 2020
Pat Callaghan
Rachel Ohm
Michael Shepherd
 P P P P
 
2
 		 Tuesday, September 29, 2020
Kelly O'Mara
Jason Parent
 P P P P
 
3
 		 Thursday, October 15, 2020
Jennifer Rooks
Steve Mistler
Mal Leary
 P P P P
 
4
 		 Thursday, October 22, 2020
Pat Callaghan
 P P P P
 
5
 		 Wednesday, October 28, 2020 P P
NI
NI

Endorsements

Susan Collins (R)
U.S. presidents
U.S. senators
U.S. Governors
Other individuals
Organizations
Sara Gideon (D)
U.S. presidents
U.S. vice presidents
U.S. senators
Members of U.S. Congress
State executive officials
State legislators
Individuals
  • Stephen King, author[107]
  • Ross LaJeunesse, former aide to George J. Mitchell, Ted Kennedy, Steve Westly and Arnold Schwarzenegger[108]
Organizations
Unions
Lisa Savage (I)
State Executives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Publications
Declined to endorse

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Sara Gideon vs. Susan Collins
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Sara Gideon Susan Collins Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 6] Margin
270 to Win October 6 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 46.4% 42.6% 11.0% Gideon +3.8
Real Clear Politics September 10–23, 2020 September 25, 2020 48.5% 42.0% 9.5% Gideon +6.5
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Collins (R)		 Sara
Gideon (D)		 Lisa
Savage (I)		 Other /
Undecided
Change Research October 29 – November 2, 2020 1,024 (LV) ± 3.5% 42%[lower-alpha 7] 46% 7% 5%[lower-alpha 8]
46%[lower-alpha 9] 54% – –
Emerson College October 29–31, 2020 611 (LV) ± 3.9% 46%[lower-alpha 10] 48% 5% 5%[lower-alpha 11]
47%[lower-alpha 12] 51% – 5%[lower-alpha 13]
SurveyUSA October 23–27, 2020 1007 (LV) ± 3.7% 45%[lower-alpha 7] 46% 4% 5%[lower-alpha 14]
49%[lower-alpha 15] 51% – –
Colby College October 21–25, 2020 879 (LV) ± 3.3% 43%[lower-alpha 7] 47% 5% 5%[lower-alpha 16]
44%[lower-alpha 17] 49% – 7%[lower-alpha 18]
Pan Atlantic Research October 2–6, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.5% 40%[lower-alpha 7] 47% 5% 8%[lower-alpha 19]
41%[lower-alpha 20] 49% 1% 9%[lower-alpha 21]
Critical Insights September 25 – October 4, 2020 466 (LV) ± 4.4% 43%[lower-alpha 7] 44% 3% 11%[lower-alpha 22]
43%[lower-alpha 12] 46% 1% 10%[lower-alpha 23]
Data for Progress (D) September 23–28, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.7% 41%[lower-alpha 7] 46% 3% 11%[lower-alpha 24]
42%[lower-alpha 25] 50% – 8%[lower-alpha 26]
Colby College September 17–23, 2020 847 (LV) ± 3.4% 41%[lower-alpha 7] 45% 3% 11%[lower-alpha 27]
43%[lower-alpha 20] 47% – 6%[lower-alpha 28]
Moore Information (R)[upper-alpha 1] September 20–22, 2020 600 (LV) – 42% 42% – 9%[lower-alpha 29]
Suffolk University September 17–20, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 41%[lower-alpha 7] 46% 4% 7%[lower-alpha 30]
42%[lower-alpha 31] 49% 1% 8%[lower-alpha 32]
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 11–16, 2020 663 (LV) ± 5.1% 40%[lower-alpha 7] 44% 2% 2%[lower-alpha 33]
44%[lower-alpha 34] 49% 0% 7%[lower-alpha 35]
Quinnipiac University September 10–14, 2020 1,183 (LV) ± 2.9% 42% 54% – 4%[lower-alpha 36]
Citizen Data September 4–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 41% 49% 1% 9%[lower-alpha 37]
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[upper-alpha 2] August 30 – September 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 43%[lower-alpha 7] 44% 6% 8%[lower-alpha 38]
47%[lower-alpha 25] 48% – 5%[lower-alpha 39]
Public Policy Polling August 13–14, 2020 571 (V) ± 4.1% 44% 49% – 7%[lower-alpha 40]
Critical Insights July 28 – August 9, 2020 453 (LV) ± 4.3% 38% 43% 5% 15%[lower-alpha 41]
499 (RV) 35%[lower-alpha 7] 43% 5% 18%[lower-alpha 42]
37%[lower-alpha 17] 44% 1% 18%[lower-alpha 43]
Quinnipiac University July 30 – August 3, 2020 807 (RV) ± 3.5% 43% 47% – 10%[lower-alpha 44]
RMG Research July 27 – August 2, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 41% 48% – 11%[lower-alpha 45]
Data for Progress July 24 – August 2, 2020 866 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 48% – 7%[lower-alpha 46]
Colby College/SocialSphere July 18–24, 2020 888 (LV) ± 3.9% 39% 44% – 18%[lower-alpha 47]
Public Policy Polling July 22–23, 2020 561 (V) ± 3.6% 42% 47% – 11%[lower-alpha 45]
Public Policy Polling July 2–3, 2020 1,022 (V) ± 3.1% 42% 46% – 11%[lower-alpha 45]
Moore Information (R)[upper-alpha 1] June 20–24, 2020[lower-alpha 48] 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 37% 3% 1%[lower-alpha 49]
Victory Geek (D) May 13–18, 2020 512 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 51% – 7%[lower-alpha 40]
Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] April 2020 –[lower-alpha 50] – 48% 47% – 5%
Public Policy Polling March 2–3, 2020 872 (V) ± 3.3% 43% 47% – 10%[lower-alpha 51]
Colby College/SocialSphere February 10–13, 2020 1,008 (LV) ± 3.1% 42% 43% – 14%[lower-alpha 52]
Fabrizio Ward[upper-alpha 2] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 35% – 13%[lower-alpha 53]
Gravis Marketing Archived June 28, 2019, at the Wayback Machine June 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 44%[lower-alpha 54] 30% – 26%[lower-alpha 55]
52%[lower-alpha 25] 36% – 12%[lower-alpha 56]
Pan Atlantic Research March 4–13, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 29% – 20%[lower-alpha 57]
Hypothetical polling
with Betsy Sweet
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Betsy Sweet (D) Susan
Collins (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Victory Geek (D) May 13–18, 2020 512 (LV) ± 4.3% 44% 43% 10%
with Susan Rice
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Rice (D)		 Susan
Collins (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Emerson College October 27–29, 2018 883 (LV)[lower-alpha 58] ± 3.5% 20% 44% 35%
with generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Susan Collins (R) Other /
Undecided
Victory Geek (D) May 13–18, 2020 512 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 39% 12%[lower-alpha 56]
Colby College/SocialSphere Feb 10–13, 2020 1,008 (LV) ± 3.1% 34% 40% 26%
Public Policy Polling October 11–13, 2019 939 (V) ± 3.2% 44% 41% 15%[lower-alpha 59]
Public Policy Polling October 1–2, 2018 –[lower-alpha 50] ± 3.3% 34% 42% –
Public Policy Polling (D) Archived December 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 4] August 28–29, 2017 501 (V) – 21% 51% 27%[lower-alpha 60]
with generic Democrat if Collins supports impeaching Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Susan
Collins (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 11–13, 2019 939 (V) ± 3.2% 38% 32% 30%[lower-alpha 61]
with generic Democrat if Collins opposes impeaching Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Susan
Collins (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 11–13, 2019 939 (V) ± 3.2% 47% 40% 13%[lower-alpha 62]
with Generic Opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Collins (R)		 Generic
Opponent		 Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward[upper-alpha 2] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 55% 7%[lower-alpha 63]
Pan Atlantic Research March 4–13, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 25% 27% 48%[lower-alpha 64]
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Other /
Undecided
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 11–16, 2020 663 (LV) ± 5.1% 41% 53% 6%[lower-alpha 65]
Quinnipiac University September 10–14, 2020 1,183 (LV) ± 2.9% 40% 53% 7%[lower-alpha 40]
Fabrizio Ward[upper-alpha 2] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 42% 15%[lower-alpha 66]

Results

Like many Republican Senate candidates in 2020, Collins did much better on Election Day than pre-election polls predicted; nearly all of them predicted her defeat.[138] Collins defeated Gideon in the general election with 51.0% of the first-place votes, precluding additional rounds of tabulation.[139] Gideon conceded to Collins on November 4.[140]

United States Senate election in Maine, 2020[141]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Susan Collins (incumbent) 417,645 50.98% -17.48%
Democratic Sara Gideon 347,223 42.39% +10.89%
Independent Lisa Savage 40,579 4.95% N/A
Independent Max Linn 13,508 1.65% N/A
Write-in 228 0.03% -0.01%
Total votes 819,183 100.0% N/A
Republican hold
By county
County Susan Collins
Republican		 Sara Gideon
Democratic		 Lisa Savage
Independent		 Max Linn
Independent		 Write-in Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # % # % # %
Androscoggin 32,979 56.19 22,181 37.79 2,438 4.15 1,090 1.86 2 0.00 10,798 18.40 58,690
Aroostook 24,033 67.51 9,750 27.39 1,072 3.01 743 2.09 3 0.01 14,283 40.12 35,601
Cumberland 74,592 38.45 105,308 54.29 11,907 6.14 2,138 1.10 39 0.02 -30,716 -15.83 193,984
Franklin 9,817 56.47 6,276 36.10 969 5.57 322 1.85 0 0.00 3,541 20.37 17,384
Hancock 17,371 49.19 15,379 43.55 1,821 5.16 736 2.08 8 0.02 1,992 5.64 35,315
Kennebec 39,481 54.92 27,664 38.49 3,407 4.74 1,324 1.84 10 0.01 11,817 16.44 71,886
Knox 11,705 45.44 12,190 47.32 1,461 5.67 399 1.55 3 0.01 -485 -1.88 25,758
Lincoln 12,075 51.08 10,102 42.73 1,111 4.70 349 1.48 3 0.01 1,973 8.35 23,640
Oxford 19,567 58.54 11,705 35.02 1,511 4.52 635 1.90 4 0.01 7,862 23.52 33,422
Penobscot 51,088 59.96 28,958 33.98 3,461 4.06 1,600 1.88 100 0.12 22,130 25.97 85,207
Piscataquis 6,603 66.95 2,655 26.92 394 3.99 210 2.13 0 0.00 3,948 40.03 9,862
Sagadahoc 11,558 48.08 10,787 44.87 1,354 5.63 337 1.40 3 0.01 771 3.21 24,039
Somerset 17,861 64.92 7,355 26.73 1,770 6.43 525 1.91 3 0.01 10,506 38.18 27,514
Waldo 12,538 51.57 9,768 40.18 1,604 6.60 394 1.62 9 0.04 2,770 11.39 24,313
Washington 11,196 64.56 5,251 30.28 547 3.15 338 1.95 10 0.06 5,945 34.28 17,342
York 64,092 49.46 57,826 44.63 5,389 4.16 2,255 1.74 16 0.01 6,266 4.84 129,578
Overseas 1,089 19.28 4,068 72.02 363 6.43 113 2.00 15 0.27 -2,979 -52.74 5,648
Totals 417,645 50.98 347,223 42.39 40,579 4.95 13,508 1.65 228 0.03 70,422 8.60 819,183
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Collins won 1 of the 2 congressional districts in the state, which also elected a Democrat.[142]

District Gideon Collins Representative
1st 48.0% 45.5% Chellie Pingree
2nd 38.5% 61.5% Jared Golden

Analysis

Gideon underperformed Biden by 10.6%, the second-worst underperformance by a Democratic Senate candidate in the country.[143] Examples of this discrepancy include Wells, a coastal town in the state's liberal southwest corner, where Biden won by 14% and Collins by 6%.[144]

During his presidency, Collins's stance on Trump waffled, as he did not share her moderate politics but had a strong base in Maine's sprawling, rural 2nd congressional district. Collins voted against the Affordable Care Act repeal, but for the GOP's 2017 tax bill and to acquit Trump in his first impeachment. She voted to confirm Trump's nominees Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court but against the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett just days before the 2020 election, citing disagreement with process.[145]

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the NRSC, which exclusively supports Republican candidates in U.S. Senate elections.
  2. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by AARP.
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by the 1820 PAC.
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line
Voter samples
  1. 1 2 3 Maine uses ranked-choice voting. Results shown are first-choice votes.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ Likely primary voter subsample of 306 likely general election Democratic voters
  4. ↑ Undecided with 17%
  5. ↑ Undecided with 31%; LaJeunesse with 0%; "another candidate" with 2%
  6. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Standard VI response
  8. ↑ Linn (I) with 2%; "Don't recall", would not vote, and Undecided with 1%; Did not vote with 0%
  9. ↑ With 3 rounds of Ranked Choice Voting
  10. ↑ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  11. ↑ Linn (I) and "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  12. 1 2 Reassigning the second preferences of Linn, Savage and "Someone else" voters
  13. ↑ "No second choice" and "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  14. ↑ Linn (I) with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  15. ↑ With Ranked Choice Voting
  16. ↑ Linn (I) with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  17. 1 2 Reassigning the second preferences of Savage voters
  18. ↑ Linn (I) with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  19. ↑ Linn (I) with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  20. 1 2 Reassigning the second preferences of Linn and Savage voters
  21. ↑ Linn (I) with 2%; Undecided with 8%
  22. ↑ Linn (I), "Someone else" and "Refused" with 1%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  23. ↑ "No second preference" and "Refused" with 1%; Linn (I) and "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  24. ↑ Linn (I) with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  25. 1 2 3 If only Collins and Gideon were candidates
  26. ↑ Undecided with 8%
  27. ↑ Linn (I) with 5%; Undecided with 6%
  28. ↑ Undecided with 6%
  29. ↑ Undecided with 9%
  30. ↑ Linn (I) with 2%; "Other" and "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  31. ↑ Assigning the second preferences of non-Collins/Gideon voters
  32. ↑ Linn (I) and "Refused" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  33. ↑ Linn (I) with 2%
  34. ↑ Topline after Ranked Choice Voting is used
  35. ↑ Would not vote with 1%; Linn (I) and "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  36. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  37. ↑ "Other" with 2%; Linn (I) with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  38. ↑ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  39. ↑ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  40. 1 2 3 Undecided with 7%
  41. ↑ "Refused" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 13%
  42. ↑ Would not vote with 2%; "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 14%
  43. ↑ Would not vote with 2%; "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 15%
  44. ↑ "Someone else" and would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  45. 1 2 3 Undecided with 11%
  46. ↑ "No one" with 7%
  47. ↑ "Minor party candidates" with 6%; Undecided with 12%
  48. ↑ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  49. ↑ Linn (I) with 1%
  50. 1 2 Not yet released
  51. ↑ Undecided with 10%
  52. ↑ Undecided with 14%
  53. ↑ Undecided with 12%; "Would not vote/would not vote for US Senate" with 1%
  54. ↑ First choice on an RCV ballot if the candidates were Collins, Gideon and VanHelsing (I)
  55. ↑ Undecided with 19%; VanHelsing with 7%
  56. 1 2 Undecided with 12%
  57. ↑ "Other" with 12%; Undecided with 8%
  58. ↑ Using the likely voter screen for the 2018 U.S. Senate election in Maine
  59. ↑ Undecided with 15%
  60. ↑ Undecided with 27%
  61. ↑ Undecided with 30%
  62. ↑ Undecided with 13%
  63. ↑ "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  64. ↑ "Consider voting for Collins" with 40%; Undecided with 8%
  65. ↑ "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  66. ↑ "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 15%

References

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  2. ↑ Parlapiano, Alicia; Benzaquen, Mercy (June 22, 2017). "Where Senators Stand on the Health Care Bill". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved July 11, 2020.
  3. ↑ "2020 Senate Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report.
  4. ↑ Leary, Mal (August 17, 2019). "New Report Calls Maine 2020 Senate Race A 'Toss-Up'". Maine Public.
  5. ↑ Bowden, John (August 16, 2019). "Cook Political Report moves Susan Collins Senate race to 'toss up'". The Hill.
  6. ↑ Carrigan, Don (August 23, 2019). "Political expert says next year's Senate race a 'toss-up'". News Center Maine.
  7. ↑ "U.S. Senate: U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 115th Congress – 2nd Session". www.senate.gov.
  8. ↑ "On the Nomination PN2259: Brett M. Kavanaugh, of Maryland, to ... – Senate Vote #223 – Oct 6, 2018". GovTrack.us.
  9. ↑ "READ: Susan Collins' statement on impeachment witness vote". January 30, 2020.
  10. ↑ "U.S. Senate: U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 116th Congress – 2nd Session". www.senate.gov.
  11. ↑ "U.S. Senate: U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 116th Congress – 2nd Session". www.senate.gov.
  12. ↑ "Guilty or Not Guilty H.Res. 755 – Senate Vote #33 – Feb 5, 2020". GovTrack.us.
  13. ↑ "Guilty or Not Guilty H.Res. 755 – Senate Vote #34 – Feb 5, 2020". GovTrack.us.
  14. ↑ "Susan Collins says Trump 'has learned' from impeachment case". theweek.com. February 4, 2020.
  15. ↑ Bowden, John (February 4, 2020). "Collins: Trump has learned 'a pretty big lesson' from impeachment". The Hill.
  16. ↑ Wise, Justin (February 6, 2020). "Collins admits comments about Trump learning a lesson are 'aspirational'". The Hill.
  17. ↑ "Democrats say Collins broke two-term pledge Senator made promise in '96, '02, admits she underestimated seniority". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved July 8, 2020.
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  22. ↑ Winger, Richard (February 24, 2020). "Maine Green Party Fails to get its U.S. Senate Candidate on the Green Party Primary Ballot | Ballot Access News".
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  33. ↑ @mikeshepherdME (August 4, 2019). ".@BrucePoliquin confirms that he won't run for office in 2020. It might leave @SenatorBrakey alone in the #me02 primary. #mepolitics" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  35. ↑ Collins, Steve (May 3, 2019). "'Queer feminist mermaid' hopes to unseat Collins". Lewiston Sun Journal. Retrieved June 19, 2020.
  36. 1 2 Shepherd, Michael (June 13, 2019). "Progressive Democrat Betsy Sweet unveils bid to challenge Susan Collins". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved June 13, 2019.
  37. 1 2 Graham, Gillian (June 24, 2019). "Gideon announces she will challenge Collins in 2020". Kennebec Journal. Retrieved June 24, 2019.
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  39. ↑ Wagner, John (June 24, 2019). "Susan Collins draws a Democratic challenger who seeks to undermine her moderate image". The Washington Post. Retrieved June 25, 2019.
  40. ↑ Cillizza, Chris (June 24, 2019). "Susan Collins had a very bad day today". CNN. Retrieved June 25, 2019.
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  42. ↑ "Maine Democratic US Senate hopeful Gideon misses debate". Newsradio WGAN. Associated Press. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
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  44. ↑ Collins, Steve (April 22, 2019). "Saco lawyer Bre Kidman seeks Democratic backing to challenge Susan Collins". Lewiston Sun Journal. Retrieved April 22, 2019.
  45. ↑ Weinland, Gerald [@DirigoBlue] (December 19, 2018). "Michael Bunker of Bangor has filed to run as a Dem against @SenatorCollins in 2020 #mepolitics #mesen" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  48. ↑ Dr Cathleen London [@DrChaya] (July 16, 2018). "I am running because #SCOTUS cannot wait @SenatorCollins needs to realize that Maine & the country are watching & she was held accountable for her votes #mepolitics My announcement: https://www.doctorcatlondonforme.com/_api/media-share-server-for-video/crp5?instance-id=5f191a6c-020c-4fc6-9b82-2786411308cb&component-id=comp-jjog8axh&channel-id=2435a32f-3d87-4ae1-aac4-b8175b02e63c&video-id=b3603e263c0a42348786f1c1f8fe8d60&bi-token=8a23ff18-94ae-0e5a-0a87-60cb8863dede … @DrCat4ME" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  49. ↑ "LONDON, Cathleen Greenberg Dr – Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
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  53. 1 2 @SaraGideonME (June 24, 2019). "Unbelievably honored to have the endorsement of so many Mainers as I launch my campaign for U.S. Senate to defeat Susan Collins. I will always put Maine first and I'm proud to have the support of these dedicated public servants. #MESen #MEpolitics" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  59. ↑ "Former Maine Gov. John Baldacci wants Stephen King to run for office: 'You've got a winner there'". Washington Examiner. September 12, 2017. Retrieved October 28, 2018.
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  61. ↑ Gray, Emma; Vagianos, Alanna (April 11, 2019). "Susan Rice Will Not Run Against Susan Collins For Maine Senate Seat In 2020". HuffPost. Retrieved April 11, 2019.
  62. ↑ Merica, Dan; Bradner, Eric; Krieg, Gregory (October 5, 2018). "The effort to unseat Susan Collins in 2020 is already underway". CNN. Retrieved January 6, 2024.
  63. ↑ Emerson, Anthony [@AnthonyEmerso14] (June 17, 2019). "Love that Betsy Sweet has a disclaimer on emails sent from email lists that were not her own. Shows a commitment to transparency. Also, hey, @RingelsteinME is backing her!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  65. ↑ Shepherd, Michael (July 23, 2019). "Green candidate's entry pushes Maine toward ranked-choice U.S. Senate race in 2020". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved July 24, 2019.
  66. 1 2 "Lisa for Maine". Lisa for Maine. Archived from the original on September 21, 2019. Retrieved September 21, 2019.
  67. 1 2 3 Shephard, Michael (February 24, 2020). "Green US Senate candidate to unenroll for easier path to Maine ballot in 2020". BDN Politics. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  68. ↑ Bond, Tiffany [@TiffanyBond] (November 14, 2019). "If only you hadn't voted for a tax bill that buries us in an absurd amount of debt and hinders our flexibility to find solutions. You may not have children, but I do, and they deserve a goddam future without crippling debt and a crumbling planet. Hire a mom for Senate" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  69. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "Upcoming Elections". Maine Secretary of State. August 3, 2020. Retrieved August 16, 2020.
  70. 1 2 3 "Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions". maine.gov.
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  72. ↑ @MESecofState (December 17, 2018). "1/2 The Libertarian Party no longer has party status in the State of Maine, as it did not reach the threshold of 10,000 voters in the Nov. 6 General Election, as required in Maine law. If you were enrolled as a Libertarian, you are now "unenrolled" as of Dec. 4" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  86. 1 2 "Trump agrees '100%' that Susan Collins' 2020 re-election is crucial for Republicans". Bangor Daily News. December 24, 2019.
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  88. ↑ Everett, Burgess (April 11, 2019). "Joe Manchin endorses Susan Collins for reelection". Politico. Retrieved April 11, 2019.
  89. ↑ Russell, Eric (September 9, 2020). "Former Democratic senator, vice presidential nominee Lieberman endorses Collins".
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