2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
November 5, 2024
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic


The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Primary elections will take place on April 23, 2024.[1] Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. announced his intention to run for a fourth term on April 10, 2023.[2]

Background

Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, the Governorship, a majority of its U.S. House congressional delegation, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat was in 2016.[3][4][5][6]

Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points and in 2018 by 13 percentage points.[7][8][9]

The race is expected to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean, but most analysts consider Casey to be the narrow favorite.[10]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Nicholas Del Moore[13]

Endorsements

Bob Casey
Executive officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
Individuals
Political parties
Organizations
Labor unions

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Bob Casey Jr. (D) $14,459,590 $7,570,339 $7,377,268
Blaine Forkner (D) $2,107 $1,847 $5,609
Source: Federal Election Commission[30]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

David McCormick
Federal officials
State cabinet officials
U.S senators
U.S. representatives
State senators
Local officials
  • Sam DeMarco, at-large Allegheny County councilor (2016–present) and chair of the Allegheny County Republican Party (2018–present)[43]
Party officials
Organizations
Political parties
Individuals

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kathy
Barnette		 Doug
Mastriano		 David
McCormick		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) March 9–10, 2023 616 (LV) – 11% 39% 21% 29%
– – 42% 28% 29%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[49] Lean D November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[50] Tilt D November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[51] Likely D November 9, 2023
Elections Daily[52] Likely D May 4, 2023
CNalysis[53] Lean D November 21, 2023

Polling

Bob Casey Jr. vs. David McCormick
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Bob
Casey Jr. (D)		 David
McCormick (R)		 Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University January 4–8, 2023 1,680 (RV) ± 2.4% 53% 43% 1%[lower-alpha 2] 2%
Common Ground (R)[upper-alpha 1] December 8–12, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 27% 13%[lower-alpha 3] 20%
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] December 3–7, 2023 2,532 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 41% 0% 15%
Franklin & Marshall College October 11–22, 2023 873 (RV) ± 4.1% 46% 39% 4% 12%
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 430 (RV) ± 4.7% 41% 33% 8% 18%
Quinnipiac University September 28 – October 2, 2023 1,725 (RV) ± 2.4% 50% 44% 2%[lower-alpha 4] 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) May 2–8, 2023 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 53% 41% 1% 5%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% 0% 13%
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 6.6% 42% 35% – 23%
Hypothetical polling
Bob Casey Jr. vs. Doug Mastriano
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Bob
Casey Jr. (D)		 Doug
Mastriano (R)		 Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 3.7% 47% 31% 22%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  3. ↑ "None of the above" with 8%; "Other" with 5%
  4. ↑ "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation, a conserative think tank
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by Future Majority, a partisan sponser for the Democratic Party.

References

  1. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  2. ↑ "Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats' Senate outlook for 2024 | CNN Politics". CNN. April 10, 2023.
  3. ↑ "Pennsylvania 2020 presidential election results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  4. ↑ "Pennsylvania Governor Midterm Election Results and Maps 2022 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  5. ↑ Narea, Nicole (February 8, 2023). "Democrats in Pennsylvania just won the 2022 midterms. Again". Vox. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  6. ↑ "United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016". Ballotpedia. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  7. ↑ A 501tax-exempt; Street, charitable organization 1100 13th; NW; Washington, Suite 800; Dc 20005857-0044. "Pennsylvania Senate 2006 Race". OpenSecrets. Retrieved March 19, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  8. ↑ "Pennsylvania". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  9. ↑ "Pennsylvania Senate Election Results 2018: Live Midterm Map by County & Analysis". www.politico.com. November 7, 2018. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  10. ↑ Hudson, Lee (April 10, 2023). "Bob Casey running for Senate reelection". POLITICO. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
  11. ↑ Wright, David (April 10, 2023). "Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats' Senate outlook for 2024". CNN. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
  12. ↑ Prose, J.D. (September 25, 2023). "Western Pa. progressive Democrat announces primary challenge to U.S. Sen. Bob Casey". PennLive Patriot-News. Advance Local Media LLC. Retrieved September 26, 2023.
  13. ↑ "Filing FEC-1665933". Federal Election Commission. December 6, 2022. Retrieved October 29, 2023.
  14. 1 2 3 4 Lyons, Kim (July 26, 2023). "Casey campaign gets a boost from Pennsylvania veterans' coalition". Pennsylvania Capital-Star. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  15. 1 2 3 Kail, Benjamin (April 30, 2023). "Sen. Bob Casey is starting his 2024 Senate campaign with a big head start". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  16. 1 2 "NextGen PAC Endorses Senator Bob Casey Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  17. ↑ Prose, J. D. (December 16, 2023). "Pa. Democrats make 2024 endorsements, but attorney general's race remains open". The Patriot-News. Retrieved December 16, 2023.
  18. ↑ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  19. 1 2 "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Bob Casey for Reelection". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". June 26, 2023. Retrieved June 26, 2023.
  20. ↑ "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Bob Casey for Reelection to the US Senate". Giffords. November 14, 2023. Retrieved October 15, 2023.
  21. ↑ "JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  22. ↑ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  23. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  24. ↑ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  25. ↑ "Meet Our 2024 Candidates". Peace Action. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
  26. ↑ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  27. ↑ Lyons, Kim. "Casey picks up PA AFL-CIO endorsement". Pennsylvania Capital-Star. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
  28. ↑ "United Mine Workers endorses Casey for re-election in Pennsylvania". UMWA. Archived from the original on September 30, 2023. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
  29. ↑ "USW Endorses Bob Casey for Reelection to U.S. Senate". United Steelworkers. September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  30. ↑ "2024 Election United States Senate - Pennslyvania". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  31. ↑ Steinhauser, Paul (September 21, 2023). "Republican Dave McCormick launches bid for vulnerable Senate seat in battleground state". Fox News. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
  32. ↑ Lippman, Daniel; Otterbein, Holly (March 15, 2023). "MAGA favorite Kathy Barnette says she won't run again for Senate". POLITICO. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
  33. ↑ "A well-liked incumbent stands in the way of Republicans retaking the Pennsylvania Senate seat". May 25, 2023.
  34. ↑ Cruz, Abby; McDuffie, Will (September 15, 2023). "Republican who narrowly lost to Dr. Oz expected to run again for Senate". ABC News. Retrieved September 23, 2023.
  35. ↑ Weaver, Al (May 25, 2023). "Doug Mastriano decides against launching Senate bid". The Hill.
  36. 1 2 Smith, Allan; Bowman, Bridget (September 21, 2023). "Republican Dave McCormick jumps into the critical Pennsylvania Senate race". NBC News. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  37. ↑ Siwy, Bruce (September 21, 2023). "Who is David McCormick? Here are 5 things to know about Bob Casey's possible GOP opponent". Erie Times-News. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  38. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Salant, Jonathan D.; Kail, Benjamin (September 28, 2023). "A top conservative group picked a candidate in the GOP primary to take on Chris Deluzio". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  39. ↑ Newhouse, Savannah (September 27, 2023). "Senator Marsha Blackburn Endorses Dave McCormick for Senate". LegiStorm. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  40. ↑ Mutnick, Ally (September 21, 2023). "This GOP hopeful got on Trump's bad side last year. Now he might decide control of the Senate". Politico. Archived from the original on September 22, 2023. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  41. ↑ Tamari, Jonathan (May 24, 2023). "McCormick's Second Senate Try Hinges on Fitting a Changed GOP". Bloomberg Government. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  42. ↑ White, Jaxon (September 21, 2023). "State Sen. Ryan Aument would endorse Dave McCormick's U.S. Senate run". LNP Lancaster Online. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  43. ↑ Levy, Marc (December 8, 2022). "Trump blowback could carry less bite in 2024 for some in GOP". Associated Press. Retrieved January 19, 2023.
  44. ↑ Seidel, Emily (July 19, 2023). "Americans for Prosperity Action Announces First Wave of Endorsements in 2024 U.S. Senate Races". AFP Action. Retrieved July 19, 2023.
  45. 1 2 "CPAC ENDORSES DAVID MCCORMICK FOR U.S. SENATE IN PENNSYLVANIA". CPAC.
  46. ↑ Pennsylvania Federation of College Republicans (@PACRFederation) (October 1, 2023). "PAFCR Endorses @DaveMcCormickPA in Crucial Race for United States Senate". Twitter. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  47. ↑ Penn State College Republicans (@PennStateGOP) (October 1, 2023). "Penn State College Republicans Endorse Dave McCormick for United States Senate". Twitter. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  48. ↑ Mastrull, Diane (September 30, 2023). "David McCormick secures Pa. GOP endorsement in his Senate run". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
  49. ↑ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  50. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  51. ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  52. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  53. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
Official campaign websites
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