2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses

January 15, 2024

40 Republican National Convention delegates
 
Candidate Donald Trump Nikki Haley
Home state Florida South Carolina

 
Candidate Ron DeSantis Vivek Ramaswamy
Home state Florida Ohio

Previous Republican nominee

Donald Trump

Republican nominee

TBD

The 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses will be held on January 15, 2024,[1] as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 40 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention will be allocated on a proportional basis.[2] As in past primary cycles, the Iowa caucus will be the first-in-the-nation Republican presidential primary caucus.

Background and electorate

History of the Iowa caucus

Beginning in 1972, the Iowa caucuses have been characterized as the first major electoral test for both Democratic and Republican presidential contenders.[3] Despite its strategic importance, between 1976 and 2016, only three out of eight winners of the Iowa caucuses went on to receive the Republican presidential nomination.[4]

Republican electorate

Matthew Dallek, a professor of political history at George Washington University, has argued that the Iowa Republican caucuses effectively serve as "referendums on who is the most socially conservative candidate" in the Republican field.[4]

Commentators have noted the decisive role of Evangelical Christian caucusgoers in past contests. The victory of social conservatives Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ted Cruz in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 Iowa caucuses, respectively, was credited to their strong support among evangelical voters.[5][6][7][8]

In 2016, it was noted by The Des Moines Register that almost half of likely Republican caucusgoers self-identify as evangelical or born-again Christians.[9] In the 2016 Iowa Republican caucus, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas defeated eventual nominee Donald Trump by a 27.6% to 24.3% margin in what was considered an upset victory.

Procedure

Delegates are proportionally allocated to candidates based on the statewide vote. Unlike most states, there is no minimum threshold for a candidate to be eligible for delegates.[10]

Campaign developments

In February 2023, the Trump campaign announced its Iowa campaign staff, with state representative Bobby Kaufmann and consultant Eric Branstad, the son of former Governor Terry Branstad, serving as senior advisors.[11] In March 2023, Trump's campaign announced that it would hold an "America First Education Policy" event in Davenport on March 13, marking his first official campaign appearance in the state.[12][13]

Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis, who has declared his candidacy,[14] held a pair of events in the state on March 10, and was accompanied by Governor Kim Reynolds.[15] However, Reynolds remained neutral between Trump and DeSantis, which caused Trump to post on Truth Social accusing her of stealing the race from him and that like DeSantis, she wouldn't have been elected without Trump's help.[16] Reynolds broke her neutrality in November 2023 and endorsed DeSantis.[17] Additionally, between October and December, DeSantis toured all 99 Iowan counties.[18]

Endorsements

Ron DeSantis
Governors
State senators
State representatives
Notable individuals
Nikki Haley
Former executive branch officials
State senators
State representatives
Mayors
Notable individuals
Vivek Ramaswamy
Former U.S. Representatives
State executive officials
State senators
Donald Trump
Former Executive Branch officials
Former U.S. Representatives
State Executive officials
State senators
State representatives
Notable individuals
Declined to endorse
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Newspapers

Maps

Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the Iowa Senate.
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (13)
  Endorsed Donald Trump (6)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (1)
  Endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy (1)
  No endorsement (13)
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the Iowa House of Representatives.
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (25)
  Endorsed Donald Trump (15)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (6)
  No endorsement (17)

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Chris
Christie
Ron
DeSantis
Nikki
Haley
Asa
Hutchinson
Vivek
Ramaswamy
Donald
Trump
Other/
Undecided[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
270toWin December 21, 2023 – January 12, 2024 January 12, 2024 3.0% 16.0% 17.0% 0.3% 6.6% 52.8% 4.3% Trump +35.8
FiveThirtyEight Through January 11, 2024 January 12, 2024 16.1% 17.3% 0.4% 6.6% 51.3% 4.4% Trump +34.0
RealClearPolling December 15 – January 8, 2024 January 8, 2024 3.5% 15.5% 17.8% 0.3% 6.5% 53.0% 3.4% Trump +35.2
Average 3.3% 15.9% 17.4% 0.3% 6.6% 52.4% 3.4% Trump +35.0
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Doug
Burgum
Chris
Christie
Ron
DeSantis
Larry
Elder
Nikki
Haley
Asa
Hutchinson
Mike
Pence
Vivek
Ramaswamy
Tim
Scott
Donald
Trump
Other Undecided
Insider Advantage Jan 11, 2024 850 (LV) ± 4.32% 16.5% 16.7% 0.4% 7.4% 50.8% 8.2%
Suffolk University Jan 6–10, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 13% 20% 0% 6% 54%
InsiderAdvantage Dec 18–19, 2023 850 (LV) ± 4.36% 4% 15% 17% 0% 8% 50% 6%
Fox Business Dec 14–18, 2023 804 (LV) ± 3.5% 3% 18% 16% 0% 7% 52% 1% 2%
Emerson College Dec 15–17, 2023 420 (LV) ± 4.7% 4% 15% 17% 0% 8% 50% 6%
Iowa State University/Civiqs Dec 8–13, 2023 438 (LV) ± 6.0% 4% 17% 15% 1% 7% 54% 0%[lower-alpha 3] 2%
Selzer & Co.[upper-alpha 1] Dec 2–7, 2023 502 (LV) ± 4.4% 4% 19% 16% 1% 5% 51% 2%[lower-alpha 4] 3%
Trafalgar Group Dec 1–4, 2023 1,091 (LV) ± 2.9% 2% 4% 22% 19% 1% 5% 45% 1%
Morning Consult Nov 1–30, 2023 324 (LV) 1% 2% 18% 11% 0% 13% 5% 50%
Iowa State University/Civiqs Nov 10–15, 2023 432 (LV) ± 4.3% 1% 3% 18% 12% 0% 6% 2% 54% 0% 4%
Arc Insights[upper-alpha 2] Nov 9–14, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 1% 4% 17% 17% <1% 5% 44% 2%[lower-alpha 5] 9%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[upper-alpha 3] Nov 9–12, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 1% 5% 19% - 16% 0% - 4% 5% 43% 0% 7%
2% 5% 20% - 18% 0% - 5% - 44% 0% 7%
Trafalgar Group (R) Nov 3–5, 2023 1,084 (LV) ± 2.9% 4% 5% 18% 15% 0% 5% 9% 44% 0%[lower-alpha 6] 1%
Morning Consult Oct 1–31, 2023 324 (LV) 1% 2% 15% 7% 0% 3% 9% 6% 57%
Public Opinion Strategies[upper-alpha 4] Oct 24–26, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 2% 20% 12% 1% 1% 4% 5% 46%
Selzer & Co.[upper-alpha 1] Oct 22–26, 2023 404 (LV) ± 4.9% 3% 4% 16% 16% 1% 2%[lower-alpha 7] 4% 7% 43% 2%[lower-alpha 8] 3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[upper-alpha 3] Oct 17–19, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 3% 21% 0% 14% 0% 2% 4% 5% 42% 2%[lower-alpha 9] 6%
Iowa State University/Civiqs Oct 6–10, 2023 425 (LV) ± 6.1% 0% 2% 17% 0% 11% 0% 1% 5% 4% 55% 2%[lower-alpha 10] 1%
Morning Consult Sep 1–30, 2023 316 (LV) 1% 5% 13% 6% 7% 9% 7% 53%
CBS News/YouGov Sep 15–24, 2023 458 (LV) ± 6.1% 0% 1% 21% 0% 8% 1% 6% 5% 6% 51% 0%[lower-alpha 11]
Public Opinion Strategies[upper-alpha 5] Sep 19–21, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 2% 21% 9% 0% 2% 5% 6% 45% 9%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[upper-alpha 6] Sep 17–19, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 1% 5% 15% 13% <1% 2% 5% 5% 45% <1%[lower-alpha 12] 7%
Trafalgar Group (R) Sep 14–18, 2023 1,079 (LV) ± 2.9% 4% 2% 16% 0% 8% 0% 4% 7% 7% 49% 1%[lower-alpha 13] 2%
Fox Business Sep 14–18, 2023 813 (LV) ± 3% 2% 3% 15% <0.5% 11% <0.5% 3% 7% 7% 46% 3%[lower-alpha 14] 2%
Emerson College Sep 7–9, 2023 357 (V) ± 5.1% 3% 14% 7% 3% 7% 8% 49% 6%
Civiqs Sep 2–7, 2023 434 (LV) ± 5.8% 2% 3% 14% 10% 0% 1% 9% 6% 51% 1%[lower-alpha 15]
Public Opinion Strategies Sep 5–6, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 3% 22% 6% 1% 2% 6% 5% 45%
Morning Consult Aug 1–31, 2023 341 (LV) 1% 4% 15% 6% 0% 6% 8% 7% 52% 0%[lower-alpha 16] 1%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates Aug 25–28, 2023 500 (LV) 2% 3% 18% <1% 10% 1% 2% 7% 7% 44% <2%[lower-alpha 17] 5%
Public Opinion Strategies August 24, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 1% 21% 11% 1% 2% 7% 7% 41%
Public Opinion Strategies Aug 19–21, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 3% 3% 14% 3% <1% 2% 10% 3% 42%
HarrisX[upper-alpha 7] Aug 17–21, 2023 1,120 (LV) [lower-alpha 18] 2% 3% 11% 0% 4% 0% 3% 9% 8% 45% 3%[lower-alpha 19] 12%
[lower-alpha 20] 2% 4% 21% 1% 6% 1% 8% 18% 15% 4%[lower-alpha 21] 19%
Echelon Insights[upper-alpha 8] Aug 15–17, 2023 800 (LV) ± 4.2% 2% 4% 17% 2% <1% 3% 8% 3% 33% 3%[lower-alpha 22] 14%
Selzer & Co.[upper-alpha 1] Aug 13–17, 2023 406 (LV) ± 4.9% 2% 5% 19% 6% 6% 4% 9% 42% 1%[lower-alpha 23] 5%
The Trafalgar Group (R) Aug 14–16, 2023 1,126 (LV) ± 2.9% 3% 4% 16% 1% 5% 1% 4% 6% 13% 42% 3%[lower-alpha 24] 3%
New York Times/Siena College Jul 28 – August 1, 2023 432 (LV) ± 5.9% 1% <1% 20% <1% 4% <1% 3% 5% 9% 44% <2%[lower-alpha 25] 12%
39% 55% 4%
Manhattan Institute Jul 2023 625 (LV) 3% 4% 17% 0% 5% 1% 4% 6% 10% 42% 1%[lower-alpha 26] 7%
Morning Consult July 1–31, 2023 350 (LV) 1% 2% 19% 4% 0% 4% 8% 5% 55% 2%
National Research[upper-alpha 9] Jul 23–24, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 3% 4% 15% 3% 0% 2% 5% 9% 42% 13%
Fox Business Jul 15–19, 2023 806 (LV) ± 3.5% 3% 3% 16% <1% 5% 1% 4% 6% 11% 46% 1%[lower-alpha 27] 4%
co/efficient[upper-alpha 10] Jul 15–17, 2023 2,238 (LV) ± 2.6% 3% 16% 3% 3% 5% 10% 46% 10%
National Research[upper-alpha 9] Jul 5–6, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 3% 21% 2% 1% 3% 3% 7% 44% 14%
Morning Consult June 1–30, 2023 317 (LV) 0% 1% 18% 2% 1% 7% 3% 3% 64% 0%[lower-alpha 28] 1%
McLaughlin & Associates[upper-alpha 10] Jun 10–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 19% 6% 9% 51% 15%
33% 60% 7%
National Research[upper-alpha 9] Jun 5–7, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 2% 24% 4% 0% 4% 1% 5% 39% 21%
Victory Insights Jun 3–6, 2023 450 (LV) ± 4.9% 3% 21% 5% 5% 2% 6% 44% 3%[lower-alpha 29] 12%
32% 49% 19%
WPA Intelligence[upper-alpha 11] May 30 – June 1, 2023 655 (RV) 29% 6% <1% 4% 4% 7% 39% 11%
43% 45% 12%
Morning Consult May 1–31, 2023 300 (LV) 17% 5% 0% 8% 5% 1% 60% 4%[lower-alpha 30] 0%
McLaughlin & Associates May 23–25, 2023 400 (LV) 0% 1% 24% 1% 4% 1% 5% 2% 7% 50% 3%[lower-alpha 31] 4%
36% 54% 11%
Emerson College May 19–22, 2023 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 0% 20% 5% 1% 5% 2% 3% 62% 2%[lower-alpha 32]
National Research[upper-alpha 9] May 9–11, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 26% 6% 1% 4% 3% 1% 44% 11%
33% 45% 22%
McLaughlin & Associates[upper-alpha 10] Apr 27–30, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 1% 20% 1% 5% 0% 7% 2% 1% 54% 5%[lower-alpha 33] 5%
22% 57%
Morning Consult Apr 1–30, 2023 294 (LV) 20% 4% 0% 7% 4% 0% 60% 3%[lower-alpha 34] 2%
Victory Insights Apr 10–13, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.8% 24% 14% 4% 3% 54% 1%[lower-alpha 35]
59% 24% 5% 8% 4%[lower-alpha 36]
41% 59%
Cygnal Apr 3–4, 2023 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 30% 5% 1% 2% 2% 1% 37% 3%[lower-alpha 37] 19%
J.L. Partners Mar 25 – April 4, 2023 628 (LV) ± 3.9% 26% 5% 3% 1% 41% 10%[lower-alpha 38] 14%
39% 47% 15%
Morning Consult Mar 1–31, 2023 329 (LV) 27% 5% 7% 0% 57% 2%[lower-alpha 39] 2%
Morning Consult Feb 1–28, 2023 281 (LV) 25% 6% 9% 0% 0% 52% 8%[lower-alpha 40] 0%
Morning Consult Jan 1–31, 2023 367 (LV) 27% 5% 9% 1% 51% 5%[lower-alpha 41] 2%
Morning Consult Dec 1–31, 2022 227 (LV) 35% 2% 11% 1% 44% 8%[lower-alpha 42] 0%
WPA Intelligence[upper-alpha 12] Nov 11–13, 2022 508 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 37% 16%
WPA Intelligence[upper-alpha 12] Aug 7–10, 2022 508 (LV) ± 4.4% 37% 52% 12%
Neighborhood Research and Media[upper-alpha 13] Jun 22 – July 1, 2022 546 (LV) ± 4.2% 17% 2% 2% 38% 4%[lower-alpha 43]
Victory Insights Mar 5–8, 2021 630 (RV) 4% 6% 8% 61% 13%[lower-alpha 44]
20% 10% 19% 33%[lower-alpha 45]

Results

Iowa Republican precinct caucuses, January 15, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump
Ron DeSantis
Nikki Haley
Vivek Ramaswamy
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Asa Hutchinson
Ryan Binkley
David Stuckenberg
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 100.00% 40 0 40
Source: "Who's running for president in 2024? Here's a rundown of the candidates". KCCI. Retrieved December 4, 2023.

See also

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Ryan Binkley and David Stuckenberg with 0%
  4. Ryan Binkley with 0%; "None of these" with 2%
  5. "Someone else" with 2%
  6. Ryan Binkley with 0%
  7. The other percentages in this result were increased by redistributing Pence's supporters to their second-choice candidates in the poll
  8. "Someone else" with 2%; Ryan Binkley with 0%
  9. Perry Johnson with 1%
  10. Ryan Binkley with 2%; Will Hurd and Perry Johnson with 0%
  11. Will Hurd with 0%
  12. Perry Johnson & Will Hurd with <1%
  13. Perry Johnson with 1%; Ryan Binkley with and Will Hurd with 0%
  14. Ryan Binkley, Perry Johnson and "Other" with 1%; Asa Hutchinson and "None of the above" with <0.5%
  15. Ryan Binkley with 1% and Will Hurd with 0%
  16. Francis Suarez with 0%
  17. Perry Johnson and Will Hurd with <1%; Francis Suarez with 0%
  18. Standard VI response
  19. "Someone else" with 2%; Ryan Binkley with 1%; Will Hurd, Perry Johnson, Corey Stapleton and Francis Suarez with 0%
  20. If Trump did not run in the caucuses
  21. "Someone else" with 3%; Ryan Binkley with 1%; Will Hurd, Perry Johnson, Corey Stapleton and Francis Suarez with 0%
  22. "Someone else" with 2%; Will Hurd with 1%; Ryan Binkley and Francis Suarez with <1%
  23. Will Hurd with 1%
  24. Ryan Binkley and Perry Johnson with 1%; Will Hurd and Francis Suarez with 0%
  25. "Someone else" with <1%; Will Hurd with <1%; Francis Suarez with 0%
  26. "Someone else" with 1%; Francis Suarez with 0%
  27. Franciz Suarez at 1%; Will Hurd at less than 1%
  28. Francis Saurez with 0%
  29. Someone else with 3%
  30. Greg Abbott with 2%; Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 1%
  31. Mitt Romney with 3%; Rick Perry, Chris Sununu, Perry Johnson, Francis Suarez with 0%
  32. Someone else with 2%
  33. Mitt Romney with 4%, Liz Cheney with 1%, Chris Sununu, John Bolton and Glenn Youngkin with 0%
  34. Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 1%; Greg Abbott, Mike Pompeo with 0%
  35. Perry Johnson with 1%
  36. Perry Johnson with 4%
  37. Kristi Noem with 2%; Mike Pompeo with 1%
  38. Mike Pompeo with 3%; Glenn Youngkin with 1%; "Someone else" with 6%
  39. Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 1%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney and Glenn Youngkin with 0%
  40. Liz Cheney and Ted Cruz with 3%; Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 1%
  41. Ted Cruz with 3%; Greg Abbott, Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 1%, Liz Cheney with 0%
  42. Kristi Noem with 3%; Ted Cruz with 2%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney and Mike Pompeo with 1%, Glenn Youngkin with 0%
  43. Kim Reynolds, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio with 1%
  44. Mitt Romney with 5%; Ted Cruz with 4%; Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 2%
  45. Ted Cruz with 16%; Mitt Romney with 5%; Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 6%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the Des Moines Register, NBC News & Mediacom Iowa
  2. Poll sponsored by Fields of Freedom
  3. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the Make America Great Again Inc. (Super Pac)
  4. Poll sponsored by And To The Republic, a non-profit with ties to DeSantis
  5. Poll sponsored by Citizens Awareness Project
  6. Poll sponsored by Make America Great Again Inc. super PAC, which supports Trump
  7. Poll sponsored by American Free Enterprise Chamber of Commerce
  8. Poll commissioned by Republican Main Street Partnership
  9. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by American Greatness, which supports Trump
  10. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Trump campaign
  11. Poll sponsored by Never Back Down PAC, which supports DeSantis.
  12. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Club for Growth
  13. Poll sponsored by Courageous Conservatives PAC

References

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  2. "Iowa Republican Presidential Nominating Process". thegreenpapers.com. March 5, 2023. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  3. Holland, Brynn (November 25, 2019). "How the Iowa Caucus Has Shaped the US Presidential Race". History.com. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
  4. 1 2 Norwood, Candice (February 6, 2020). "Do Iowa caucus winners become president? History shows mixed results". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
  5. "GOP race divides evangelical voters in Iowa". PBS NewsHour. February 1, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
  6. "Trump and Iowa evangelicals: A bond that is hard to break". Associated Press. April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 19, 2023. Beyond Cruz, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum won the 2012 caucuses as a crusading abortion opponent. In 2008, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, an ordained Baptist minister, posted a surprise victory by cobbling together a Christian coalition of pastors and religious home-school advocates.
  7. Cohn, Nate (May 5, 2015). "Mike Huckabee and the Continuing Influence of Evangelicals". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 19, 2023. Most important, evangelicals also represent nearly 60 percent of Iowa caucus goers, which allowed cultural conservatives like Rick Santorum (in 2012) and Mr. Huckabee (in 2008) to carry the state.
  8. Zitner, Aaron. "Ted Cruz's Iowa Win Powered by Evangelicals, Conservatives". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved May 15, 2023.
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  52. "Grassley unlikely to issue 2024 presidential endorsement". qctimes.com. December 15, 2022.
  53. Ferris, Sarah; Mutnick, Ally; Everett, Burgess (April 18, 2023). "DeSantis gets warm words at GOP Hill event, but few endorsements". Politico. "I'm not endorsing anybody. I just think it's always good to see who's out there," Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) said
  54. "Campaign Almanac: More GOP presidential candidates added to Ashley Hinson's BBQ Bash". www.thegazette.com.
  55. Beaumont, Thomas (July 16, 2023). "DeSantis would consider Iowa's Reynolds as running mate, calls Trump's attack of her 'out of hand'". Stamford Advocate.
  56. "Editorial: Quad-City Times won't endorse prior to Iowa caucuses". Quad-City Times. January 7, 2024. Retrieved January 7, 2024.
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