2024 United States presidential election
November 5, 2024
538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
Opinion polls
2024 electoral map, based on 2020 census
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic


The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] Voters will elect a president and vice president for a term of four years. Incumbent President Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, is running for re-election.[2] His predecessor Donald Trump, a member of the Republican Party, is running for re-election to a second, nonconsecutive term.[3] If Trump wins, he would become the second president to achieve this feat, after Grover Cleveland. If both Biden and Trump are nominated by their respective parties, it would mark the first presidential rematch since 1956. A number of primary election challengers have also declared their candidacies for the nomination of both major parties. The winner of this election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. It will occur at the same time as elections to the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House; several states will also be holding gubernatorial and state legislative elections.

Prior to the general election, political parties will choose their nominees at nominating conventions. Delegates to the nominating conventions will be chosen by voters in state-level caucuses and primary elections. In October 2023, anti-vaccine activist[4][5] and environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his run as an independent presidential candidate.[6] By the next month, Kennedy's polling was at the highest levels for a third-party candidate since Ross Perot in 1992.[7][8]

Colorado[9] and Maine have ruled that Trump is ineligible to hold office, and as such is disqualified from appearing on the ballot, due to his role in the January 6 Capitol attack. However, the rulings are stayed pending appeal.[10][11]

This is the first presidential election to occur after the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Abortion access,[12][13] healthcare,[14] education,[15] the economy,[16] foreign policy,[17] LGBT rights,[18] and democracy[19][20] are expected to be leading campaign issues.

Background

Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[21] Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny, so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election. Both Biden and Trump are running for president in 2024, suggesting a potential rematch of the 2020 election, which would be the first presidential rematch since 1956.[22] If Trump is elected, he would become the second president to win a second non-consecutive term, joining Grover Cleveland who did so in 1892.[23]

Election interference

Donald Trump did not concede to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, citing false claims of voter fraud, and has continued denying the election results as of January 2024.[24][25] Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results.[26]

Polling before the election has indicated profound dissatisfaction with the state of American democracy.[27][28][29] Liberals tend to believe that conservatives are threatening the country with autocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election.[30] Many Republicans are concerned with attempts to prevent former President Trump from holding public office by any means necessary, including impeachment and indictment.[31]

Electoral map

Effects of the 2020 census

This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census.[32][33] If the results of the 2020 election were to stay the same (which has never occurred in the history of presidential elections) in 2024, Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans' 235, a slight change from Biden's 306 electoral votes and Trump's 232, meaning that Democrats lost a net of 3 electoral votes to the reapportionment process. This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain only through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.[34]

Historical background

Expected partisan lean of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia on the presidential level. The shading of each state denotes the winner's two-party vote share, averaged between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. States that flipped in 2020 are colored gray.

In recent presidential elections, most states are not competitive due to demographics keeping them solidly behind one of the major parties. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, this means that the various swing states — competitive states that "swing" between the Democratic and Republican parties — are vital to winning the presidency. As of now, these include states in the Rust Belt, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and states in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.[35] North Carolina may also be considered a battleground state, due to the close result in the previous presidential election, in which Trump only won by 1.34%.[36] Due to gradual demographic shifts, some former swing states such as Iowa, Ohio and Florida have shifted significantly towards the Republicans, favoring them in future statewide and local elections. Meanwhile, states like Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia have moved noticeably towards the Democrats, and the party has become the dominant political force there.[37][38][39]

The Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, performs best among Jewish and Black voters;[40][41] whites who are wealthy or postgraduates,[42] or live in urban areas.[43] Working class voters were also a mainstay of the Democratic coalition since the days of the New Deal, but since the 1970s, many have defected to Republicans as the Democratic Party moved significantly to the left on cultural issues.[44] Conversely, the traditional Republican coalition that dominates many "red states" is mainly composed of rural white voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters.[45] Republicans have also historically performed well with suburban, middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them in recent years due to the rise of the Tea Party movement and later the Make America Great Again movement.[46] The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the 2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, because the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there significantly.[47]

According to recent polling, generational and racial polarization appear to have significantly decreased, with Hispanic, Asian, Arab, and youth voters increasingly trending towards the Republican Party, while voters over the age of 65 and whites appear to have become increasingly Democratic.[48][49][50][51][52]

Impact of third-party voting

While independent/third-party candidates often do better in polls than actual election performance,[53] early polling suggests there could be a strong showing for third-party candidates in 2024. Third-party candidates currently have the strongest showing in polls since Ross Perot's high poll numbers in the 1990s.[54] Polls are especially high for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who dropped out of the Democratic Party primaries to run as an independent.[55]

Campaign issues

Abortion

Abortion access is expected to be a key topic during the campaign. This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of two major court rulings that affected access to abortion. The first is the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion law entirely to the states, including bans on abortion.[12] The second is the 2023 Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. U.S. Food and Drug Administration, in which a federal judge in northwest Texas overturned the FDA's approval of mifepristone in 2000, which could potentially pull the medication from the market if upheld by higher courts.[56] Both rulings have received strong support from Republican politicians and lawmakers.[12][56]

Democrats are predominantly supportive of viewing abortion access as a right[57] while Republican politicians generally favor significantly restricting the legality of abortion.[58] By April 2023, a large majority of Republican-controlled states had passed near-total bans on abortion, rendering it "largely illegal" throughout much of the United States. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, there are 15 states that have de jure early stage bans on abortion without exceptions for rape or incest.[12]

Democracy

Joe Biden is expected to frame the election as a battle for democracy, which echoes Biden's framing of current geopolitics as "the battle between democracy and autocracy."[59] Joe Biden previously cited democracy and "a battle for the soul of our nation" as a key message of his successful 2020 run, and has repeatedly touched on the issue of democracy since announcing his candidacy for the 2020 presidential election.[20]

Donald Trump's 2024 campaign has been criticized by the media for making increasingly violent and authoritarian statements,[60][61][62] which some believe the Trump campaign is intentionally leaning into.[63] Trump's previous comments suggesting he can "terminate" the Constitution to reverse his election loss,[64][65] his claim that he would only be a dictator on "day one" of his presidency and not after,[lower-alpha 1] his promise to use the Justice Department to go after his political enemies,[72] attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, continued Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election, and Trump's baseless predictions of vote fraud in the 2024 election,[73] have raised concerns over the state of democracy in America.[63][74][75][76]

Democracy is expected to be a large issue in the 2024 election. An AP-NORC poll of 1,074 adults conducted between November 30 to December 4, 2023, found that 62% of adults said democracy could be at risk depending on who wins the next election.[19]

Economic issues

The COVID-19 pandemic left behind significant economic effects which are likely to persist into 2024.[77] A period of high inflation began in 2021, caused by a confluence of events including the pandemic and a supply-chain crisis, which was then heightened by economic effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.[78][79] Opinion polling over Biden's handling of the economy has consistently been negative since late 2021.[80] Voters often cite economic issues as their top issue for the 2024 election.[81][82]

Women were particularly affected by the economic downturn in the wake of the pandemic, particularly those who left their work for childcare responsibilities.[83] Temporary childcare measures, including an expanded child tax credit as part of the American Rescue Plan, were introduced as methods designed to help the economic situation of parents, but these would expire before the 2024 election.[84]

Education

Under the Biden administration, several rounds of student loan forgiveness have been issued, totaling over $32 billion.[85] In August 2022, a plan was unveiled that would eliminate $10,000 in student loan debt for single graduates making less than $125,000 or married couples making less than $250,000.[86] $20,000 would have been eliminated for borrowers of Pell Grants, a program aimed at providing need-based assistance.[87] In June 2023, this plan was overturned in the Supreme Court decision Biden v. Nebraska.[88][89] Biden intends to implement new methods of student debt relief, working around the Supreme Court decision.[90] Biden stated that offering universal pre-kindergarten services as well as caregiver support would be a priority of a second term.[91]

Some Republican candidates and prospective candidates see education as a winning campaign issue. Dozens of states have created laws preventing the instruction of critical race theory, an academic discipline focused on the examination of racial inequality. Supporters of the laws claim that conversations about racial identity are not appropriate for a school environment.[92][93][15] Critics of the laws against critical race theory claim they whitewash American history and act as memory laws to rewrite public memory of U.S. history.[94]

Foreign policy

The ongoing Israel–Hamas war and Russian invasion of Ukraine are expected to be significant issues of the campaign.[95]

The United States has provided significant military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[96][97][98] Democratic politicians and a significant number of Republican politicians have supported this plan, arguing that the United States has a significant role to play in "protecting democracy and fighting Russian aggression."[99] Some candidates, including Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, claim that Ukraine and suppressing Russian intervention should not be a significant interest to the United States, and that the plan should be more limited.[100] Vivek Ramaswamy favors ending U.S. military aid to Ukraine and would recognize Russian annexed territories.[101]

During the Israel–Hamas war, Biden announced "unequivocal" military support for Israel, and condemned the actions of Hamas and other Palestinian militants as terrorism.[102] Biden has requested 10.6 billion dollars of aid for Israel to Congress.[103] Kennedy condemned Hamas' attacks on Israeli civilians and declared support for aid to Israel.[104] 74% of Jewish voters have expressed approval of Joe Biden's support for Israel.[105] Biden's support for Israel has greatly damaged Muslim support for Democrats in polling.[106] Polling has indicated a significant divide between elite opinion of the Israel–Hamas war, which has overwhelmingly taken the side of Israel, and the general public.[107] A plurality of Americans oppose American military aid to Israel and believe that the United States "should be a neutral mediator" in the Israel-Palestinian conflict rather than taking a side.[107] Among voters 18-34, 66 percent disapprove of Israel's conduct during the war and 20 percent approve, while a majority take the side of Palestinians predominately in the conflict.[108]

Healthcare issues

Trump has made repealing the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, a key issue of the 2024 election.[14] The issue of healthcare and drug policy, including whether the United States should shift to a universal healthcare system,[109] and the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to play a key role in the 2024 presidential election.[110] According to Deseret News, Kennedy has attempted to moderate his anti-vaccine position before the election, stating that he is not against all vaccines, and telling Bill Maher in an interview that "all I'm saying" is that "let's test [vaccines] the way we test other medicines. That does not seem unreasonable".[111] West is running on a platform of medicare-for-all.[112]

LGBT rights

In recent years, conservative politicians in state legislatures have introduced a large and growing number of bills that restrict the rights of LGBT people, especially transgender people.[113][114]

In a February 2023 campaign message, Donald Trump said that if reelected, he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders, claimed that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left", and would enact nearly a dozen policies that would target transgender Americans. Ron DeSantis has signed several anti-LGBT laws as Governor of Florida, including the controversial Florida Parental Rights in Education Act, referred to by critics as the "Don't Say Gay" law, which prohibits speaking about sexual orientation and gender identity in Florida public schools.[115]

Democratic Party

On April 25, 2023, President Joe Biden announced his run for re-election, keeping Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate.[116][117] Consequently, Republicans have intensified their criticism of Harris since Biden declared his intention to run for office.[118] During late 2021, as Biden was facing low approval ratings, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election,[119] and some prominent Democrats (Representatives Carolyn Maloney, Tim Ryan and former Representative Joe Cunningham) publicly urged Biden not to run.[120][121][122] In addition to Biden's unpopularity, many are concerned about his age; he was the oldest person to assume the office at age 78 and would be 82 at the end of his first term. If re-elected, he would be 86 at the end of his second term.[123] According to an NBC poll released in April 2023, 70 percent of Americans—including 51 percent of Democrats—believe Biden should not run for a second term. Almost half said it was because of his age. According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, Biden's current approval rating is 41 percent, while 55 percent disapprove.[124] There was also speculation that Biden may face a primary challenge from a member of the Democratic Party's progressive faction.[125][126] After Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, many believed the chances that Biden would run for and win his party's nomination had increased.[127]

Author Marianne Williamson announced her candidacy in February 2023, before Biden announced his own candidacy for re-election. Williamson had previously sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.[128] In April 2023, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his candidacy for the nomination.[129] A member of the Kennedy family, he is an environmental lawyer and he promotes conspiracy theories.[130][131] On October 9, 2023, Kennedy announced that he would be dropping out of the Democratic primary and would instead run as an independent candidate.[132] Representative Dean Phillips announced his run against Biden on October 26.[133]

Declared candidates

Declared major candidates for the 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date		 States won Delegates won total popular vote Ref

Joe Biden		 November 20, 1942
(age 81)
Scranton, Pennsylvania		 President of the United States
(2021–present)
Vice President of the United States
(2009–2017)
U.S. Senator from Delaware
(1973–2009)
Delaware
Campaign

April 25, 2023
FEC filing[134]
Website

 FL[135] [136]

Dean Phillips		 January 20, 1969
(age 54)
Saint Paul, Minnesota		 U.S. Representative from MN-03
(2019–present)
CEO of Phillips Distilling Company
(2000–2012)
Minnesota
Campaign

October 26, 2023
FEC filing[137]
Website

 [138]

Marianne Williamson		 July 8, 1952
(age 71)
Houston, Texas		 Author
Founder of Project Angel Food
Candidate for President in 2020
California
Campaign

March 4, 2023
FEC filing[139]
Website

 [140]

Withdrawn candidates before the primaries

Withdrawn major candidates for the 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
announced		 Campaign
suspended		 Campaign Ref.

Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.		 January 17, 1954
(age 70)
Washington, D.C.		 Environmental lawyer
Founder of Children's Health Defense
Founder of Waterkeeper Alliance		  California April 19, 2023 October 9, 2023
(running as an independent)
Campaign
FEC filing[141][142]
Website		 [143][144]

Republican Party

Donald Trump, the then-incumbent president, was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election and is not term-limited to run again in 2024, making him the fifth ex-president to seek a second non-consecutive term. If he wins, Trump would be the second president to win a non-consecutive term, after Grover Cleveland in 1892.[145] Trump filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on November 15, 2022, and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar-a-Lago the same day.[146][147] Trump is considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, following his 2024 campaign announcement on November 15, 2022.[148] Trump announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, his former vice president Mike Pence will not be his running mate.[149]

In March 2023, Trump was indicted over his hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.[150] Trump was again indicted in June over his handling of classified documents which contained materials sensitive to national security. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges related to these indictments.[151][152]

Trump could become ineligible to be on the ballot in Colorado, with the Colorado Supreme Court ruling in its December 2023 decision Anderson v. Griswold that he violated the Insurrection Clause of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution for his role in the January 6 United States Capitol attack, though the decision is currently stayed.[153] The Supreme Court of the United States agreed to hear Trump's appeal for the Colorado case, scheduling oral arguments for February 8.[154] Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows also ruled in December 2023 that Trump cannot appear on the ballot in Maine, also citing the Insurrection Clause, that decision is also stayed pending appeal.[155][11]

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is seen as the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination; he raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022 and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.[156][157][158] On May 24, 2023, DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in an online conversation with Twitter CEO Elon Musk. "American decline is not inevitable—it is a choice...I am running for president of the United States to lead our great American comeback", DeSantis added. His campaign stated to have raised $1 million in the first hour following the announcement of his candidacy.[159] Speaking on Fox & Friends, he stated that he would "destroy leftism" in the United States.[160] At the end of July 2023, FiveThirtyEight's national polling average of the Republican primaries had Trump at 52 percent, and DeSantis at 15.[161]

Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley has since gained ground and is in second place in New Hampshire, in polling averages compiled by RealClearPolitics, as of early November 2023.[162]

Declared candidates

Declared major candidates for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date		 Bound delegates Contests won Popular vote Ref.

Donald Trump		 June 14, 1946
(age 77)
Queens, New York		 President of the United States
(2017–2021)
Chairman of The Trump Organization
(1971–2017)
Florida[lower-alpha 2]
Campaign
November 15, 2022
FEC filing[163][164][165]
Website		 20
(50.0%)		 1
IA		 56,260 (51.0%) [166]

Ron DeSantis		 September 14, 1978
(age 45)
Jacksonville, Florida		 Governor of Florida
(2019–present)
U.S. Representative from FL-06
(2013–2018)
Florida
Campaign
May 24, 2023
FEC filing[167][168][169]
Website		 9
(22.5%)		 None 23,420 (21.2%) [170]

Nikki Haley		 January 20, 1972
(age 51)
Bamberg, South Carolina		 Ambassador to the United Nations
(2017–2018)
Governor of South Carolina
(2011–2017)
South Carolina State Representative
(2005–2011)
South Carolina
Campaign
February 14, 2023
FEC filing[171]
Website		 8
(20.0%)		 None 21,085 (19.1%) [172]

Withdrew during the primaries

Withdrawn major candidates for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
announced		 Campaign
suspended		 Campaign Bound delegates Contests won Popular vote Ref.

Vivek Ramaswamy		 August 9, 1985
(age 38)
Cincinnati, Ohio		 Executive chairman of Strive Asset Management
(2022–2023)
CEO of Roivant Sciences
(2014–2021)
Ohio		 February 21, 2023 January 15, 2024
(endorsed Trump)
Campaign
FEC filing[173][174]
Website		 3
(7.5%)		 None 8,449 (7.7%) [175][176][177][178]

Asa Hutchinson		 December 3, 1950
(age 73)
Bentonville, Arkansas		 Governor of Arkansas
(2015–2023)
Under Secretary of Homeland Security
(2003–2005)
Administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration
(2001–2003)
Arkansas		 April 26, 2023 January 16, 2024
Campaign
FEC filing[179]
Website		 0
(0.0%)		 None 191 (0.2%) [180][181]

Withdrawn candidates before the primaries

Withdrawn major candidates for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
announced		 Campaign
suspended		 Campaign total popular vote Ref.

Chris Christie		 September 6, 1962
(age 61)
Newark, New Jersey		 Governor of New Jersey
(2010–2018)
Candidate for president in 2016
U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey
(2002–2008)
  New Jersey June 6, 2023 January 10, 2024
Campaign
FEC filing[182]
Website		 36 [183][184]

Doug Burgum		 August 1, 1956
(age 67)
Arthur, North Dakota		 Governor of North Dakota
(2016–present)
Senior VP of Microsoft Business Solutions Group
(2002–2007)
President of Great Plains Software
(1984–2001)
  North Dakota June 7, 2023 December 4, 2023
(endorsed Trump)
Campaign
FEC filing[185]
Website		 0 [186][187][188]

Tim Scott		 September 19, 1965
(age 58)
North Charleston, South Carolina		 U.S. Senator from South Carolina
(2013–present)
U.S. Representative from SC-01
(2011–2013)
South Carolina State Representative
(2009–2011)
  South Carolina May 19, 2023
Exploratory committee:
April 12, 2023		 November 12, 2023
Campaign
FEC filing[189][190]
Website		 0 [191][192]

Mike Pence		 June 7, 1959
(age 64)
Columbus, Indiana		 Vice President of the United States
(2017–2021)
Governor of Indiana
(2013–2017)
U.S. Representative from Indiana
(2001–2013)		  Indiana June 5, 2023 October 28, 2023
Campaign
FEC filing[193]
Website		 0 [194][195]

Larry Elder		 April 27, 1952
(age 71)
Los Angeles, California		 Host of The Larry Elder Show
(1993–2022)
Candidate for Governor of California in the 2021 recall election		  California April 20, 2023 October 26, 2023
(endorsed Trump)
Campaign
FEC filing[196]
Website		 0 [197][198]

Perry Johnson		 January 23, 1948
(age 75)
Dolton, Illinois		 Founder of Perry Johnson Registrars, Inc.
(1994–present)
Disqualified candidate for Governor of Michigan in 2022		  Michigan March 2, 2023 October 20, 2023
(endorsed Trump)
Campaign
FEC filing[199]
Website		 0 [200][201][202]

Will Hurd		 August 19, 1977
(age 46)
San Antonio, Texas		 U.S. Representative from TX-23
(2015–2021)		  Texas June 22, 2023 October 9, 2023
(endorsed Haley)
Campaign
FEC filing[203]
Website		 0 [204][205]

Francis Suarez		 October 6, 1977
(age 45)
Miami, Florida		 Mayor of Miami
(2017–present)
Member of the Miami City Commission
(2009–2017)		  Florida June 14, 2023 August 29, 2023
Campaign
FEC filing[206]
Website[lower-alpha 3]		 0 [207][208]

Independent and third party candidates

Numerous third party and independent candidates have announced presidential runs.

Anti-vaccine activist and environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has drawn support among independent and anti-establishment voters disillusioned with mainstream American politics, winning a plurality among independents in some polls.[209][210] He has faced criticism for supporting various conspiracy theories, particularly on the John F. Kennedy assassination and COVID-19 vaccines.[211] Left-wing activist and intellectual Cornel West announced a campaign as an independent after initially announcing a run as a People's Party and later a Green Party candidate.[112] Centrist political organization No Labels, which helped create the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus in the United States House of Representatives, also said they would consider running a third-party candidate, citing popular polling for such a candidate.[212] Some established third parties, such as the American Solidarity Party, the Prohibition Party, and the Party for Socialism and Liberation have announced presidential nominees, while others, such as the Libertarian Party and the Green Party have yet to hold their primaries.

Notable party nominations

The following individuals have been nominated by their respective parties to run for president.

With partial ballot access

These parties have ballot access in some states, but not enough to get 270 votes to win the presidency, without running a write-in campaign.

American Solidarity Party
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date		 Campaign Ref

Peter Sonski		 1962 (age 61–62)
Massachusetts		 Connecticut local politician
Director of the Knights of Columbus Museum		  Connecticut June 13, 2023
FEC filing[213]
Website		 [214]

Without ballot access

Notable declared candidates

The following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.

Independents

Declared major independent candidates
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date		 Campaign Ref

Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.		 January 17, 1954
(age 70)
Washington, D.C.		 Environmental lawyer
Founder of Children's Health Defense
Founder of Waterkeeper Alliance
Anti-vaccine activist		  California April 19, 2023
(as a Democrat)
October 9, 2023
(as an independent)
Campaign
FEC filing[220][221][222]
Website		 [223][224]

Cornel West		 June 2, 1953
(age 70)
Tulsa, Oklahoma		 Academic and activist  California June 5, 2023
(for the People's Party)
June 14, 2023
(for the Green Party)
October 5, 2023
(as an independent)
Campaign
FEC filing[225][226][227]
Website		 [228]
Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Green Party

Publicly expressed interest

As of January 2024, the following notable individuals have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Potential candidates

As of January 2024, there has been speculation about the potential candidacy of the following notable individuals within the previous six months.

Withdrawn candidates

The following notable individual(s) announced and then suspended their campaigns before the election:

Polling and forecasts

Polling aggregation

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
RealClearPolitics December 10, 2023 – January 9, 2024 January 9, 2024 44.9% 45.5% 9.6% Trump +0.6
Race to the WH through January 2, 2024 January 7, 2024 43.6% 44.8% 11.6% Trump +1.2
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill through January 4, 2024 January 7, 2024 43.2% 44.1% 12.7% Trump +0.9
Average 43.9% 44.8% 11.4% Trump +0.9

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
Race to the WH through December 14, 2023 December 23, 2023 37.6% 38.8% 14.4% 9.2% Trump +1.2
RealClearPolitics October 12, 2023 – January 9, 2024 January 9, 2024 37.1% 38.0% 15.0% 9.9% Trump +0.9
Average 37.3% 38.4% 14.7% 9.6% Trump +1.1

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		 Cornel
West
Independent		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
Race to the WH through December 17, 2023 December 23, 2023 35.5% 39.3% 12.5% 2.8% 9.9% Trump +3.8
RealClearPolitics October 17 – December 18, 2023 December 23, 2023 35.6% 40.6% 13.0% 2.0% 8.8% Trump +5.0
Average 35.6% 40.0% 12.8% 2.4% 9.3% Trump +4.4

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Ron
DeSantis
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill through January 2, 2024 January 7, 2024 44.5% 42.6% 12.9% Biden +1.9
Race to the WH through January 2, 2024 January 7, 2024 44.1% 44.0% 11.9% Biden +0.1
RealClearPolitics November 2, 2023 – January 2, 2024 January 7, 2024 46.3% 46.0% 7.7% Biden +0.3
Average 45.0% 44.2% 10.8% Biden +0.8

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Nikki
Haley
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill through January 2, 2024 January 7, 2024 39.1% 41.3% 19.6% Haley +2.2
Race to the WH through January 2, 2024 January 7, 2024 41.0% 43.7% 15.3% Haley +2.7
RealClearPolitics November 27, 2023 – January 2, 2024 January 7, 2024 40.4% 43.7% 15.9% Haley +3.3
Average 40.2% 42.9% 16.9% Haley +2.7

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Kamala
Harris
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
Race to the WH through November 13, 2023 November 16, 2023 43.4% 48.1% 8.5% Trump +4.7
RealClearPolitics November 10–16, 2023 November 25, 2023 42.5% 51.0% 6.5% Trump +8.5
Average 42.9% 49.6% 7.5% Trump +6.7

Forecasts

Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean" or "leans": slight advantage
  • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by all forecasters (The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections) are omitted for brevity.

State EVs PVI[247] 2020
result		 2020
margin[248]		 IE
April 26,
2023[249]		 Sabato
January 3,
2024[250]		 Cook
December 19,
2023[251]		 CNalysis
December 30,
2023[252]
Alaska 3 R+8 52.8% R 10.06% Solid R Likely R Solid R Very Likely R
Arizona 11 R+2 49.4% D 0.31% Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Florida 30 R+3 51.2% R 3.36% Lean R Likely R Likely R Very Likely R
Georgia 16 R+3 49.5% D 0.24% Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Iowa 6 R+6 53.1% R 8.20% Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R
Maine[lower-alpha 7] 2 D+2 53.1% D 9.07% Likely D Likely D Likely D Very Likely D
ME–02[lower-alpha 7] 1 R+6 52.3% R 7.44% Lean R Lean R Likely R Very Likely R
Michigan 15 R+1 50.6% D 2.78% Tilt D Lean D Tossup Tossup
Minnesota 10 D+1 52.4% D 7.11% Lean D Likely D Likely D Very Likely D
NE–02[lower-alpha 7] 1 EVEN 52.0% D 6.50% Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D
Nevada 6 R+1 50.1% D 2.39% Tilt D Tossup Tossup Tossup
New Hampshire 4 D+1 52.7% D 7.35% Lean D Lean D Likely D Very Likely D
New Mexico 5 D+3 54.3% D 10.79% Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D
North Carolina 16 R+3 49.9% R 1.35% Tilt R Lean R Lean R Tossup
Ohio 17 R+6 53.3% R 8.03% Likely R Likely R Solid R Very Likely R
Pennsylvania 19 R+2 50.0% D 1.16% Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup
Texas 40 R+5 52.1% R 5.58% Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R
Virginia 13 D+3 54.1% D 10.11% Likely D Likely D Solid D Very Likely D
Wisconsin 10 R+2 49.5% D 0.63% Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Overall D - 247
R - 235
56 tossups 		D - 260
R - 235
43 tossups 		D - 226
R - 235
77 tossups 		D - 226
R - 219
93 tossups

Debates

The Commission on Presidential Debates announced on November 20, 2023, it will host four debates in 2024.

  1. September 16 at Texas State University in San Marcos, Texas (presidential debate).
  2. September 25 at Lafayette College in Easton, Pennsylvania. (vice presidential debate).
  3. October 1 at Virginia State University in Petersburg, Virginia (presidential debate).
  4. October 9 at University of Utah in Salt Lake City, Utah (presidential debate).

To qualify for the debates, candidates must appear on enough ballots to be able to win a majority of the electoral votes, must be constitutionally eligible, and poll an average of at least 15% in national polls from organizations selected by the commission.[253] Currently, Kennedy has the polling numbers that would allow him to be on the stage, which could mark the first third-party candidate to be on the stage since Ross Perot in 1992 if his polling trends continue.[254][255]

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Attributed to multiple references:[66][67][68][69][70][71]
  2. ↑ Trump's state of residence in 2016 was New York, but his state of residence changed to Florida when he moved to Mar-a-Lago in 2019.
  3. ↑ Archived August 23, 2023, at the Wayback Machine
  4. ↑ Ayyadurai is not eligible to serve as president as he is not a natural-born citizen, but he claims he can run for office.
  5. ↑ Cassidy is a member of the Republican Party, but has expressed willingness to talk to the group No Labels about a third-party run.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  7. 1 2 3 Unlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.

References

  1. ↑ "Election Planning Calendar" (PDF). Essex-Virginia.org. Essex County, Virginia. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 7, 2016. Retrieved February 6, 2016.
  2. ↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
  3. ↑ Singman, Brooke (November 7, 2022). "Donald Trump announces 2024 re-election run for president". Fox News. Archived from the original on November 16, 2022. Retrieved November 16, 2022.
  4. ↑ STAT, Seth Mnookin. "How Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Distorted Vaccine Science". Scientific American. Archived from the original on January 12, 2017. Retrieved January 12, 2024.
  5. ↑ The Anti-Vaxx Playbook (PDF) (Report). Center for Countering Digital Hate. 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 9, 2022. Retrieved June 9, 2023.
  6. ↑ Pellish, Aaron (October 9, 2023). "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announces independent run for president, ending Democratic primary challenge to Biden". CNN. Archived from the original on October 9, 2023. Retrieved November 16, 2023.
  7. ↑ Benson, Samuel (November 2, 2023). "RFK Jr.'s big gamble". Deseret News. Archived from the original on November 21, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023. Early polls show Kennedy polling in the teens or low 20s
  8. ↑ Enten, Harry (November 11, 2023). "How RFK Jr. could change the outcome of the 2024 election". CNN. Archived from the original on November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  9. ↑ Halpert, Madeline; Drenon, Brandon (December 19, 2023). "Colorado Supreme Court kicks Trump off ballot, citing 'insurrection'". BBC News. Archived from the original on December 20, 2023. Retrieved December 21, 2023.
  10. ↑ "Trump back on ballot in Colorado while state Republicans appeal ban to Supreme Court". CBS News. December 28, 2023. Archived from the original on December 29, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
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  12. 1 2 3 4 For sources on this, see:
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  18. ↑ "Here's where the 2024 presidential candidates stand on LGBTQ+ issues". ABC News. Archived from the original on December 6, 2023. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
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