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| Elections in Massachusetts |
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Massachusetts portal |
The 2020 United States presidential election in Massachusetts was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Massachusetts voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Massachusetts has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]
Biden easily carried Massachusetts with a 33-point margin, the largest margin whereby any nominee had carried the state since Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide. Massachusetts was one of three states where Biden won every county, the other two being Rhode Island and Hawaii.
Massachusetts voted 29% more Democratic than the national average.
Primary elections
Presidential preference primaries were scheduled for March 3, 2020, for each of the political parties with state ballot access.
Democratic primary
Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden were among the declared major Democratic candidates. Elizabeth Warren, one of the two current senators from Massachusetts, formed an exploratory committee in December 2018 and declared her intention to run in February 2019.[4][5]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[7] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 473,861 | 33.41 | 37 |
| Bernie Sanders | 376,990 | 26.58 | 30 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 303,864 | 21.43 | 24 |
| Michael Bloomberg | 166,200 | 11.72 | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 1] | 38,400 | 2.71 | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 1] | 17,297 | 1.22 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 10,548 | 0.74 | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 6,923 | 0.49 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 1] | 6,762 | 0.48 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 2,708 | 0.19 | |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 1,257 | 0.09 | |
| John Delaney (withdrawn) | 675 | 0.05 | |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 617 | 0.04 | |
| Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 426 | 0.03 | |
| Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 305 | 0.02 | |
| All Others | 1,941 | 0.14 | |
| No Preference | 5,345 | 0.38 | |
| Blank ballots | 4,061 | 0.29 | |
| Total | 1,418,180 | 100% | 91 |
Republican primary
Massachusetts governor Charlie Baker declined to run, as did former Massachusetts governor and Utah senator Mitt Romney.[8][9][10][11]
| 2020 Massachusetts Republican presidential primary[12] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Popular vote | Delegates | |
| Count | Percentage | ||
| Donald Trump | 239,115 | 86.32 | 41 |
| Bill Weld | 25,425 | 9.18 | 0 |
| Joe Walsh (withdrawn) | 3,008 | 1.09 | 0 |
| Rocky De La Fuente | 675 | 0.24 | 0 |
| No Preference | 4,385 | 1.58 | 0 |
| Blank ballots | 2,242 | 0.81 | 0 |
| All Others | 2,152 | 0.78 | 0 |
| Total | 277,002 | 100% | 41 |
Libertarian primary
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 Election results by county[lower-alpha 2]
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A number of Libertarian candidates declared for the race, including New Hampshire State Representative Max Abramson, Adam Kokesh, Vermin Supreme and former Libertarian National Committee vice-chair Arvin Vohra.[13][14][15]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| All others | 958 | 25.0% |
| No preference | 804 | 21.0% |
| Vermin Supreme | 399 | 10.4% |
| Jacob Hornberger | 369 | 9.6% |
| Dan Behrman | 294 | 7.7% |
| Kim Ruff (withdrawn) | 224 | 5.8% |
| Arvin Vohra | 151 | 3.9% |
| Ken Armstrong | 145 | 3.8% |
| Jo Jorgensen | 141 | 3.7% |
| Sam Robb | 127 | 3.3% |
| Adam Kokesh | 125 | 3.3% |
| Max Abramson | 98 | 2.6% |
| Total | 3,835 | 100% |
Green primary
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | National delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dario Hunter | 224 | 16.9 | 2 |
| Howie Hawkins | 217 | 16.4 | 1 |
| Sedinam Kinamo Christin Moyowasifza-Curry | 141 | 10.6 | 1 |
| Kent Mesplay | 55 | 4.1 | 0 |
| David Rolde | 4 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Write-In | 369 | 27.8 | 0 |
| No Preference | 316 | 23.8 | 7 |
| Total | 1326 | 100.00% | 11 |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[18] | Safe D | September 10, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[19] | Safe D | September 4, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] | Safe D | July 14, 2020 |
| Politico[21] | Safe D | September 8, 2020 |
| RCP[22] | Safe D | August 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[23] | Safe D | July 26, 2020 |
| CNN[24] | Safe D | August 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[25] | Safe D | September 2, 2020 |
| 270towin[26] | Safe D | August 2, 2020 |
| ABC News[27] | Safe D | July 31, 2020 |
| NBC News[28] | Safe D | August 6, 2020 |
| 538[29] | Safe D | September 9, 2020 |
Polling
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 3] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win | October 17 – November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 65.0% | 28.7% | 6.3% | Biden +36.3 |
| RealClearPolitics | July 31 – August 27, 2020 | September 15, 2020 | 64.0% | 28.3% | 7.7% | Biden +35.7 |
| FiveThirtyEight | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 64.6% | 28.9% | 6.5% | Biden +35.8 |
| Average | 64.5% | 28.6% | 6.8% | Biden +35.9 | ||
- Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 4] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MassInc | Oct 23–30, 2020 | 929 (LV) | – | 28% | 62% | - | - | 8%[lower-alpha 5] | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 5,848 (LV) | – | 28% | 70% | - | - | – | – |
| YouGov/UMass Amherst | Oct 14–21, 2020 | 713 (LV) | – | 29% | 64% | - | - | 3%[lower-alpha 6] | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 2,655 (LV) | – | 32% | 66% | - | - | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 2,286 (LV) | – | 29% | 69% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Emerson College/WHDH | Aug 25–27, 2020 | 763 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 31% | 69% | - | - | – | – |
| MassINC/WBUR | Aug 6–9, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 27% | 63% | - | - | 5%[lower-alpha 7] | 4% |
| UMass/YouGov | Jul 31 – Aug 7, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 5.9% | 28% | 61% | - | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 2,509 (LV) | – | 26% | 72% | - | - | – | 2% |
| MassINC | Jul 17–20, 2020 | 797 (RV) | – | 23% | 55% | - | - | 10%[lower-alpha 8] | 12% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 1,091 (LV) | – | 27% | 71% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Emerson College/7 News | May 4–5, 2020 | 740 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 33%[lower-alpha 9] | 67% | - | - | – | – |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov | Apr 27 – May 1, 2020 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 30% | 58% | - | - | 7%[lower-alpha 10] | 4% |
| Emerson College Archived April 20, 2019, at the Wayback Machine | Apr 4–7, 2019 | 761 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 31% | 69% | - | - | – | – |
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Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
2,382,202 | 65.60 | +4.62 | |
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
1,167,202 | 32.14 | –0.67 | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
47,013 | 1.29 | –2.93 | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
18,658 | 0.51 | –0.95 | |
| Write-in | 16,327 | 0.45 | –1.07 | ||
| Total votes | 3,631,402 | 100% | +1.49 | ||
| Democratic win | |||||
Biden:
50-60% 60-70%
70-80% 80-90%
By county
| 2020 United States presidential election in Massachusetts (by county) [31] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Jo Jorgensen | Howie Hawkins | Margin | Total votes cast | |||
| # | % | # | % | # | # | # | % | ||
| Barnstable | 91,994 | 60.72% | 55,311 | 36.50% | 1,856 | 638 | 36,683 | 24.22% | 151,512 |
| Berkshire | 51,705 | 72.04% | 18,064 | 25.17% | 927 | 465 | 33,641 | 46.87% | 71,771 |
| Bristol | 153,377 | 54.51% | 119,872 | 42.90% | 3,667 | 1,427 | 33,505 | 11.61% | 281,364 |
| Dukes | 9,914 | 77.04% | 2,631 | 20.44% | 138 | 82 | 7,283 | 56.60% | 12,873 |
| Essex | 267,198 | 62.93% | 144,837 | 34.11% | 5,356 | 1,899 | 122,361 | 28.82% | 424,599 |
| Franklin | 30,030 | 69.83% | 11,201 | 26.05% | 692 | 380 | 18,829 | 43.78% | 43,003 |
| Hampden | 125,948 | 57.04% | 87,318 | 39.54% | 2,971 | 1,166 | 38,630 | 17.50% | 220,793 |
| Hampshire | 63,362 | 71.73% | 22,281 | 25.22% | 1,086 | 768 | 41,081 | 46.51% | 88,332 |
| Middlesex | 617,196 | 71.00% | 226,956 | 26.11% | 10,649 | 4,484 | 390,240 | 44.89% | 869,347 |
| Nantucket | 5,241 | 71.42% | 1,914 | 26.08% | 81 | 41 | 3,327 | 45.34% | 7,338 |
| Norfolk | 273,312 | 66.49% | 125,294 | 30.48% | 5,191 | 1,753 | 148,018 | 36.01% | 411,042 |
| Plymouth | 173,630 | 57.14% | 121,227 | 39.89% | 4,310 | 1,324 | 52,403 | 17.25% | 303,870 |
| Suffolk | 270,522 | 80.22% | 58,613 | 17.38% | 2,959 | 1,695 | 211,909 | 62.84% | 337,240 |
| Worcester | 248,773 | 57.20% | 171,683 | 39.47% | 7,130 | 2,536 | 77,090 | 17.73% | 434,921 |
By congressional district
Biden won all nine congressional districts, breaking 60% of the vote in eight of them.
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 36.9% | 61.1% | Richard Neal |
| 2nd | 36% | 61.8% | Jim McGovern |
| 3rd | 34.6% | 63.4% | Lori Trahan |
| 4th | 33.7% | 64.5% | Joe Kennedy III |
| Jake Auchincloss | |||
| 5th | 23.9% | 74.5% | Katherine Clark |
| 6th | 35.6% | 62.6% | Seth Moulton |
| 7th | 13.3% | 85.3% | Ayanna Pressley |
| 8th | 32.2% | 66.2% | Stephen Lynch |
| 9th | 40.3% | 57.9% | Bill Keating |
Analysis
Massachusetts has been a Democratic-leaning state since 1928, and a Democratic stronghold since 1960, and has maintained extremely large Democratic margins since 1996. This remained true in 2020, with Massachusetts being one of six states (along with Hawaii, Vermont, Maryland, California, and New York) to give Biden over 60% of the vote. Massachusetts is ethnically diverse, highly urbanized, highly educated, and among the least religious states.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Massachusetts came from college-educated voters, which he won with 74% of the vote, which carries particular weight in Massachusetts, as the state contains the highest proportion of graduates in the country.[32] Trump's slip among suburban white voters led Biden to carry almost every municipality in the Greater Boston area by at least 60% or more, while Trump carried only several towns on the South Shore and in Central Massachusetts. Biden won 301 of the 351 municipalities.[33] Biden swept all demographic groups, garnering 63% of whites, 84% of Latinos, 58% of Catholics, 56% of Protestants, and 86% of Jewish voters. Additionally, Biden won 52% of whites without a college degree within the state, one of Trump's strongest demographics elsewhere in the country.[32] While Biden overwhelmingly carried Latino voters in the state, Trump improved on his 2016 performance in heavily Hispanic cities such as Lawrence, Chelsea, and Holyoke.[34] Trump had the worst vote share in Massachusetts of any Republican nominee since Bob Dole in 1996, and slightly underperformed George W. Bush's 32.5% vote share in 2000.
Massachusetts was one of five states in the nation in which Biden's victory margin was larger than 1 million raw votes, the others being California, Maryland, New York and Illinois.
See also
Notes
- 1 2 3 Candidate withdrew after early voting started, but before the date of the election.
- ↑ Excluding write-ins, which were not tallied.
- ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- 1 2 3 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ↑ "Some other candidate" with 5%; "Refused" with 3%; would not vote with no voters
- ↑ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
- ↑ "Another candidate" with 2%; "Refused" with 3%
- ↑ "Some other candidate" with 7%; would not vote with 3%
- ↑ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ↑ "Another candidate" with 7%
References
- ↑ "MA SOC Voter Turnout Statistics".
- ↑ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ↑ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ↑ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ↑ Herndon, Astead W.; Burns, Alexander (December 31, 2018). "Elizabeth Warren Announces Iowa Trip as She Starts Running for President in 2020". The New York Times.
- ↑ "2020 President Democratic Primary". Mass.gov. Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Archived from the original on April 9, 2020. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
- ↑ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Massachusetts Democrat". Retrieved July 4, 2020.
- ↑ Markos, Mary (November 8, 2018). "Charlie Baker 'absolutely' staying put". Boston Herald. Retrieved November 9, 2018.
- ↑ Burr, Thomas (February 16, 2018). "Mitt Romney: On school shootings, immigration and when he'll challenge Trump. A Q&A with Utah's new Senate candidate". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved February 18, 2018.
- ↑ Heilbrunn, Jacob (January 2, 2018). "Donald Trump's Biggest Fear: A Romney 2020 Primary Challenge". The National Interest. Retrieved January 2, 2018.
- ↑ Keller, Jon (January 2, 2018). "Keller @ Large: Could Romney Be Trump's Worst Nightmare?". WBZ-TV. Retrieved January 2, 2018.
- ↑ "2020 President Republican Primary". Mass.gov. Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Archived from the original on April 9, 2020. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
- ↑ Sullivan, Max (July 28, 2019). "Seabrook's Abramson seeks Libertarian presidential nomination". The Portsmouth Herald. Archived from the original on December 29, 2020. Retrieved December 22, 2019.
- ↑ Limitone, Julia (June 18, 2019). "Presidential candidate vows to abolish federal government on day 1, then resign". Fox Business. Retrieved December 22, 2019.
- ↑ Clark, Bob (November 12, 2019). "Libertarians Offer Voters Nothing New". Olean Times Herald. Retrieved December 22, 2019.
- ↑ "Massachusetts Election Statistics: 2020 Libertarian Primary". Massachusetts Secretary of State. March 3, 2020.
- ↑ https://electionstats.state.ma.us/elections/view/135904/%5B%5D
- ↑ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ↑ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ↑ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ↑ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ↑ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- ↑ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ↑ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- ↑ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- ↑ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- ↑ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ↑ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- ↑ "2020 President General Election". Massachusetts Secretary of State. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
- ↑ "PD43+ » Search Elections".
- 1 2 "Massachusetts Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- ↑ "Map: See How Your Town Or City Voted In The 2020 Election". www.wbur.org. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
- ↑ "One place Trump gained in Mass.: Heavily Latino cities". November 6, 2020.
Further reading
- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Massachusetts
- "A farmer made a giant Biden-Harris sign out of hay bales. It was set on fire the next day", Washingtonpost.com, October 12, 2020. (About incident in Dalton, Massachusetts)
External links
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Massachusetts", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Massachusetts: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Massachusetts". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Massachusetts at Ballotpedia
