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| Elections in Florida |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Florida is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Florida voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Florida has 30 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1] Although once considered a swing and bellwether state, the Sunshine State has taken a large rightward turn in recent years, with Donald Trump carrying the state in the 2020 presidential election by 3.36 percentage points despite losing nationwide, and Republicans winning all statewide offices in large, double-digit margins in the 2022 midterms.[2]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for re-election to a second term.[3]
Primary elections
Republican primary
The Florida Republican primary is scheduled to be held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Illinois, and Ohio.
Democratic primary
On November 30, 2023, Politico reported that the Florida Democratic Party had only submitted Biden's name to the Secretary of State, which means that the primary will be cancelled under Florida law.
This cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips[4] and Marianne Williamson campaigns.[5] Williamson and fellow Democratic candidate Cenk Uygur held a press conference over Zoom on December 1 criticizing the move.[6] On December 11, 2023, a voter filed a lawsuit in federal court seeking to add Phillips, Williamson, and Cenk Uygur's name to the ballot.[7] The voter lost in district court but is expected to appeal.[8]
Winner
- President Joe Biden
Endorsements
Joe Biden
US Representatives
- Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, FL-20 (2022–present)[9]
- Maxwell Frost,[lower-alpha 1] FL-10 (2023–present)[10]
- Darren Soto, FL-09 (2017–present)[9]
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz, FL-25 (2023–present), FL-23 (2013–2023), FL-20 (2005–2013), former Chair of the Democratic National Committee (2011–2016)[9]
Former
- Val Demings, FL-10 (2017–2023), Chief of the Orlando Police Department (2007–2011), nominee for U.S. Senator from Florida in 2022[11]
State legislators
- Shevrin Jones,[lower-alpha 1] Florida state senator from the 35th district (2020–present), state representative from the 101st district (2012–2020)[12]
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden |
Hillary Clinton |
Kamala Harris |
Gavin Newsom |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | Sep 15–18, 2022 | 163 (LV) | – | 50% | – | – | 33% | 17% |
| Suffolk University | Jan 26–29, 2022 | 164 (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | – | – | 11% |
| Victory Insights | Sep 16–18, 2021 | 200 (LV) | – | 60% | – | 17% | – | 23% |
General election
Polling
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | October 27 – November 11, 2023 | 946 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 39% | 10% | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 1,100 (RV) | – | 44% | 39% | 6% | 11% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | June 27 – July 1, 2023 | 933 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 39% | 10% | 2% |
| Metropolitan Research Services | March 15–19, 2023 | 1,001 (RV) | – | 47% | 43% | – | 10% |
| Emerson College | March 13–15, 2023 | 1,153 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 44% | – | 12% |
| University of North Florida | February 25 – March 7, 2023 | 1,452 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 50% | 43% | – | 7% |
| Victory Insights | November 16–17, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 51% | – | – |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | November 8–9, 2022 | 1,224 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
| Florida Atlantic University | October 12–16, 2022 | 719 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 41% | – | 14% |
| Suffolk University | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 815 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
| Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 44% | 0% | 9% |
| Victory Insights | September 16–18, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 51% | – | – |
| St. Pete Polls | August 16–17, 2021 | 2,068 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 47% | 48% | 3% | 2% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | August 4–10, 2021 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 50% | – | 8% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 897 (LV) | – | 44% | 34% | 9% | 2% | 11% |
| Cygnal (R) | November 13–15, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.41% | 44% | 37% | 11% | 0% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 1100 (LV) | – | 44% | 37% | 8% | 2% | 9% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 897 (LV) | – | 38% | 34% | 12% | 5% | 11% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 897 (LV) | – | 27% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 17% |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | October 27 – November 11, 2023 | 946 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 39% | 13% | 2% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | June 27 – July 1, 2023 | 933 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 36% | 11% | 4% |
| Emerson College | March 13–15, 2023 | 1,153 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 43% | 7% | 4% |
| University of North Florida | February 25 – March 7, 2023 | 1,452 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 51% | 42% | – | 8% |
| Cherry Communications | February 10–19, 2023 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 38% | – | 13% |
| Victory Insights | November 16–17, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 53% | 47% | – | – |
| Suffolk University | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 52% | 44% | – | 4% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 815 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 51% | 42% | – | 7% |
| Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 44% | – | 4% |
| Victory Insights | September 16–18, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 51% | – | – |
| The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R) | September 11–12, 2021 | 1,144 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 55% | – | – |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | August 4–10, 2021 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 49% | – | 4% |
- Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Victory Insights | September 16–18, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 51% | – |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 52% | 40% | 8% |
| Victory Insights | September 16–18, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 49% | – |
- Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Hillary Clinton
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 53% | 40% | 7% |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[13] | Likely R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[14] | Lean R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Likely R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[16] | Lean R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[17] | Likely R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[18] | Lean R | January 14, 2024 |
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
- ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ↑ Friedersdorf, Conor (November 9, 2022). "Is Florida Still a Swing State?". The Atlantic. Retrieved November 23, 2022.
- ↑ Din, Benjamin (March 25, 2021). "Biden: 'My plan is to run for reelection' in 2024". Politico.com. Retrieved July 19, 2021.
- ↑ Otterbein, Holly; Fineout, Gary (November 30, 2023). "Florida Democrats plan to cancel presidential primary, enraging Dean Phillips' campaign". Politico. Retrieved December 1, 2023.
- ↑ John, Arit (November 30, 2023). "Dean Phillips criticizes Florida Democrats for his absence from primary ballot". CNN. Retrieved December 1, 2023.
- ↑ Timotija, Filip (December 1, 2023). "Long-shot candidates blast Florida Democrats for absence on primary ballot". The Hill. Retrieved December 2, 2023.
- ↑ Fineout, Gary (December 11, 2023). "Federal judge asked to place Dean Phillips on Florida primary ballot". POLITICO. Retrieved December 11, 2023.
- ↑ Fineout, Gary (January 12, 2024). "Federal judge rejects attempt to place Dean Phillips on Florida primary ballot". POLITICO. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
- 1 2 3 Cappabianca, Corina (April 25, 2023). "Florida members of Congress react to Biden's reelection announcement". NY1.
- ↑ Stockburger, George (May 10, 2023). "Josh Shapiro, Malcolm Kenyatta named to Biden-Harris Campaign National Advisory Board". ABC27/WHTM.
- ↑ McCammond, Alexi; Treene, Alayna; Solender, Andrew (August 5, 2022). "Dems dodge on Biden '24". Axios. Archived from the original on March 28, 2023.
- ↑ Stockburger, George (May 10, 2023). "Josh Shapiro, Malcolm Kenyatta named to Biden-Harris Campaign National Advisory Board". ABC27/WHTM.
- ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
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