2024 United States presidential election in Maine
November 5, 2024
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic


The 2024 United States presidential election in Maine is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Maine voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district.

On December 28, 2023, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows removed Donald Trump from the ballot in a similar decision to Anderson v. Griswold in Colorado.[2] On January 2, 2024, Trump appealed the ruling to the Maine Superior Court, arguing that Bellows is biased and that she has "no legal authority to consider the federal constitutional issues presented by the challengers".[3]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[4]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Maine Democratic primary is scheduled to be held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Republican primary

The Maine Republican caucuses are scheduled to be held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

General election

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other /
Undecided
Digital Research October 3 – November 2, 2023 614 (RV) ± 3.9% 36% 35% 29%[lower-alpha 2]
Emerson College September 19–20, 2022 1,164 (LV) ± 2.8% 51% 40% 9%

Maine's 1st congressional district

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other /
Undecided
Digital Research October 3 – November 2, 2023 307 (RV) – 43% 27% 30%

Maine's 2nd congressional district

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other /
Undecided
Digital Research October 3 – November 2, 2023 307 (RV) – 28% 42% 30%

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[5] Likely D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[6] Likely D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] Likely D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[8] Lean D December 14, 2023
CNalysis[9] Likely D December 30, 2023
CNN[10] Safe D January 14, 2024

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Other candidate with 10%

References

  1. ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ↑ Cohen, Marshall (December 28, 2023). "Maine's top election official removes Trump from 2024 ballot | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  3. ↑ Russell, Jenna (January 2, 2024). "Trump Appeals Decision Barring Him From Maine Primary Ballot". The New York Times. Retrieved January 2, 2024.
  4. ↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  5. ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  6. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  7. ↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
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