2020 United States presidential election in Virginia
November 3, 2020
Turnout75.07 Increase 5.8 pp[1]
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 13 0
Popular vote 2,415,216 1,960,103
Percentage 54.15% 43.95%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

 Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Virginia was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a state Biden would win, or a likely blue state. On the day of the election, Biden won Virginia with 54.15% of the vote, and by a margin of 10.2%, the best performance for a Democratic presidential candidate since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944.[4] Trump became the first Republican incumbent to consecutively lose Virginia since William Howard Taft and Biden became the first Democratic nominee to win Chesterfield County and Lynchburg City since 1948, Virginia Beach City since 1964, James City County since 1968, and Stafford County since 1976.[5] He also flipped Chesapeake City back to the Democratic Party. Trump flipped no counties or independent cities in the state. Nevertheless, Biden became the first Democrat since 1992 to win without Buckingham County and Essex County, and the first since 1960 to win without Westmoreland County, a notable bellwether. He was the first Democrat to ever win without Caroline County, Nelson County, or Covington.

The diversification of Northern Virginia as well as sliding suburban support for Republicans allowed Biden to win the once-key battleground state without actively campaigning in it. Biden won Henrico County, Loudoun County, Prince William County, and Fairfax County with 63.7%, 61.5%, 63.6%, and 69.9%, respectively; all four were former suburban bastions of the Republican Party in Virginia, the first outside Richmond and the others in Northern Virginia. All four had voted Republican in every election from 1968 through 2000. In Arlington County, a closer DC-area suburban county that had turned Democratic several decades earlier, Biden won with 80.6% of the vote, becoming the first nominee of either party in more than a century to do so. Biden's combined margin in Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun, and Arlington Counties was greater than his statewide margin of victory. Crucially for his performance in Northern Virginia, Biden carried government workers by 18%.[6]

Primary elections

Canceled Republican primary

The Virginia Republican Party is one of several state GOP parties that have officially canceled their respective primaries and caucuses.[7] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[8][9] At the Virginia State Republican Convention, originally scheduled for May 2020 but postponed to August 15, 2020, the state party will formally bind all 48 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[7][10][11]

Democratic primary

The Virginia Democratic primary took place on March 3, 2020, as part of the "Super Tuesday" suite of elections.

Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders were among the major declared candidates.[12]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Virginia Democratic presidential primary § VAresults.[edit]
county
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Biden—70–80%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Sanders—40–50%
congressional district
Popular vote share by congressional district
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
2020 Virginia Democratic presidential primary[13][lower-alpha 1]
Candidate Votes  % Delegates[15]
Joe Biden 705,501 53.30 67
Bernie Sanders 306,388 23.15 31
Elizabeth Warren 142,546 10.77 1
Michael Bloomberg 128,030 9.67
Tulsi Gabbard 11,288 0.85
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 2] 11,199 0.85
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 2] 8,414 0.64
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 3] 3,361 0.25
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 1,910 0.14
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 2] 1,472 0.11
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 3] 1,437 0.11
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 902 0.07
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 691 0.05
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 3] 370 0.03
Write-in votes 184 0.01
Total 1,323,693 100% 99

Green primary

The Green Party of Virginia conducted an online ranked choice primary from April 20 to April 26, 2020.[16]

2020 Green Party of Virginia primary[16]
Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Howie Hawkins 42 62.7% 42 62.7% 43 64.2% 44 65.7%
Dario Hunter 17 25.4% 18 26.9% 21 31.3% 23 34.3%
Kent Mesplay 3 4.5% 3 4.5% 3 4.5% Eliminated
Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry 2 3.0% 2 3.0% Eliminated
Jill Stein (write-in) 2 3.0% Eliminated
Jesse Ventura (write-in) 1 1.5% Eliminated
Total votes 67 100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[17] Likely D November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[18] Solid D November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] Likely D November 3, 2020
Politico[20] Likely D November 3, 2020
RCP[21] Lean D November 3, 2020
Niskanen[22] Safe D November 3, 2020
CNN[23] Solid D November 3, 2020
The Economist[24] Likely D November 3, 2020
CBS News[25] Likely D November 3, 2020
270towin[26] Likely D November 3, 2020
ABC News[27] Solid D November 3, 2020
NPR[28] Likely D September 16, 2020
NBC News[29] Likely D November 3, 2020
538[30] Solid D November 3, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
270 to Win October 15–31, 2020 November 3, 2020 52.8% 41.0% 6.2% Biden +11.8
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 53.7% 41.9% 4.4% Biden +11.8
Average 53.1% 40.5% 5.3% Biden +11.8

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 5]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Howie
Hawkins
Green		 Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 4,550 (LV) ± 2% 41%[lower-alpha 6] 57% - - – –
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 467 (LV) ± 6.4% 39% 59% 2% 1% – –
Data for Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 690 (LV) ± 3.7% 43% 54% 1% 0% 1%[lower-alpha 7] –
Roanoke College Oct 23–29, 2020 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 53% 2% - 1% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 7,663 (LV) – 43% 55% - - – –
Christopher Newport University Oct 15–27, 2020 908 (LV) ± 3.4% 41% 53% - - 2%[lower-alpha 8] 4%
Swayable Oct 23–26, 2020 351 (LV) ± 5.2% 44% 55% 1% - – –
Virginia Commonwealth University Oct 13–22, 2020 709 (LV) ± 4.93% 39% 51% - - 2%[lower-alpha 9] 8%[lower-alpha 10]
Schar School/Washington Post Oct 13–19, 2020 908 (LV) ± 4% 41% 52% 3% - 0%[lower-alpha 11] 4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 11–14, 2020 1,231 (LV) ± 3.1% 42% 55% - - 3%[lower-alpha 12] 1%
Reconnect Research/Roanoke College Sep 30 – Oct 12, 2020 602 (LV) – 39%[lower-alpha 13] 54% 4% - - 4%
Survey Monkey/Tableau Sep 15 – Oct 12, 2020 4,248 (LV) – 43% 55% - - – 2%
Cygnal/Gade for Virginia[upper-alpha 1] Oct 9–11, 2020 607 (LV) – 42% 51% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 2,882 (LV) – 42% 56% - - – 2%
Cygnal/Gade for Virginia[upper-alpha 1] Sep 22–25, 2020 600 (LV) – 41% 52% - - – –
Christopher Newport University Sep 9–21, 2020 796 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 48% - - 2%[lower-alpha 14] 7%
Virginia Commonwealth University Archived September 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Aug 28 – Sep 7, 2020 693 (LV) ± 6.22% 39% 52% - - 1%[lower-alpha 15] 8%[lower-alpha 10]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 2,626 (LV) – 41% 57% - - – 2%
Roanoke College Aug 9–22, 2020 566 (LV) ± 4.1% 39% 53% - - 3%[lower-alpha 16] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 3,178 (LV) – 43% 55% - - – 2%
Morning Consult Jul 17–26, 2020 1,156 (LV) ± 2.9% 41% 52% - - – –
Virginia Commonwealth University Jul 11–19, 2020 725 (LV) ± 6.2% 39% 50% - - 1% 10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 1,619 (LV) – 42% 57% - - – 1%
Morning Consult May 17–26, 2020 1,148 (LV) – 42%[lower-alpha 17] 52% - - – –
Roanoke College May 3–16, 2020 563 (LV) ± 4.1% 39% 51% - - – –
Virginia Commonwealth University Mar 25 – Apr 8, 2020 812 (A) ± 4.5% 41% 51% - - – 8%
Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 38% 45% - - – –
Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 48% - - – –
Mason-Dixon Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 49% - - – 6%
Virginia Commonwealth University Dec 2–13, 2019 728 (LV) ± 5.1% 46% 49% - - – 5%[lower-alpha 10]
Virginia Commonwealth University Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0% 44% 52% - - – 4%[lower-alpha 10]
University of Mary Washington/Research America Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 37% 55% - - 1% 4%
Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 5]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 38% 43%
Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 46%

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 5]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Undecided
Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 38% 41% –
Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 47% –
Mason-Dixon Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 45% 8%

with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 5]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Kamala
Harris (D)		 Other Undecided
University of Mary Washington Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 38% 50% 2% 5%

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 5]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 37% 39%
Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 39% 46%

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 5]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Other Undecided
Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 39% 44% – –
Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 49% – –
Mason-Dixon Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 45% – 4%
Virginia Commonwealth University Dec 2–13, 2019 728 (LV) ± 5.1% 48% 45% – 7%[lower-alpha 10]
Virginia Commonwealth University Sep 2 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0% 47% 48% – 5%[lower-alpha 10]
University of Mary Washington/Research America Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 38% 53% 2% 4%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 5]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Other Undecided
Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 42% – –
Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 48% – –
Mason-Dixon Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 44% – 8%
Virginia Commonwealth University Dec 2–13, 2019 728 (LV) ± 5.1% 47% 47% – 6%[lower-alpha 10]
Virginia Commonwealth University Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0% 46% 50% – 4%[lower-alpha 10]
University of Mary Washington Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 38% 53% 1% 5%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 5]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Other Undecided
Wason Center, Christopher
Newport University		 Sep 4–30, 2019 726 (RV) ± 4.1% 36% 51% 6%[lower-alpha 18] 6%

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 5]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Opponent		 Other Undecided
Wason Center, Christopher
Newport University		 Feb 3–23, 2020 866 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 59%[lower-alpha 19] 0%[lower-alpha 20] 2%

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 5]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Other Undecided
Virginia Commonwealth University Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0% 48% 49% – 3%[lower-alpha 10]
Ipsos/University of Virginia Feb 15–19, 2019 636 (A) ± 4.0% 25% 45% 3% 20%

Results

Line for early voting in Herndon
2020 United States presidential election in Virginia[31]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		2,415,216 54.15% +4.42%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence		 1,960,103 43.95% -0.46%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		 64,761 1.45% -1.52%
Write-in 19,765 0.44% -0.41%
Total votes 4,459,845 100.00%

Results by city and county

Independent cities have been italicized.

City or
county		Joe Biden
Democratic		Donald Trump
Republican		Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian		Write-in MarginTotal
votes
 % #  % #  % #  % # % #
Accomack 44.68% 7,578 54.07% 9,172 1.11% 188 0.14% 24 -9.39% -1,594 16,962
Albemarle 65.68% 42,466 32.18% 20,804 1.57% 1,014 0.58% 373 33.50% 21,662 64,657
Alexandria 80.28% 66,240 17.63% 14,544 1.24% 1,022 0.85% 702 62.65% 51,696 82,508
Alleghany 27.34% 2,243 71.43% 5,859 1.08% 89 0.15% 12 -44.09% -3,616 8,203
Amelia 30.55% 2,411 68.29% 5,390 1.01% 80 0.15% 12 -37.74% -2,979 7,893
Amherst 33.35% 5,672 64.93% 11,041 1.48% 251 0.24% 41 -31.58% -5,369 17,005
Appomattox 26.09% 2,418 72.31% 6,702 1.28% 119 0.31% 29 -46.22% -4,284 9,268
Arlington 80.60% 105,344 17.08% 22,318 1.40% 1,836 0.92% 1,201 63.52% 83,026 130,699
Augusta 25.64% 10,840 72.65% 30,714 1.44% 608 0.27% 116 -47.01% -19,874 42,278
Bath 25.83% 646 73.33% 1,834 0.64% 16 0.20% 5 -47.50% -1,188 2,501
Bedford 25.02% 12,176 73.15% 35,600 1.45% 708 0.38% 185 -48.13% -23,424 48,669
Bland 15.29% 532 83.44% 2,903 1.15% 40 0.11% 4 -68.15% -2,371 3,479
Botetourt 26.99% 5,700 71.49% 15,099 1.25% 264 0.27% 57 -44.50% -9,399 21,120
Bristol 29.63% 2,313 68.50% 5,347 1.60% 125 0.27% 21 -38.87% -3,034 7,806
Brunswick 57.27% 4,552 42.24% 3,357 0.43% 34 0.06% 5 15.03% 1,195 7,948
Buchanan 15.94% 1,587 83.50% 8,311 0.44% 44 0.11% 11 -67.56% -6,724 9,953
Buckingham 42.71% 3,471 55.92% 4,544 1.14% 93 0.22% 18 -13.21% -1,073 8,126
Buena Vista 29.72% 825 67.11% 1,863 2.59% 72 0.58% 16 -37.39% -1,038 2,776
Campbell 27.00% 8,070 71.07% 21,245 1.64% 490 0.29% 87 -44.07% -13,175 29,892
Caroline 47.01% 7,657 51.18% 8,336 1.59% 259 0.22% 36 -4.17% -679 16,288
Carroll 18.16% 2,842 80.88% 12,659 0.75% 118 0.20% 32 -62.72% -9,817 15,651
Charles City 59.09% 2,624 39.65% 1,761 1.22% 54 0.05% 2 19.44% 863 4,441
Charlotte 37.43% 2,317 61.62% 3,815 0.78% 48 0.18% 11 -24.19% -1,498 6,191
Charlottesville 85.50% 20,696 12.78% 3,094 1.28% 311 0.43% 104 72.72% 17,602 24,205
Chesapeake 52.22% 66,377 45.77% 58,180 1.65% 2,098 0.36% 453 6.45% 8,197 127,108
Chesterfield 52.45% 106,935 45.77% 93,326 1.44% 2,927 0.34% 696 6.68% 13,609 203,884
Clarke 41.98% 3,920 55.61% 5,192 1.91% 178 0.50% 47 -13.63% -1,272 9,337
Colonial Heights 32.50% 2,972 65.68% 6,007 1.48% 135 0.35% 32 -33.18% -3,035 9,146
Covington 37.03% 964 60.70% 1,580 1.92% 50 0.35% 9 -23.67% -616 2,603
Craig 18.52% 587 80.03% 2,536 1.26% 40 0.19% 6 -61.51% -1,949 3,169
Culpeper 39.15% 10,617 59.05% 16,012 1.50% 406 0.30% 81 -19.90% -5,395 27,116
Cumberland 41.94% 2,227 56.85% 3,019 1.00% 53 0.21% 11 -14.91% -792 5,310
Danville 60.40% 11,710 38.31% 7,428 1.01% 195 0.29% 56 22.09% 4,282 19,389
Dickenson 20.58% 1,503 78.71% 5,748 0.60% 44 0.11% 8 -58.13% -4,245 7,303
Dinwiddie 41.24% 6,224 57.61% 8,695 0.95% 144 0.19% 29 -16.37% -2,471 15,092
Emporia 67.70% 1,612 31.67% 754 0.55% 13 0.08% 2 36.03% 858 2,381
Essex 49.17% 3,038 49.77% 3,075 0.94% 58 0.11% 7 -0.60% -37 6,178
Fairfax City 68.04% 9,174 29.72% 4,007 1.49% 201 0.75% 101 38.32% 5,167 13,483
Fairfax County 69.89% 419,943 28.03% 168,401 1.33% 8,014 0.74% 4,465 41.86% 251,542 600,823
Falls Church 81.03% 7,146 16.90% 1,490 1.29% 114 0.78% 69 64.13% 5,656 8,819
Fauquier 40.23% 17,565 57.50% 25,106 1.78% 777 0.49% 213 -17.27% -7,541 43,661
Floyd 31.93% 3,004 66.17% 6,225 1.56% 147 0.34% 32 -34.24% -3,221 9,408
Fluvanna 46.81% 7,414 51.48% 8,155 1.43% 226 0.28% 45 -4.67% -741 15,840
Franklin City 62.22% 2,525 36.64% 1,487 0.86% 35 0.27% 11 25.58% 1,038 4,058
Franklin County 28.22% 8,381 70.35% 20,895 1.19% 354 0.24% 72 -42.13% -12,514 29,702
Frederick 35.33% 17,207 62.74% 30,558 1.60% 781 0.32% 157 -27.41% -13,351 48,703
Fredericksburg 66.22% 8,517 31.39% 4,037 1.87% 240 0.53% 68 34.83% 4,480 12,862
Galax 29.45% 777 69.67% 1,838 0.68% 18 0.19% 5 -40.22% -1,061 2,638
Giles 23.50% 2,156 74.93% 6,876 1.36% 125 0.21% 19 -51.43% -4,720 9,176
Gloucester 31.25% 6,964 66.76% 14,875 1.75% 389 0.24% 54 -35.51% -7,911 22,282
Goochland 39.44% 6,685 58.80% 9,966 1.43% 242 0.34% 57 -19.36% -3,281 16,950
Grayson 18.88% 1,535 80.30% 6,529 0.69% 56 0.14% 11 -61.42% -4,994 8,131
Greene 36.80% 4,163 60.70% 6,866 2.13% 241 0.36% 41 -23.90% -2,703 11,311
Greensville 57.43% 2,627 41.85% 1,914 0.50% 23 0.22% 10 15.58% 713 4,574
Halifax 42.01% 7,666 57.09% 10,418 0.77% 140 0.13% 24 -15.08% -2,752 18,248
Hampton 70.14% 46,220 27.97% 18,430 1.53% 1,006 0.37% 245 42.17% 27,790 65,901
Hanover 35.66% 25,307 62.45% 44,318 1.55% 1,103 0.34% 239 -26.79% -19,011 70,967
Harrisonburg 64.51% 11,022 32.72% 5,591 2.13% 364 0.64% 109 31.79% 5,431 17,086
Henrico 63.65% 116,572 34.64% 63,440 1.32% 2,414 0.40% 726 29.01% 53,132 183,152
Henry 34.96% 9,127 64.07% 16,725 0.85% 223 0.11% 30 -29.11% -7,598 26,105
Highland 27.20% 417 71.23% 1,092 1.44% 22 0.13% 2 -44.03% -675 1,533
Hopewell 56.52% 5,430 41.84% 4,020 1.36% 131 0.28% 27 14.68% 1,410 9,608
Isle of Wight 40.07% 9,399 58.44% 13,707 1.40% 328 0.09% 22 -18.37% -4,308 23,456
James City 51.50% 25,553 46.66% 23,153 1.43% 710 0.42% 206 4.84% 2,400 49,622
King and Queen 38.64% 1,590 59.54% 2,450 1.56% 64 0.27% 11 -20.90% -860 4,115
King George 37.99% 5,404 59.38% 8,446 2.21% 314 0.42% 60 -21.39% -3,042 14,224
King William 30.37% 3,260 68.18% 7,320 1.32% 142 0.13% 14 -37.81% -4,060 10,736
Lancaster 47.09% 3,368 51.69% 3,697 0.99% 71 0.22% 16 -4.60% -329 7,152
Lee 14.97% 1,489 84.10% 8,365 0.78% 78 0.14% 14 -69.13% -6,876 9,946
Lexington 64.84% 1,791 32.80% 906 1.74% 48 0.62% 17 32.04% 885 2,762
Loudoun 61.54% 138,372 36.51% 82,088 1.40% 3,139 0.56% 1,263 25.03% 56,284 224,862
Louisa 37.73% 8,269 60.66% 13,294 1.35% 295 0.26% 57 -22.93% -5,025 21,915
Lunenburg 40.30% 2,418 58.95% 3,537 0.67% 40 0.08% 5 -18.65% -1,119 6,000
Lynchburg 49.63% 18,048 47.02% 17,097 2.36% 857 0.99% 361 2.61% 951 36,363
Madison 33.19% 2,698 65.20% 5,300 1.30% 106 0.31% 25 -32.01% -2,602 8,129
Manassas 61.03% 10,356 36.87% 6,256 1.65% 280 0.45% 76 24.16% 4,100 16,968
Manassas Park 65.58% 3,992 32.51% 1,979 1.64% 100 0.26% 16 33.07% 2,013 6,087
Martinsville 62.63% 3,766 36.01% 2,165 1.21% 73 0.15% 9 26.62% 1,601 6,013
Mathews 31.33% 1,825 66.96% 3,901 1.49% 87 0.22% 13 -35.61% -2,076 5,826
Mecklenburg 41.98% 6,803 57.18% 9,266 0.70% 113 0.14% 22 -15.20% -2,463 16,204
Middlesex 36.71% 2,491 61.84% 4,196 1.13% 77 0.31% 21 -25.13% -1,705 6,785
Montgomery 51.55% 23,218 45.80% 20,629 2.09% 942 0.55% 248 5.75% 2,589 45,037
Nelson 46.45% 4,327 51.65% 4,812 1.61% 150 0.29% 27 -5.20% -485 9,316
New Kent 31.95% 4,621 66.59% 9,631 1.19% 172 0.27% 39 -34.64% -5,010 14,463
Newport News 65.39% 53,099 32.48% 26,377 1.77% 1,438 0.36% 289 32.91% 26,722 81,203
Norfolk 71.69% 64,440 26.08% 23,443 1.79% 1,608 0.43% 390 45.61% 40,997 89,881
Northampton 54.47% 3,667 43.89% 2,955 1.49% 100 0.15% 10 10.58% 712 6,732
Northumberland 41.61% 3,252 57.39% 4,485 0.72% 56 0.28% 22 -15.78% -1,233 7,815
Norton 28.98% 464 69.27% 1,109 1.31% 21 0.44% 7 -40.29% -645 1,601
Nottoway 41.98% 2,971 56.89% 4,027 1.02% 72 0.11% 8 -14.91% -1,056 7,078
Orange 38.54% 7,995 59.91% 12,426 1.29% 267 0.26% 54 -21.37% -4,431 20,742
Page 24.03% 3,007 74.68% 9,345 1.07% 134 0.22% 28 -50.65% -6,338 12,514
Patrick 20.50% 1,954 78.51% 7,485 0.85% 81 0.15% 14 -58.01% -5,531 9,534
Petersburg 87.75% 12,389 11.22% 1,584 0.76% 108 0.26% 37 76.53% 10,805 14,118
Pittsylvania 29.55% 10,115 69.39% 23,751 0.83% 285 0.22% 76 -39.84% -13,636 34,227
Poquoson 26.14% 2,054 71.34% 5,605 2.04% 160 0.48% 38 -45.20% -3,551 7,857
Portsmouth 69.42% 30,948 28.61% 12,755 1.62% 723 0.35% 156 40.81% 18,193 44,582
Powhatan 26.96% 5,320 71.24% 14,055 1.63% 321 0.17% 34 -44.28% -8,735 19,730
Prince Edward 51.94% 4,973 46.31% 4,434 1.42% 136 0.32% 31 5.63% 539 9,574
Prince George 40.75% 7,103 57.96% 10,103 1.12% 195 0.18% 31 -17.21% -3,000 17,432
Prince William [lower-alpha 21] 63.56% 144,511 34.70% 78,895 1.43% 3,242 0.32% 729 27.03% 61,641 228,056
Pulaski 28.34% 4,925 69.79% 12,127 1.58% 275 0.28% 49 -41.45% -7,202 17,376
Radford 53.13% 3,358 44.08% 2,786 2.29% 145 0.49% 31 9.05% 572 6,320
Rappahannock 42.11% 2,096 56.49% 2,812 1.12% 56 0.28% 14 -14.38% -716 4,978
Richmond City 82.92% 92,175 14.94% 16,603 1.52% 1,691 0.62% 690 67.98% 75,572 111,159
Richmond County 36.88% 1,513 62.09% 2,547 0.76% 31 0.27% 11 -25.21% -1,034 4,102
Roanoke City 61.80% 26,773 36.02% 15,607 1.79% 777 0.38% 166 25.78% 11,166 43,323
Roanoke County 38.12% 21,801 59.93% 34,268 1.59% 910 0.36% 205 -21.81% -12,467 57,184
Rockbridge 33.02% 4,086 65.37% 8,088 1.33% 165 0.27% 34 -32.35% -4,002 12,373
Rockingham 28.86% 12,644 69.27% 30,349 1.49% 653 0.38% 165 -40.41% -17,705 43,811
Russell 17.73% 2,373 81.27% 10,879 0.87% 116 0.13% 18 -63.54% -8,506 13,386
Salem 39.45% 5,148 58.87% 7,683 1.69% 220 0.00% 0 -19.42% -2,535 13,051
Scott 15.57% 1,692 83.38% 9,063 0.83% 90 0.22% 24 -67.81% -7,371 10,869
Shenandoah 28.86% 6,836 69.51% 16,463 1.46% 346 0.16% 39 -40.65% -9,627 23,684
Smyth 21.28% 3,008 77.55% 10,963 0.94% 133 0.23% 32 -56.27% -7,955 14,136
Southampton 40.56% 3,969 58.55% 5,730 0.89% 87 0.00% 0 -17.99% -1,761 9,786
Spotsylvania 45.55% 34,307 52.33% 39,411 1.73% 1,301 0.40% 298 -6.78% -5,104 75,317
Stafford 50.54% 40,245 47.27% 37,636 1.73% 1,376 0.46% 368 3.27% 2,609 79,625
Staunton 53.74% 6,981 43.84% 5,695 1.92% 249 0.50% 65 9.90% 1,286 12,990
Suffolk 57.77% 28,676 40.45% 20,082 1.46% 724 0.32% 160 17.32% 8,594 49,642
Surry 53.61% 2,397 45.29% 2,025 0.89% 40 0.20% 9 8.32% 372 4,471
Sussex 55.56% 2,827 43.61% 2,219 0.69% 35 0.14% 7 11.95% 608 5,088
Tazewell 15.92% 3,205 83.10% 16,731 0.79% 159 0.19% 39 -67.18% -13,526 20,134
Virginia Beach 51.59% 117,393 46.18% 105,087 1.85% 4,208 0.38% 873 5.41% 12,306 227,561
Warren 31.22% 6,603 66.53% 14,069 1.73% 365 0.52% 110 -35.31% -7,466 21,147
Washington 23.07% 6,617 75.58% 21,679 1.06% 304 0.30% 85 -52.51% -15,062 28,685
Waynesboro 46.29% 4,961 51.39% 5,507 1.95% 209 0.37% 40 -5.10% -546 10,717
Westmoreland 45.31% 4,501 53.54% 5,318 0.91% 90 0.24% 24 -8.23% -817 9,933
Williamsburg 69.59% 4,790 28.52% 1,963 1.34% 92 0.55% 38 41.07% 2,827 6,883
Winchester 54.60% 6,610 43.13% 5,221 1.76% 213 0.51% 62 11.47% 1,389 12,106
Wise 18.72% 3,110 80.45% 13,366 0.65% 108 0.19% 31 -61.73% -10,256 16,615
Wythe 20.85% 3,143 77.85% 11,733 1.13% 170 0.17% 26 -57.00% -8,590 15,072
York 45.59% 17,683 52.19% 20,241 1.75% 680 0.47% 183 -6.60% -2,558 38,787

Results by congressional district

Biden won 7 out of Virginia's 11 congressional districts.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 51.4% 47% Rob Wittman
2nd 46.7% 51.4% Elaine Luria
3rd 31.2% 67.2% Bobby Scott
4th 36.8% 61.8% Donald McEachin
5th 53.6% 45.1% Denver Riggleman
Bob Good
6th 59.8% 38.6% Ben Cline
7th 48.7% 49.8% Abigail Spanberger
8th 21.1% 77.6% Don Beyer
9th 70.4% 28.4% Morgan Griffith
10th 39.6% 58.9% Jennifer Wexton
11th 28.3% 70.3% Gerry Connolly

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

In this election, Virginia voted 5.6% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Although Virginia was considered a reliably Republican state at the presidential level from 1952 to 2004 (having only gone to the Democrats once during that period, in Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide), it has not voted Republican in a presidential election since 2004. In recent years, densely populated counties in Northern Virginia close to Washington, D.C., have tilted towards the Democrats. This was the first election since 1988 that a presidential candidate won Virginia by double digits (George H. W. Bush having carried the state by 20.5% in his first run), and the first election in which any presidential candidate received over 2 million votes in Virginia.

As fellow Southern state Georgia tilted towards Biden, he became the first Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948 to carry both states. This was also the first election in which a former Confederate state backed a Democratic candidate by a margin of victory greater than 10% since 1996, when Arkansas and Louisiana did so for Bill Clinton.

Following the election, news and political analysts considered the presidential results in Virginia, along with Democrats holding the senate seat held by Mark Warner, their house congressional majority, plus the previous year's elections in which Democrats flipped the state General Assembly, to be indicative that it was no longer a swing state, but a blue state.[32][33]

Their domination of state and local offices would be short-lived, however, as in 2021 the Republicans flipped the Democratic-held offices of governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, as well as winning control of the Virginia House of Delegates.[34][35] In 2023, Democrats recaptured the House of Delegates, winning full control of the General Assembly once again, albeit by narrower margins than what they acquired in 2019.

Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump No
Answer		  % of
Voters
Party
Democrat 96 4 N/A 36
Republican 9 90 N/A 34
Independent 57 38 N/A 30
Gender
Men 49 48 1 49
Women 61 38 1 51
Race
White 45 53 2 67
Black 89 10 1 18
Latino 61 36 3 7
Asian 60 38 2 4
Other 50 43 7 3
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men 39 58 3 33
White women 50 49 1 33
Black men 86 14 N/A 8
Black women 92 8 N/A 11
Latino men (of any race) 53 41 6 3
Latino women (of any race) 68 32 N/A 4
All other races 58 40 2 8
Gender by marital status
Married men 50 49 N/A 29
Married women 51 47 N/A 28
Unmarried men 58 39 3 20
Unmarried women 69 30 N/A 23
Parents
Men with children 49 49 1 15
Women with children 58 41 1 19
Men no children 53 43 4 34
Women no children 60 38 2 32
Age
18–24 years old 62 33 1 12
25–29 years old 63 34 3 8
30–39 years old 60 38 2 17
40–49 years old 63 36 1 16
50–64 years old 48 51 N/A 29
65 and older 45 54 1 18
LGBT
Yes 83 11 N/A 5
No 53 43 4 95
First time voter
First time voter 65 32 3 9
Everyone else 55 42 N/A 91
U.S. military veteran
Yes 36 62 N/A 16
No 59 38 N/A 84
Education
College graduate 57 40 N/A 43
No college degree 53 46 1 57
Education by race/ethnicity
White college graduates 52 45 3 33
White no college degree 38 62 N/A 34
Non-white college graduates 75 24 1 10
Non-white no college degree 76 22 2 23
Income
Under $50,000 60 39 1 33
$50,000–99,999 52 47 1 27
Over $100,000 46 53 1 41
Abortion should be
Legal 78 20 2 54
Illegal 29 69 1 42
Area Type
Urban 64 34 2 24
Suburban 53 45 2 60
Rural 46 52 2 16
Region
DC Suburbs 68 30 N/A 30
Central Virginia 44 53 3 16
Hampton Roads 62 36 N/A 16
Richmond/Southside 56 42 N/A 18
Mountain 35 63 N/A 20
Source: CNN[36]

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ The "2020 March Democratic Presidential Primary" website published by the Virginia Department of Elections does not include the write-in votes.[14] This article includes them.
  2. 1 2 3 Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, shortly before the primary.
  3. 1 2 3 Candidate withdrew following the New Hampshire primary, when absentee voting had already begun.
  4. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  6. ↑ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  7. ↑ "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  8. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  9. ↑ "Third party candidate" with 2%
  10. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Includes "refused"
  11. ↑ "Other", "None of these" and would not vote with 0%
  12. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  13. ↑ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  14. ↑ "Another candidate" with 2%
  15. ↑ "Third party candidate" with 1%
  16. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  17. ↑ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  18. ↑ "Would vote for a third party candidate" with 6%
  19. ↑ "It is time to have someone else in office" as opposed to "Trump should be re-elected" with 59%
  20. ↑ "Refused" with 0%
  21. ↑ On January 11th, 2024, the Prince William County Office of Elections issued a notice that the election results in the county were improperly reported. The error caused Trump's countywide votes to be overreported by 2,327 and Biden's countywide votes to be underreported by 1,648. See https://web.archive.org/web/20240112013754/https://twitter.com/PWCVotes/status/1745561439354470622
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 Poll conducted by Daniel Gade's campaign

References

  1. ↑ "Virginia Department of Elections - Registration/Turnout Reports".
  2. ↑ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ↑ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ↑ "Without Northern Virginia, Trump would have won the state". Inside Nova. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  5. ↑ "Chesterfield and Lynchburg hadn't backed a Democrat for president since 1948. Biden changed that". Virginia Mercury. November 5, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  6. ↑ "Virginia Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
  7. 1 2 "Virginia Republicans Will Hold 2020 Presidential Preference Vote at State Convention". Frontloading. September 18, 2019. Retrieved September 19, 2019.
  8. ↑ Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019). "GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers". Boston Globe. MSN. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  9. ↑ Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019). "GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged". ABC News. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  10. ↑ "Virginia Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
  11. ↑ Mattingly, Justin (June 30, 2020). "Republican Party of Virginia reschedules 'unassembled' convention for August". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved July 10, 2020.
  12. ↑ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  13. ↑ "2020 March Democratic Presidential Primary". Virginia.gov. Virginia Department of Elections. Archived from the original on March 27, 2020. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
  14. ↑ "2020 March Democratic Presidential Primary". Virginia Department of Elections. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
  15. ↑ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Virginia Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 4, 2020.
  16. 1 2 Jonah Thomas (May 12, 2020). "2020 GPVA Presidential Primary Results".
  17. ↑ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  18. ↑ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  19. ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  20. ↑ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  21. ↑ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  22. ↑ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  23. ↑ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  24. ↑ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  25. ↑ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  26. ↑ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  27. ↑ "ABC News Race Ratings". ABC News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  28. ↑ Montanaro, Domenico (September 16, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Landscape tightens some, but Biden is still ahead". NPR. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
  29. ↑ "Biden continues to lead in our latest battleground map". NBC News. October 27, 2020. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
  30. ↑ "Biden is very likely to win Virginia". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
  31. ↑ "2020 November General". results.elections.virginia.gov. Archived from the original on January 2, 2021. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
  32. ↑ "Virginia went from purple to blue. Here's what lies ahead for Virginia Republicans". 13newsnow.com. November 5, 2020. Retrieved June 9, 2023.
  33. ↑ "EDITORIAL: 'NoVA creep" turns former red state blue". Fredericksburg.com. November 18, 2020. Retrieved June 9, 2023.
  34. ↑ "So, what color is Virginia now?". Roll Call. November 16, 2021. Retrieved June 9, 2023.
  35. ↑ "Republicans Bucked Virginia's Blue State Trend. Here Are A Few Reasons Why". WAMU. Retrieved June 9, 2023.
  36. ↑ "Georgia 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 14, 2020.
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