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The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Pennsylvania voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1] Pennsylvania is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.
Incumbent Democratic president and Pennsylvanian-born Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[2]
Democratic primary
Republican primary
The Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary will be held on April 23, 2024.
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[3] | Tossup |
| Inside Elections[4] | Tossup |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] | Lean D |
| CNalysis[5] | Tossup |
| CNN[6] | Tossup |
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | January 4–8, 2024 | 1,680 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 49% | 46% | 5%[lower-alpha 2] |
| The Bullfinch Group | December 14–18, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Muhlenberg College | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 799 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| 816 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | October 11–22, 2023 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 5–10, 2023 | 807 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7-9, 2023 | 900 (LV) | – | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Emerson College | October 1-4, 2023 | 430 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 36% | 45% | 19% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 28 – October 2, 2023 | 1,725 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1] | September 25–26, 2023 | 673 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University | June 22–26, 2023 | 1,584 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 36% | 35% | 29% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | February 19–26, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Targoz Market Research | November 2–6, 2022 | 631 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 52% | 2% |
| Emerson College | October 28–31, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Emerson College | September 23–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 828 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Emerson College | August 22–23, 2022 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
| PEM Management Corporation (R)[upper-alpha 2] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | July 19–21, 2022 | 712 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | February 15–16, 2022 | 635 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 3] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 51% | 4% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | January 4–8, 2023 | 1,680 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 41% | 39% | 11% | 2% | 4% | 3%[lower-alpha 3] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 799 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 39% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 41% | 8% | 1% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 887 (LV) | – | 37% | 44% | 7% | 10% |
| New York Times/Siena College | Oct 22 – Nov 3, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ±4.6 | 35% | 35% | 23% | 7% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 900 (LV) | – | 39% | 39% | 9% | 13% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 887 (LV) | – | 37% | 34% | 13% | 3% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 887 (LV) | – | 36% | 26% | 18% | 7% | 13% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 41% | 39% | 20% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 39% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 828 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 33% | 38% | 29% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 39% | 49% | 12% |
Hypothetical polling
- Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 38% | 20% |
- Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 48% | 37% | 15% |
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
- ↑ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
- ↑ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
References
- ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ↑ "2024 POTUS Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 12, 2024.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ "2024 POTUS Race ratings". insideelections.com. Retrieved January 12, 2024.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - 1 2 "2024 Presidential Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved January 12, 2024.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ "Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 12, 2024.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
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