2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska

November 3, 2020

All 3 Nebraska seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Last election 3 0
Seats won 3 0
Seat change Steady Steady
Popular vote 585,234 326,018
Percentage 62.17% 34.63%
Swing Increase 0.14% Decrease 3.34%

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the state of Nebraska, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

Overview

District Republican Democratic Others Total Result
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1189,00659.52%119,62237.67%8,9382.81%317,566100.0%Republican hold
District 2171,07150.77%155,70646.21%10,1853.02%336,962100.0%Republican hold
District 3225,15778.51%50,69017.68%10,9233.81%286,770100.0%Republican hold
Total585,23462.17%326,01834.63%30,0463.19%941,298100.0%
Popular vote
Republican
62.17%
Democratic
34.63%
Other
3.19%
House seats
Republican
100.00%

District 1

2020 Nebraska's 1st congressional district election

 
Nominee Jeff Fortenberry Kate Bolz
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 189,006 119,622
Percentage 59.5% 37.7%

Fortenberry:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Bolz:      40–50%

U.S. Representative before election

Jeff Fortenberry
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Jeff Fortenberry
Republican

The 1st district is located in eastern Nebraska surrounding Omaha and its suburbs, taking in Lincoln, Bellevue, Fremont, and Norfolk. The incumbent was Republican Jeff Fortenberry, who was re-elected with 60.4% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared
Declined
  • Nicholas Oviatt, part-time consultant[3]

Results

Republican primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jeff Fortenberry (incumbent) 84,017 100.0
Total votes 84,017 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared
Endorsements
Kate Bolz
Newspapers
Organizations
Barbara "Babs" Ramsey
Organizations
  • DUH! Demand Universal Healthcare[13]
  • Freethought Equality Fund PAC[14]
  • Nebraska Secular Democrats[15]
  • Progressive Rising[16]
  • Rose Caucus[17]
  • Vote Pro Choice[18]

Results

Democratic primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kate Bolz 43,400 77.6
Democratic Barbara Ramsey 12,497 22.4
Total votes 55,897 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Libertarian primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Dennis B. Grace 1,047 100.0
Total votes 1,047 100.0

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Safe R July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[21] Safe R June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe R July 2, 2020
Politico[23] Likely R September 9, 2020
Daily Kos[24] Safe R June 3, 2020
RCP[25] Safe R June 9, 2020
Niskanen[26] Safe R June 7, 2020

Results

Nebraska's 1st congressional district, 2020[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jeff Fortenberry (incumbent) 189,006 59.5
Democratic Kate Bolz 119,622 37.7
Libertarian Dennis B. Grace 8,938 2.8
Total votes 317,566 100.0
Republican hold

District 2

2020 Nebraska's 2nd congressional district election

 
Nominee Don Bacon Kara Eastman
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 171,071 155,706
Percentage 50.8% 46.2%

Bacon:      60–70%
Eastman:      40–50%

U.S. Representative before election

Don Bacon
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Don Bacon
Republican

The 2nd district covers the Omaha metropolitan area, including all of Douglas County, home to the city of Omaha, and suburban parts of western Sarpy County, including La Vista and Papillon. The incumbent was Republican Don Bacon, who was re-elected with 51.0% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Kara Eastman was the Democratic nominee.[28] She started a nonprofit consulting company in 2019, and was previously the executive director of the Omaha Healthy Kids Alliance.[29] That organization focuses on reducing lead poisoning, and Lee Terry described it as a nonpartisan project.[30] She is a former member of the Board of Governors of Metropolitan Community College.[31]

President Donald Trump endorsed Bacon, and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden endorsed Eastman.[32]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Republican primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Don Bacon (incumbent) 68,531 90.6
Republican Paul Anderson 7,106 9.4
Total votes 75,637 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew
  • Morgann Freeman, part-time communications consultant and activist[38] (endorsed Ashford)
  • Dustin Sedoris, U.S. Marine Corps veteran[39] (endorsed Eastman)[40]
Declined

Endorsements

Ann Ashford
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State officials
Individuals
Organizations
  • LEAP Forward Project[51]
Kara Eastman
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Parties
  • Cannabis Rights Party of Nebraska[63]

Results

Democratic primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kara Eastman 45,953 62.1
Democratic Ann Ashford 23,059 31.2
Democratic Gladys Harrison 4,920 6.7
Total votes 73,932 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Libertarian primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Tyler Schaeffer 964 100.0
Total votes 964 100.0

General election

Debate

2020 Nebraska's 2nd congressional district debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Don Bacon Kara Eastman
1 Oct. 12, 2020 Nebraska Public Media Dennis Kellogg YouTube P P

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[65] Tossup July 16, 2020
Inside Elections[66] Tilt D (flip) October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Lean R November 2, 2020
Politico[23] Tossup September 9, 2020
Daily Kos[24] Lean R June 3, 2020
RCP[25] Tossup June 9, 2020
Niskanen[26] Tossup June 7, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Don
Bacon (R)
Kara
Eastman (D)
Tyler
Schaeffer (L)
Other Undecided
UNLV Lee Business School October 30 – November 2, 2020 191 (LV) ± 7% 47% 46%
Change Research October 29 – November 2, 2020 920 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 48% 2% 0%[lower-alpha 2] 2%
Emerson College October 29–30, 2020 806 (LV) ± 3.5% 50%[lower-alpha 3] 47% 2%
FM3 Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] October 1–4, 2020 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 45% 47% 6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 25–27, 2020 420 (LV) ± 5.3% 45% 43% 3% 1%[lower-alpha 4] 8%[lower-alpha 5]
Global Strategy Group (D) Archived September 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 2] September 14–16, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 45% 4% 7%[lower-alpha 5]
Global Strategy Group (D) Archived September 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 2] July 27–29, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 42% 4% 7%[lower-alpha 5]
GQR Research (D)[upper-alpha 3] June 30 – July 5, 2020 502 (LV) ± 4.37% 49% 50%
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D)[upper-alpha 4] May 7–10, 2020 448 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 48%
GQR Research (D)[upper-alpha 3] September 9–12, 2019 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 50% 49%
Hypothetical polling
with Ann Ashford
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Don
Bacon (R)
Ann
Ashford (D)
Undecided
GQR Research (D) September 9–12, 2019 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 53% 46%
with Gladys Harrison
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Don
Bacon (R)
Gladys
Harrison (D)
Undecided
GQR Research (D) September 9–12, 2019 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 55% 44%

Endorsements

Don Bacon (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Federal officials
State officials
Local officials
Organizations
Individuals
Kara Eastman (D)
Former US Executive Branch officials
Federal officials
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations

Results

Despite Democratic Presidential Nominee Joe Biden winning the district by 6.5 points, Bacon defeated Eastman by 4.6 points. Eastman underperformed Biden by over 11 points.[103]

Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, 2020[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Don Bacon (incumbent) 171,071 50.8
Democratic Kara Eastman 155,706 46.2
Libertarian Tyler Schaeffer 10,185 3.0
Total votes 336,962 100.0
Republican hold

By county

CountyDon Bacon
Republican
Kara Eastman
Democratic
Tyler Schaeffer
Libertarian
Total
votes
 % #  % #  % #
Douglas 48.20% 132,230 48.79% 133,827 3.01% 8,252 274,309
Sarpy 61.99% 38,841 34.92% 21,879 3.09% 1,933 62,653

District 3

2020 Nebraska's 3rd congressional district election

 
Nominee Adrian Smith Mark Elworth Jr.
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 225,157 50,690
Percentage 78.5% 17.7%

Smith:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%

U.S. Representative before election

Adrian Smith
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Adrian Smith
Republican

The 3rd district covers most of the rural western part of the state, and includes Grand Island, Kearney, Hastings, North Platte, Alliance, and Scottsbluff. The incumbent was Republican Adrian Smith, who was re-elected with 76.7% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Larry Lee Scott Bolinger,[104] veteran, graduate from UNO, business owner in property preservation, author of 16 books, and self-defense instructor[2]
  • William Elfgren, grocery worker[2][105]
  • Arron Kowalski, farmer[2]
  • Justin Moran, architectural draftsman, firefighter and welder[2]
  • Adrian Smith, incumbent U.S. representative[106]

Results

Republican primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Adrian Smith (incumbent) 96,260 82.6
Republican Arron Kowalski 6,424 5.5
Republican Justin Moran 6,374 5.5
Republican William Elfgren 4,063 3.5
Republican Larry Lee Scott Bolinger 3,389 2.9
Total votes 116,510 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Democratic primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Elworth, Jr. 26,772 100.0
Total votes 26,776 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Dustin C. Hobbs, reality television show participant[2][108]

Results

Libertarian primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Dustin C. Hobbs 561 100.0
Total votes 561 100.0

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Safe R July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[21] Safe R June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe R July 2, 2020
Politico[23] Safe R September 9, 2020
Daily Kos[24] Safe R June 3, 2020
RCP[25] Safe R June 9, 2020
Niskanen[26] Safe R June 7, 2020

Results

Nebraska's 3rd congressional district, 2020[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Adrian Smith (incumbent) 225,157 78.5
Democratic Mark Elworth Jr. 50,690 17.7
Libertarian Dustin C. Hobbs 10,923 3.8
Total votes 286,770 100.0
Republican hold

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Did not vote and "Don't recall" with 0%
  3. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. Would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%
  5. 1 2 3 Includes "Refused"
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates.
  2. 1 2 Poll conducted for the House Majority PAC.
  3. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Eastman's campaign
  4. Poll sponsored by the DCCC.

References

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  104. Larry Lee Scott Bolinger
  105. "William Elfgren". Ballotpedia. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  106. "Adrian Smith Files for Re-Election to Third District Congressional Seat". KTIC Radio. January 24, 2020. Retrieved January 25, 2020.
  107. Winger, Richard (March 12, 2020). "Nebraska Legal Marijuana Now Party Leader Wins Democratic Congressional Nomination". Ballot Access News. Retrieved April 17, 2020.
  108. Service, Jeff Bahr / World-Herald News (December 18, 2015). "Nebraska man unhappy with portrayal on TV show 'Naked and Afraid'". Omaha.com. Retrieved February 9, 2020.
Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates
Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates
Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates
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