2016 United States presidential election in Indiana
November 8, 2016
Turnout57.9% [1]
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,557,286 1,033,126
Percentage 56.47% 37.46%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.

The 2016 United States presidential election in Indiana was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Indiana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Indiana has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Trump won the state with 56.47% of the vote, while Clinton received 37.46%.[3] Indiana is the home state of Pence, which was believed to have provided important assistance to the Trump campaign in what already would have been a Republican-leaning state.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

County results of the 2016 Indiana Democratic presidential primary.
  Bernie Sanders
  Hillary Clinton

Two candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

Indiana Democratic primary, May 3, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 335,074 52.46% 44 0 44
Hillary Clinton 303,705 47.54% 39 7 46
Uncommitted — 0 2 2
Total 638,779 100% 83 9 92
Source: The Green Papers - Official Primary Results

Republican primary

  Donald Trump
  Ted Cruz

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

Indiana Republican primary, May 3, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 591,514 53.26% 57 0 57
Ted Cruz 406,783 36.63% 0 0 0
John Kasich 84,111 7.57% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 8,914 0.80% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 6,508 0.59% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn) 5,175 0.47% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 4,306 0.39% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,738 0.16% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 1,494 0.13% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,110,543 100.00% 57 0 57
Source: The Green Papers

General Election

Polling

Donald Trump won every pre-election poll conducted by at least 5 points, and often by double digits. The average of the last 3 polls showed Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton 49% to 38%.[4] Donald Trump had won almost all the undecided vote, as shown by the results where he won 56% to 37%.

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
CNN[5] Safe R November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[6] Likely R November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[7] Safe R November 7, 2016
NBC[8] Lean R November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[9] Likely R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[10] Lean R November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Safe R November 7, 2016

Results

2016 United States presidential election in Indiana[12]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence		 1,557,286 56.9% +2.8%
Democratic Hillary Clinton
Tim Kaine		 1,033,126 37.8% -6.1%
Libertarian Gary Johnson
Bill Weld		 133,993 4.9% +3.0%
Green Jill Stein (write-in)
Ajamu Baraka		 7,841 0.3% +0.1%
Constitution Darrell Castle (write-in)
Scott Bradley		 1,937 0.1% +0.1%
Write-in 775 0.0% N/A
Total votes 2,734,958 100.00%

By congressional district

Trump won 7 of 9 congressional districts.[13]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 41% 54% Pete Visclosky
2nd 59% 36% Jackie Walorski
3rd 65% 30% Marlin Stutzman
4th 64% 30% Todd Rokita
5th 53% 41% Susan Brooks
6th 68% 27% Luke Messer
7th 36% 58% André Carson
8th 64% 31% Larry Bucshon
9th 61% 34% Todd Young

By county

County Donald Trump
Republican		 Hillary Clinton
Democratic		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 9,648 73.12% 2,805 21.26% 741 5.62% 6,843 51.86% 13,194
Allen 83,930 56.47% 55,382 37.26% 9,320 6.27% 28,548 19.21% 148,632
Bartholomew 20,640 63.09% 9,841 30.08% 2,236 6.83% 10,799 33.01% 32,717
Benton 2,579 69.93% 860 23.32% 249 6.75% 1,719 46.61% 3,688
Blackford 3,350 68.63% 1,243 25.47% 288 5.90% 2,107 43.16% 4,881
Boone 19,654 60.41% 10,181 31.29% 2,702 8.30% 9,473 29.12% 32,537
Brown 5,016 62.69% 2,518 31.47% 467 5.84% 2,498 31.22% 8,001
Carroll 6,273 72.10% 1,892 21.74% 536 6.16% 4,381 50.36% 8,701
Cass 9,701 68.27% 3,759 26.46% 749 5.27% 5,942 41.81% 14,209
Clark 30,035 57.99% 18,808 36.32% 2,946 5.69% 11,227 21.67% 51,789
Clay 8,531 75.26% 2,306 20.34% 498 4.40% 6,225 54.92% 11,335
Clinton 8,531 71.15% 2,819 23.51% 641 5.34% 5,712 47.64% 11,991
Crawford 3,015 64.95% 1,323 28.50% 304 6.55% 1,692 36.45% 4,642
Daviess 8,545 78.98% 1,800 16.64% 474 4.38% 6,745 62.34% 10,819
Dearborn 18,113 75.06% 4,883 20.24% 1,135 4.70% 13,230 54.82% 24,131
Decatur 8,490 75.95% 2,121 18.97% 567 5.08% 6,369 56.98% 11,178
DeKalb 12,054 70.92% 3,942 23.19% 1,000 5.89% 8,112 47.73% 16,996
Delaware 24,263 53.31% 18,153 39.89% 3,093 6.80% 6,110 13.42% 45,509
Dubois 13,365 66.51% 5,389 26.82% 1,341 6.67% 7,976 39.69% 20,095
Elkhart 41,867 63.21% 20,740 31.31% 3,632 5.48% 21,127 31.90% 66,239
Fayette 6,839 71.25% 2,252 23.46% 507 5.29% 4,587 47.79% 9,598
Floyd 21,432 56.64% 13,945 36.85% 2,465 6.51% 7,487 19.79% 37,842
Fountain 5,662 75.15% 1,476 19.59% 396 5.26% 4,186 55.56% 7,534
Franklin 8,669 78.12% 1,969 17.74% 459 4.14% 6,700 60.38% 11,097
Fulton 6,010 71.23% 1,960 23.23% 467 5.54% 4,050 48.00% 8,437
Gibson 11,081 71.56% 3,721 24.03% 682 4.41% 7,360 47.53% 15,484
Grant 17,008 66.51% 7,010 27.41% 1,554 6.08% 9,998 39.10% 25,572
Greene 10,277 74.14% 2,929 21.13% 655 4.73% 7,348 53.01% 13,861
Hamilton 87,404 56.04% 57,263 36.72% 11,299 7.24% 30,141 19.32% 155,966
Hancock 25,074 68.76% 8,904 24.42% 2,490 6.82% 16,170 44.34% 36,468
Harrison 12,943 69.74% 4,783 25.77% 832 4.49% 8,160 43.97% 18,558
Hendricks 48,337 63.45% 22,600 29.67% 5,247 6.88% 25,737 33.78% 76,184
Henry 13,895 68.48% 5,124 25.25% 1,271 6.27% 8,771 43.23% 20,290
Howard 23,675 63.40% 11,215 30.03% 2,452 6.57% 12,460 33.37% 37,342
Huntington 11,649 71.99% 3,506 21.67% 1,026 6.34% 8,143 50.32% 16,181
Jackson 12,859 72.79% 3,843 21.75% 965 5.46% 9,016 51.04% 17,667
Jasper 9,382 69.61% 3,329 24.70% 767 5.69% 6,053 44.91% 13,478
Jay 5,697 71.02% 1,889 23.55% 436 5.43% 3,808 47.47% 8,022
Jefferson 8,546 62.59% 4,326 31.69% 781 5.72% 4,220 30.90% 13,653
Jennings 8,224 73.23% 2,364 21.05% 643 5.72% 5,860 52.18% 11,231
Johnson 45,456 67.70% 17,318 25.79% 4,373 6.51% 28,138 41.91% 67,147
Knox 11,077 71.00% 3,772 24.18% 753 4.82% 7,305 46.82% 15,602
Kosciusko 23,935 73.78% 6,313 19.46% 2,193 6.76% 17,622 54.32% 32,441
LaGrange 7,025 72.68% 2,080 21.52% 561 5.80% 4,945 51.16% 9,666
Lake 75,625 37.29% 116,935 57.66% 10,243 5.05% -41,310 -20.37% 202,803
LaPorte 22,687 49.74% 19,798 43.41% 3,124 6.85% 2,889 6.33% 45,609
Lawrence 14,035 72.95% 4,210 21.88% 993 5.17% 9,825 51.07% 19,238
Madison 32,376 59.54% 18,595 34.20% 3,407 6.26% 13,781 25.34% 54,378
Marion 130,360 35.53% 212,899 58.03% 23,620 6.44% -82,539 -22.50% 366,879
Marshall 12,288 67.36% 4,798 26.30% 1,155 6.34% 7,490 41.06% 18,241
Martin 3,697 76.29% 881 18.18% 268 5.53% 2,816 58.11% 4,846
Miami 9,975 73.34% 2,766 20.34% 860 6.32% 7,209 53.00% 13,601
Monroe 20,592 35.23% 34,216 58.53% 3,646 6.24% -13,624 -23.30% 58,454
Montgomery 11,059 72.41% 3,362 22.01% 851 5.58% 7,697 50.40% 15,272
Morgan 23,674 75.28% 6,040 19.21% 1,732 5.51% 17,634 56.07% 31,446
Newton 4,077 69.57% 1,404 23.96% 379 6.47% 2,673 45.61% 5,860
Noble 12,198 71.32% 3,904 22.83% 1,002 5.85% 8,294 48.49% 17,104
Ohio 2,118 72.51% 686 23.49% 117 4.00% 1,432 49.02% 2,921
Orange 5,803 70.10% 2,048 24.74% 427 5.16% 3,755 45.36% 8,278
Owen 6,153 71.41% 1,946 22.59% 517 6.00% 4,207 48.82% 8,616
Parke 4,863 73.28% 1,441 21.71% 332 5.01% 3,422 51.57% 6,636
Perry 4,556 56.30% 3,062 37.84% 474 5.86% 1,494 18.46% 8,092
Pike 4,398 73.58% 1,297 21.70% 282 4.72% 3,101 51.88% 5,977
Porter 38,832 49.62% 33,676 43.03% 5,758 7.35% 5,156 6.59% 78,266
Posey 8,404 66.74% 3,521 27.96% 667 5.30% 4,883 38.78% 12,592
Pulaski 3,854 70.60% 1,327 24.31% 278 5.09% 2,527 46.29% 5,459
Putnam 10,637 71.78% 3,356 22.65% 825 5.57% 7,281 49.13% 14,818
Randolph 7,517 71.43% 2,446 23.24% 560 5.33% 5,071 48.19% 10,523
Ripley 9,806 75.81% 2,471 19.10% 658 5.09% 7,335 56.71% 12,935
Rush 5,292 72.83% 1,525 20.99% 449 6.18% 3,767 51.84% 7,266
Scott 6,074 66.40% 2,642 28.88% 431 4.72% 3,432 37.52% 9,147
Shelby 12,718 70.34% 4,247 23.49% 1,115 6.17% 8,471 46.85% 18,080
Spencer 6,572 65.41% 2,861 28.47% 615 6.12% 3,711 36.94% 10,048
St. Joseph 52,021 46.51% 52,252 46.72% 7,569 6.77% -231 -0.21% 111,842
Starke 6,367 68.34% 2,489 26.72% 460 4.94% 3,878 41.62% 9,316
Steuben 10,133 68.87% 3,744 25.45% 837 5.68% 6,389 43.42% 14,714
Sullivan 6,138 71.26% 2,113 24.53% 362 4.21% 4,025 46.73% 8,613
Switzerland 2,558 68.97% 930 25.07% 221 5.96% 1,628 43.90% 3,709
Tippecanoe 30,768 48.57% 27,282 43.07% 5,292 8.36% 3,486 5.50% 63,342
Tipton 5,589 74.42% 1,587 21.13% 334 4.45% 4,002 53.29% 7,510
Union 2,445 73.76% 715 21.57% 155 4.67% 1,730 52.19% 3,315
Vanderburgh 40,496 55.19% 28,530 38.88% 4,349 5.93% 11,966 16.31% 73,375
Vermillion 4,513 64.72% 2,081 29.84% 379 5.44% 2,432 34.88% 6,973
Vigo 21,937 54.67% 15,931 39.70% 2,259 5.63% 6,006 14.97% 40,127
Wabash 9,821 72.47% 3,018 22.27% 713 5.26% 6,803 50.20% 13,552
Warren 2,898 73.31% 839 21.22% 216 5.47% 2,059 52.09% 3,953
Warrick 19,113 63.84% 9,086 30.35% 1,741 5.81% 10,027 33.49% 29,940
Washington 8,209 72.12% 2,636 23.16% 537 4.72% 5,573 48.96% 11,382
Wayne 16,028 62.66% 8,322 32.53% 1,229 4.81% 7,706 30.13% 25,579
Wells 10,005 75.30% 2,586 19.46% 696 5.24% 7,419 55.84% 13,287
White 6,893 68.27% 2,590 25.65% 614 6.08% 4,303 42.62% 10,097
Whitley 11,358 72.07% 3,379 21.44% 1,022 6.49% 7,979 50.63% 15,759
Totals1,557,28656.42%1,033,12637.43%169,9636.15%524,16018.99%2,760,375

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Analysis

Indiana Governor Mike Pence ran as Donald Trump's running-mate

Of the 2,760,375 votes cast, Donald Trump won 1,557,286 votes, Hillary Clinton won 1,033,126 votes and Gary Johnson won 133,993 votes.[3] Indiana has historically been the most conservative state in the Rust Belt. It went Democratic for Barack Obama in 2008—the first time it had done so since 1964, and only the fourth time since 1912. However, it has shifted back to being solidly Republican. Republican nominee Donald Trump carried the state by 19 points over Democrat Hillary Clinton,[14] thus gaining all of Indiana's 11 electoral votes.

Donald Trump's victory in the Hoosier State can be attributed to several factors. For one, Donald Trump had selected Indiana governor Mike Pence as his running mate, effectively eliminating any chance that Clinton could repeat Obama's surprise upset win in the state over John McCain eight years prior. Also, the state skews whiter and more Evangelical Protestant than the rest of the Midwest and the Rust Belt overall, which is a better demographic make-up for Republicans; Trump won white born-agains and evangelicals by a margin of 75–22.[15]

Suburban communities in the "doughnut counties" surrounding Indianapolis lean heavily Republican, and bolstered the Trump-Pence ticket in the state. Many of these voters are both fiscally and socially conservative. Another GOP stronghold that benefited Trump was the northeast region around Fort Wayne, which is a mix of suburban, exurban and rural areas, and is home to some of the most socially conservative voters in the nation.

In Southern Indiana along the Ohio River, especially around Evansville in Vanderburgh County, the electorate is dominated by "Butternut Democrats" - socially conservative, working-class white voters who were Democrats for generations but have been trending Republican in reaction to the increased social liberalism of national Democrats.[16] Such voters turned out for Trump in full force, inspired by his economic populism and by Pence's social conservatism.

Trump also won in Vigo County, home to Terre Haute and a noted bellwether; it has voted for the winner of every presidential election all but twice since 1892. Clinton, for her part, performed well in Indianapolis in Marion County and in Gary in Lake County, which has a large African American population and is considered part of the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Clinton won African Americans by a margin of 83–12. She also won St. Joseph and Monroe counties, home to the University of Notre Dame and Indiana University, respectively. Areas, where Clinton improved on Obama's performance in 2012, were predominantly located in well-educated suburbs of Indianapolis and areas surrounding large universities, where several socially moderate Republicans chose not to vote for Trump out of discomfort for his controversial views on race and women.

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Voter turnout in United States elections". Ballotpedia. Retrieved August 3, 2022.
  2. ↑ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
  3. 1 2 "2016 Presidential General Election Results".
  4. ↑ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Indiana: Trump vs. Clinton".
  5. ↑ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved February 17, 2019.
  6. ↑ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved February 17, 2019.
  7. ↑ "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved February 17, 2019.
  8. ↑ Todd, Chuck (November 7, 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved February 17, 2019.
  9. ↑ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved February 17, 2019.
  10. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  11. ↑ Sabato, Larry (November 7, 2016). "The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved February 12, 2019.
  12. ↑ "Candidate List". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved November 6, 2020.
  13. ↑ Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2016, 2012, and 2008 Retrieved 1 March 2020.
  14. ↑ "Indiana Election Results 2016". New York Times. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
  15. ↑ "2016 election results: Indiana Exit polls". CNN. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
  16. ↑ Cohen, Micah (October 19, 2012). "After Brief Role as Battleground, Indiana Exits, Stage Right". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
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