2024 European Parliament election

6–9 June 2024

All 720 seats to the European Parliament
361 seats needed for a majority
 
EPP Summit, 24 March 2022, Brussels (51958439704).jpg
Conclusion of the European Council meeting - 51988070881.jpg
Conclusion of the European Council meeting - 51988629675.jpg
Leader Manfred Weber Iratxe García Stéphane Séjourné
Alliance EPP Group S&D Renew
Leader's seat Germany Spain France
Last election 187 seats, 21.0% 147 seats, 18.5% 98 seats, 13.0%

 
MEPs call for the protection of fundamental values in the EU and worldwide - 51297197687.jpg
Terry REINTKE - English part - Citizens’ Corner debate on minimum wage- Do we need minimum wages in the EU? (17230480998).jpg
Marco Zanni 2022 (cropped).jpg
Nicola Procaccini, June 2023.jpg
Conclusion of the European Council meeting - 51987066887.jpg
Leader Philippe Lamberts
Terry Reintke
Marco Zanni Ryszard Legutko
Nicola Procaccini
Alliance Greens/EFA ID ECR
Leader's seat Belgium (French)
Germany
North-West Italy Southern Italy
Lesser Poland and Świętokrzyskie
Last election 67 seats, 11.7% 76 seats, 10.8% 62 seats, 8.2%

 
Manon Aubry (48951348941).jpg
Martin Schirdewan (48951349431).jpg
Leader Manon Aubry
Martin Schirdewan
Alliance The Left
Leader's seat France
Germany
Last election 39 seats, 6.5%

Incumbent European Commission

Von der Leyen Commission (EPP)
EPP GroupS&DRenew



The 2024 European Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 to 9 June 2024.[1] This will be the tenth parliamentary election since the first direct elections in 1979, and the first European Parliament election after Brexit.[2][3]

Overview

This term's election is expected to be one of the more contentious elections in the history of the European Parliament given the rise of far right parties in polling.[4][5] The EPP has raised eyebrows among some commentators given its efforts to charm parties in the ECR to create a broad conservative block[6] that could upset the long standing balance which has seen the EPP share power with the center-left S&D and the centrist Renew Group.[7] However, EPP in the previous decade had also taken up some very centrist, even progressive positions, and this shift signifies a return to its moderate conservative roots.[8]

Electoral system

Attempts at electoral reform

In June 2018, the Council agreed to change the EU electoral law and to reform old laws from the 1976 Electoral Act as amended in 2002.[9] New provisions included a mandatory 2% threshold for countries with more than 35 seats and rules to prevent voters from voting in multiple countries.[10] After the Act was adopted by the Council following consent given by the European Parliament in July 2018, not all member states ratified the Act prior to the 2019 elections, which took place under the old rules. As of 2023, the reform has yet to be ratified by Cyprus and Spain;[11] Germany only ratified in summer 2023.[12]

On 3 May 2022, the European Parliament voted to propose a new electoral law, which would contain provisions for electing 28 seats on transnational lists.[13] As of 2023, this reform has not been approved by the Council, which must approve it unanimously.[14]

Apportionment

As a result of Brexit, 27 seats from the British delegation were distributed to other countries in January 2020 (those elected in 2019, but not yet seated took their seats).[15] The other 46 seats were abolished with the total number of MEPs decreasing from 751 to 705 after that.[16]

A report in the European Parliament proposed in February 2023 and passed in June 2023 to modify the apportionment in the European Parliament and increase the number of MEPs again in order to adapt to the development of the population and preserve degressive proportionality.[17][18] The European Council will, by unanimity, take the final decision on the size of the European Parliament and each national seat quota. On 26 July 2023, the Council reached a preliminary agreement, which would increase the size of the European Parliament to 720 seats.[19] On 13 September 2023, the European Parliament consented to this decision,[20] which was adopted by the European Council on 22 September 2023.[21]

Main candidates

Spitzenkandidat system

In the run-up to the 2014 European Parliament elections a new informal system was unveiled for the selection of the European Commission President dictating that whichever party group gained the most seats would see their lead candidate become President of the Commission.[22] In 2014, the candidate of the largest group, Jean-Claude Juncker, was eventually nominated and elected as Commission President.[23] European party leaders aimed to reintroduce the system in 2019, with them selecting lead candidates and organizing a televised debate between those candidates.[24] In the aftermath of the election German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen was chosen as Commission President, even though she had not been a candidate prior to the election, while Manfred Weber, lead candidate for the EPP, which had gained the most seats, was not nominated.[25] Following the non-application of the system in 2019, some have called for the system to be revived, in the upcoming elections.[26][27][28]

As of 2023, the EPP[29] EGP,[30] and PEL[31] have announced their intensions to nominate a main candidate in 2024, while ECR and ID have rejected doing so.[32]

Alliance of Liberals and Democrats

During the 20-21 March 2024 extraordinary congress in Brussels, the ALDE party will elect its presidential candidate and will adopt its election programme.[33]

European Green Party

During the 2-4 February 2024 congress in Lyon, the European Green Party will elect its two presidential candidates.[34][35]

European Free Alliance

In October 2023, the congress of the European Free Alliance elected Maylis Roßberg and Raül Romeva as its presidential candidates, and adopted its election programme.[36][37]

Volt Europa

On 27 November, Volt Europa adopted its European election programme at its General Assembly in Paris. It is still unclear when the party will elect its top candidates.[38]

Electoral system by country

Member state Seats Date Voting age Compulsory voting Absentee voting Age of candidacy Constituencies Threshold[lower-alpha 1] Electoral system[39] Candidate selection[39]
Austria Austria 20(+1) 9 June[40] 16 No By post 18 1 4% D'Hondt Semi-open list
Belgium Belgium 22(+1) 9 June[41] 16[42] Yes By post and by proxy 21 3 5% D'Hondt Semi-open list
Bulgaria Bulgaria 17 TBD 18 No 21 1 ~5.9%[lower-alpha 2][43] Largest remainder[lower-alpha 3] Semi-open list
Croatia Croatia 12 9 June[44] 18 No 18 1 5% D'Hondt Semi-open list
Cyprus Cyprus 6 9 June[45] 18 Yes 21 1 1.8%[46] Largest remainder[lower-alpha 3] Open list
Czech Republic Czech Republic 21 7–8 June[47] 18 No 21 1 5% D'Hondt Semi-open list
Denmark Denmark 15(+1) 9 June[48] 18 No By post 18 1 D'Hondt[lower-alpha 4] Open list
Estonia Estonia 7 9 June[49] 18 No By post and online 21 1 D'Hondt Open list
Finland Finland 15(+1) 9 June[50] 18 No By post 18 1 D'Hondt Open list
France France 81(+2) 9 June[51] 18 No By proxy 18 1 5% D'Hondt Closed list
Germany Germany 96 9 June[52] 16 No By post 18 1[lower-alpha 5] Sainte-Laguë Closed list
Greece Greece 21 9 June[53] 17 Yes 25 1 3% Largest remainder Open list
Hungary Hungary 21 9 June[54] 18 No By post 18 1 5% D'Hondt Closed list
Republic of Ireland Ireland 14(+1) TBD 18 No 21 3 N/A Single transferable vote
Italy Italy 76 9 June[55] 18 No 25 5[lower-alpha 6] 4% Largest remainder[lower-alpha 3] Open list
Latvia Latvia 9(+1) 8 June[56] 18 No By post 21 1 5% Sainte-Laguë Open list
Lithuania Lithuania 11 9 June[57] 18 No By post 21 1 5% Largest remainder[lower-alpha 3] Open list
Poland Poland 53(+1) 9 June 18 No 21 13[lower-alpha 6] 5% D'Hondt Open list
Luxembourg Luxembourg 6 9 June[58] 18 Yes By post 18 1 D'Hondt Panachage
Malta Malta 6 8 June[59] 16 No 18 1 N/A Single transferable vote
Portugal Portugal 21 TBD 18 No 18 1 D'Hondt Closed list
Romania Romania 33 9 June[60] 18 No 23 1 5% D'Hondt Closed list
Slovakia Slovakia 15(+1) 8 June[61] 18 No 21 1 5% Largest remainder[lower-alpha 7] Semi-open list
Slovenia Slovenia 9(+1) 9 June[62] 18 No By post 18 1 D'Hondt Semi-open list
Spain Spain 61(+2) TBC 18 No By post 18 1 D'Hondt Closed list
Netherlands Netherlands 31(+2) 6 June[63] 18 No By post and by proxy 18 1 ~3.2%[lower-alpha 2][64] D'Hondt Semi-open list
Sweden Sweden 21 9 June[65] 18 No By post 18 1 4% Modified Sainte-Laguë Semi-open list

MEPs not standing for re-election

Name Country Party Date announced Source
Jan Zahradil Czech Republic Czechia Civic Democratic Party (Czech Republic) 5 June 2023 [66]
Malin Björk Sweden Sweden Left Party 24 August 2023 [67]
David Lega Sweden Sweden Christian Democrats 13 October 2023 [68]
Jakop Dalunde Sweden Sweden Green Party 18 October 2023 [69]
Frances Fitzgerald Republic of Ireland Ireland Fine Gael 6 November 2023 [70]
Carina Ohlsson Sweden Sweden Social Democrats 14 November 2023 [71]
Erik Bergkvist Sweden Sweden Social Democrats 14 November 2023 [71]
Deirdre Clune Republic of Ireland Ireland Fine Gael 15 November 2023 [72]
Samira Rafaela Netherlands Netherlands Democrats 66 21 December 2023 [73]
Heidi Hautala Finland Finland Green League 9 January 2024 [74]

Campaign

The future of Ursula von der Leyen

The upcoming elections mean the future of the Von der Leyen Commission is uncertain. Should the spitzenkandidat system be used in 2024, Ursula von der Leyen, the current European Commission President, may face an uphill battle to make it to a second term. Although Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz has hinted he would support von der Leyen should she choose to run for the position again,[75] the coalition has also agreed to support the spitzenkandidat system.[76] This poses a challenge to von der Leyen's candidacy as this gives room to Manfred Weber, the leader of the EPP in the EP, and fellow German CDU/CSU member, to propose alternative candidates, such as Roberta Metsola, or to demand von der Leyen run for Parliament to secure the support of her party.[77] As of January 2024, von der Leyen has yet to announce whether she aims for a second term as Commission President.

The future of Charles Michel

In January 2024, Charles Michel announced he would step down as president of the European Council to run for the European Parliament instead.[78] This means European Union leaders would potentially discuss his successor in the summer.[79] His mandate was set to expire in November 2024.[80]

Opinion polling and seat projections

Seats

The chart below depicts opinion polls of the number of seats for the groups in the EU Parliament using a 6-poll moving average.

The chart below depicts opinion polls of the popular vote share for the groups in the EU Parliament using a 6-poll moving average.

Controversies

Conflict with Portuguese national holiday

The dates chosen for the elections conflict with a long weekend in Portugal, where Portugal Day, a national holiday, is celebrated on 10 June, which is expected to suppress turnout.[81] Despite an attempt by Portuguese leaders to find a compromise, no change was made to the default date of 6–9 June,[82] which required unanimity to be changed.

Qatargate

The ongoing Qatargate corruption scandal, which began in December 2022, has destabilized the European Parliament following the arrest of several MEPs including Marc Tarabella; Andrea Cozzolino and Eva Kaili which was stripped of her vice presidency. Other suspects in the case include Francesco Giorgi, the parliamentary assistant of MEP Andrea Cozzolino, Pier Antonio Panzeri, founder of the Fight Impunity NGO; Niccolo Figa-Talamanca, head of the No Peace Without Justice NGO; and Luca Visentini, head of the International Trade Union Confederation.[83][84]

Hungary

The European Parliament views Hungary as a "hybrid regime of electoral autocracy" since 2022 and considers Hungary according to Article 7.1 of the Treaty on European Union in clear risk of a serious breach of the Treaty on European Union.[85]

Notes

  1. This is the legal threshold. The share of the vote needed to win a seat may be higher than this in some countries.
  2. 1 2 1 divided by the number of seats.
  3. 1 2 3 4 Hare quota with residual fit by largest remainders
  4. Denmark allows for electoral alliances between separate party lists.
  5. Seats are apportioned to parties nationally. A party can choose to only stand in some of the 16 states and have its national seat count be subapportioned to those states. Only the CDU and the CSU have done this in previous elections.
  6. 1 2 Seats are apportioned to parties nationally, then subapportioned to the constituencies.
  7. Droop quota with residual fit by largest remainders

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Further reading

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