2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina

2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina
	November 5, 2024
Incumbent President; Joe Biden; Democratic	; ;

The 2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. North Carolina voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Carolina has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.^[1] Although a red-leaning state (it was the narrowest Republican victory in 2020), North Carolina is expected to be targeted by both parties in 2024.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.^[2]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

In North Carolina, candidates can make the primary ballot either by being nominated by the state party or by filing a nominating petition with at least 10,000 signatures.^[3] The North Carolina Democratic Party submitted only Joe Biden as a candidate,^[4] and no candidate submitted 10,000 signatures by the December 22, 2023 deadline.^[5] In North Carolina, primaries are not held if a candidate runs unopposed.^[6]

The cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips campaign, who started an online petition to get his candidacy on the ballot and threatened legal challenges.^[4]^[7] Marianne Williamson and Cenk Uygur also criticized the moves.^[4] In North Carolina, the "No Preference" option will appear on the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian Presidential Preference Primary ballots. This last occurred in 2012, when President Barack Obama did not face primary opposition in North Carolina, but approximately twenty percent of voters opted for the "No Preference" option. ^[8]

Republican primary

The North Carolina Republican primary is scheduled to be held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

General election

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	November 27 – December 6, 2023	704 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	34%	8%	1%	1%	11%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 30 – November 7, 2023	702 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	33%	9%	2%	14%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	620 (LV)	–	44%	35%	8%	13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	October 7-9, 2023	736 (LV)	–	41%	38%	9%	14%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other	Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	620 (LV)	–	38%	34%	12%	4%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Nikki Haley Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other	Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	620 (LV)	–	36%	33%	12%	5%	13%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	November 27 – December 6, 2023	704 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	40%	11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 30 – November 7, 2023	702 (RV)	± 4.0%	48%	39%	13%
Meredith College	November 1-5, 2023	755 (RV)	± 3.5%	40%	39%	22%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 5–10, 2023	702 (RV)	± 4.0%	47%	43%	10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	October 7-9, 2023	736 (LV)	-	43%	38%	20%
Change Research (D)^{[upper-alpha 1]}	September 1–5, 2023	914 (LV)	± 3.6%	46%	42%	12%
Opinion Diagnostics	June 5–7, 2023	902 (LV)	± 3.3%	43%	40%	18%
Cygnal (R)^{[upper-alpha 2]}	March 26–27, 2023	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	45%	12%
Differentiators (R)^{[upper-alpha 3]}	January 9–12, 2023	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	45%	48%	7%
Emerson College	October 27–29, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	51%	40%	9%
Public Policy Polling (D)	October 7–8, 2022	606 (RV)	–	44%	44%	12%
SurveyUSA	September 28 – October 2, 2022	918 (RV)	± 3.9%	43%	45%	12%
Emerson College	September 15–16, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	42%	11%
East Carolina University	September 7–10, 2022	1,020 (LV)	± 3.6%	46%	45%	9%
Blueprint Polling (D)	August 4–6, 2022	656 (LV)	± 3.8%	45%	39%	17%
PEM Management Corporation (R)^{[upper-alpha 4]}	July 22–24, 2022	300 (LV)	± 5.7%	48%	41%	11%
East Carolina University	May 19–20, 2022	635 (RV)	± 4.5%	46%	37%	16%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Opinion Diagnostics	June 5–7, 2023	902 (LV)	± 3.3%	46%	40%	13%
Cygnal (R)^{[upper-alpha 2]}	March 26–27, 2023	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	41%	15%
Differentiators (R)^{[upper-alpha 3]}	January 9–12, 2023	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	49%	44%	7%

Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Mike Pence Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Cygnal (R)^{[upper-alpha 2]}	March 26–27, 2023	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	39%	41%	20%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[9]	Lean R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections^[10]	Tilt R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[11]	Lean R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[12]	Tossup	December 14, 2023
CNalysis^[13]	Tossup	December 30, 2023
CNN^[14]	Lean R	January 14, 2024

Notes

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

Partisan clients

↑ Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
1 2 Poll sponsored by NC Values Coalition, a sponsor of the Republican Party
↑ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC

References

↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
↑ "2024 Fact Sheet - Running for President" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 26, 2023.
1 2 3 "Biden primary foe Phillips will challenge states where he missed ballot | Semafor". www.semafor.com. December 7, 2023. Retrieved December 26, 2023.
↑ "North Carolina's 2024 presidential primary candidates approved". Carolina Journal -. December 26, 2023. Retrieved December 26, 2023.
↑ "Primary election cancellations". Ballotpedia. Retrieved December 26, 2023.
↑ "Dean Phillips, a Democrat running for president, says North Carolina is wrong to keep him off ballot". WUNC. December 22, 2023. Retrieved December 26, 2023.
↑ "Our Campaigns - NC US President - D Primary Race - May 08, 2012".
↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.

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[key-9] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[10] Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward

[JLF-11] 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation

[NCVC-12] 1 2 Poll sponsored by NC Values Coalition, a sponsor of the Republican Party

[BoltonPAC-13] Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC

[1] Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.

[2] Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.

[3] "2024 Fact Sheet - Running for President" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 26, 2023.

[:0-4] 1 2 3 "Biden primary foe Phillips will challenge states where he missed ballot | Semafor". www.semafor.com. December 7, 2023. Retrieved December 26, 2023.

[5] "North Carolina's 2024 presidential primary candidates approved". Carolina Journal -. December 26, 2023. Retrieved December 26, 2023.

[6] "Primary election cancellations". Ballotpedia. Retrieved December 26, 2023.

[7] "Dean Phillips, a Democrat running for president, says North Carolina is wrong to keep him off ballot". WUNC. December 22, 2023. Retrieved December 26, 2023.

[8] "Our Campaigns - NC US President - D Primary Race - May 08, 2012".

[14] "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[15] "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[16] "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[17] "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[18] "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[19] "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.

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